In our article here on Monday 21st January we highlighted downside risks for the Euro into Thursday’s ECB Meeting. The Euro stayed negative ahead of the Meeting, and has seen further weakness since, with EURUSD surrendering notable support (see below). This leaves the Euro vulnerable against major currencies, and in particular versus the US Dollar … Continued
Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in-Chief for FXExplained.co.uk, the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, plus Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital.
At FXExplained.co.uk Steve is the Editor-in-Chief, alongside producing numerous articles for the site. The ability to be able to reach out to a wide, global audience with his own analysis and also assist and nurture other authors in their creative process makes this a role that Steve values deeply.
Here are Steve’s tips on what pages to follow closely on FxExplained: Current market analysis and Best trading app in UK.
The Market Chartist
The Market Chartist was founded in 2012 and provides daily technical analysis reports, with written commentary and key support/ resistance levels to an institutional, professional and retail client base. The 30+ daily reports include European, UK and US Bonds & Equity Index Futures, G10 currencies, UK Natural Gas, TTF Gas, German Power, EUA Emissions and LME Base Metals.
As The Market Chartist, Steve has won many awards from the Technical Analyst Magazine. He was the 2016 & 2013 Winner (plus 2014 Runner Up) for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy and winner of Best FX Research & Strategy in 2012. He was also a finalist in the Technical Analyst of the Year category each year for 2012-2017.
Other Current Positions
Steve is also the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, a role he really enjoys. He appreciates the opportunity to be able to educate a diverse array of students in all aspects of the financial market’s world. Steve says “to be able to be a part of transforming an individual’s life through education is truly a privilege and very exciting”.
In his role as Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital, Steve supports and advises the investment management team by employing his extensive fundamental market experience, alongside his wealth of technical analysis knowledge. This allows him to add significant value to investment decisions.
Steve also writes extensively for numerous financial markets sites including: FxStreet.com, TechnicalAnalyst.co.uk, InsideFutures.com, BarChart.com, StockTwits.com, StockBrokers.com, AskTraders.com and Investing.com.
Previous to this, Steve was also a Senior Lecturer at The London Academy of Trading where he fully began his journey into the world of education. It was here that he honed his skills as a lecture and mentor in the world of financial markets education.
Vast Technical Analysis Experience
Steve has also helped technical analysis push into a new era in his previous role as Director at Vega Insight. Vega Insight is a relatively new company with a specific focus on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in global commodity and broader financial markets, with special focus on Energy. In his role Steve was responsible for the technical analysis inputs to the Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.
Steve spent 2009-2012 as a Director in the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse. Steve managed the FX division, responsible for the reports, forecasts and bank wide research for G10 & Emerging Markets currencies. In this role he also covered all major asset classes including Equity Indices, Rates & Credit, plus Commodities.
Steve spent most of his career at Merrill Lynch for 15 years from 1994-2009. The last ten years was as a Vice President in the research department as a technical analyst, responsible for daily reports, client presentations, plus in-house and client education programs. Prior to this, Steve was in the Fixed Income derivatives sales team where he managed the Italian Futures desk (BTP and EuroLira) on LIFFE (the London International Financial Futures Exchange). He was responsible for a four-man sales team, who consistently produced high volume of sales from both in-house and external clients.
He is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Master’s degree in politics, Philosophy & Economics from Oxford University (Lincoln College).
2019 has seen a strong start for most global equity markets with major averages progressing higher by 5-10%, after weakness seen in December 2018. However, the recoveries have slowed and slightly corrected this week. This has partially been a result of no further positive developments in the major geopolitical risks that are still hanging over … Continued
The GB Pound has retained a positive tone into this week with a strong rebound against most major currencies on Tuesday. This is in the face of ongoing Brexit uncertainty, though the perception is that a “no deal” Brexit is becoming less of a likely outcome, which is seen as a positive for the Pound. … Continued
Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been unable to sustain strong rallies through mid-January, that were evident since the “flash crash” selloffs at the very start of 2019. This has been particularly disappointing, given global equity markets have continued to push higher, with the Australian and New Zealand Dollars usually benefiting as perceived “risk” currencies during … Continued
The Euro has come under broad negative pressures through mid-January, driven by continuing political turmoil in France and Italy, plus in Greece, Tsipras called and closely survived a vote of no confidence. Furthermore, the European Central Bank had been expected to begin to tighten up their very accommodative monetary policy and maybe start hiking rates … Continued
In a prior report earlier this week we highlighted growing risks of a more bullish technical shift for the GB Pound, in particular noting bullish threats versus the generally weak US Dollar. Although the US Dollar has actually managed to post some notable corrective gains against other major currencies this week (Yen, Euro, the risk currencies … Continued
Global equity markets have enjoyed a positive start to 2019 and have been rallying in most instances since straight after the Christmas holiday. This solid tone has been a reaction to; a more dovish Federal reserve tone since the end of 2018, an improvement in the US-Sino trade negations and the ability of markets to … Continued
The key Brexit vote came and went on Tuesday evening with a far larger defat for the government than anticipated, but with the net impact on UK financial markets muted. The GB Pound saw a significant selloff with GBPUSD lower before and after the vote, but then a strong intraday rebound leaves GBPUSD in a … Continued
Global equity indices have posted solid, sideways consolidation activity over the past week, defending support levels from the recent early 2019 recovery rallies. The strong advances so far this year have been driven by both a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve in the US and a perception of positive progress on trade talks … Continued
Last week we highlighted upside risks for GBPUSD as we entered the key Brexit debate here, and with the vote now looming this week, GBPUSD has already made a technically positive statement. The push above the key 1.2840/64 area has signalled an intermediate-term shift from a bearish trend to a range environment, with risks skewed … Continued
In articles already this week here and here we have highlighted basing effort by global equity averages (the S&P 500 and DAX). These technical bottoming attempts have been reinforced through this week from the fundamental side by apparent progress in the US-Sino trade talks and further dovish comments from Fed speakers, with the FOMC Minutes on … Continued
EURUSD saw a surge higher on Wednesday, primarily a reaction to an ongoing weakening US Dollar, as opposed to a particularly strong Euro. US Dollar weakness has been a theme for early 2019, given the more dovish tone from the Fed from late 2018 and in particular from FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC Minutes … Continued
A shift to a more “risk on” environment has continued to develop through early 2019, building on latter 2018 recovery efforts across major European, US and Asian equity markets. This positive price action has been reflected by the major global averages overcoming notable technical resistance levels and was further enhanced by particularly strong price action … Continued
This week saw the return to business for the UK Parliament and from Wednesday 9ht January the debate restarts on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. At the moment, the high expectation is that this deal will struggle to get voted through, and the coming days will be of interest, possibly giving clues as to … Continued
A very erratic tone for global equity markets into late 2018 and to start early 2019, but the first week of the new year ended on a positive with risks skewed towards the upside. A global equity market selloff into the Christmas holiday was then followed by a robust rebound before the end of the … Continued
Although maybe driven by illiquidity at the start of a new year, the surge and the very beginning of 2019 trading above 1.1500 has produced an intermediate-term bullish shift. Furthermore, and despite the subsequent setback, this positive price action sets risks to the upside for Wednesday. For Today: We see an upside bias for 1.500/05 … Continued
The “risk off” activity seen from early December has intensified over the past week, with global slowdown concerns impacting negatively on the major commodity currencies, including the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. Furthermore, alongside and partially driven by this “risk off” theme, the Oil price continues its path to lower prices as evident throughout … Continued
A rate hike by the Fed as expected on Wednesday 19th December, but the market had also anticipated a more dovish shift in overall tone. The more cautious tone going into 2019 was expected by global markets, given growing signs of a global slowdown, a softening of the US data and also the selloffs already … Continued
A further “risk off” move across global equity markets on Tuesday (as seen from mid-December), and as we highlighted in yesterday’s report here, driven by US equity averages breaking through Q4 lows and now in the case of the S&P 500 to prod the 2018 low. Additionally, European equity averages have pushed down close to … Continued
The mid-December “risk off” moves across global financial markets (reacting to fears of a global slowdown), were reinforced on Monday by US equity averages plunging through recent Q4 lows. Moreover, this has placed the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 all close to he 2018 lows, set in Q1. Furthermore, … Continued
USDJPY remains very much defined by an intermediate-term, broader range (we see as 114.21 and 112.20). But the recent “risk off” move across global capital markets, in reaction to fears of a global slowdown, have seen the US Dollar preferred as a safe haven currency, rallying against most major currencies and even versus the Japanese … Continued
Global equity averages have tried rebound effort over the past week into mid-December, after the rather aggressive selloff seen early in the month to new multi-month lows. The recovery efforts into mid-month have reflected some relief that the trade war truce between the US and China is holding and optimism that behind the scenes progress … Continued
Theresa May won the Conservative Party vote of no confidence in her leadership on Wednesday, with the GB Pound rallying ahead of the vote on anticipation of a positive outcome for the Prime Minister, with another unknown removed from the complex Brexit equation. However, Sterling then weakened after the vote, on a “buy the rumour … Continued
A rebound failure and then a plunge back lower Tuesday from below 1.1409 resistance to push below 1.1348 and 1.1320 supports, rejecting the erratic December recovery effort and flipping risks lower for Wednesday. The plunge through 1.1300 in the first half of November set an intermediate-term bear trend. For Today: We see a downside bias … Continued
The GB Pound FX rate was already looking vulnerable in the run in to the previously scheduled vote in Parliament today on the Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. However, the cancellation/ postponement of this vote saw the Pound sell off aggressive early across major G10 currencies, with GBPUSD sending a particularly negative technical signal. The … Continued
In two reports here late last week and here we highlighted the intermediate-term bearish technical signals sent by European and UK equity indices (the German DAX, the pan-European DJ EuroSTOXX 50 and the UK’s FTSE 100) A lacklustre rebound effort by these indices and US equity averages on Friday sustains the short-term negative theme and … Continued
In yesterday’s report here we noted the plunge lower by the FTSE 100 future for an intermediate-term bearish technical shift. Further losses for the FTSE 100 on Thursday reinforced this view, with the UK benchmark average joined in the negative technical development by major European equity indices. Both the German DAX index and the pan-European … Continued
A plunge lower overnight by the FTSE 100 future has highlighted more than an upside rejection, with an intermediate-term bearish technical shift. The UK benchmark average pushed higher to start the week after the US-Sino trade war truce had appeared to signal a skewed upside risk for global equity indices into December. However, the subsequent … Continued
Brexit rumours and developments are intensifying as we approach to the key December 11th vote in Parliament. This is encouraging Sterling to undergo even more erratic and volatile intraday price action than we have become accustomed to. Tuesday saw an initial spike higher for GBPUSD in reaction to the report that the UK could unilaterally … Continued
The G20 Summit at the start of December produced an agreement for a 90-day truce between President Xi of China and President Trump of the US in relation to the Sino-US Trade War that has intensified through 2018. This is viewed in global financial markets as a “risk on” event, thereby encouraging higher prices for … Continued
This weekend saw President’s Xi and Trump of China and the US respectively meet an agree to a year-end truce in the Trade war between their nations, that has escalated throughout 2018. This is viewed in global markets as a “risk on” event and should benefit riskier assets into year-end. In the equity markets, this … Continued
The Cable spot FX rate (GBPUSD) has retained a more negative outlook, despite recent losses and weakness for the US currency. A more dovish tone was indicated in Wednesday’s speech by Jerome Powell, with the Fed Chairman signalling that rates were close to the Fed’s “neutral rate”. This saw the Eurodollar, interest rate market price … Continued
An apparent shift to a more dovish tone by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech on Wednesday. Powell said that rates were near to the Fed’s neutral rate, which saw the market start to price in closer to only one rate hike in 2019. Equities markets reacted positively to this development, with the US … Continued
EURUSD continues to track lower over the past week, rejecting the recovery effort seen earlier in November. This has reflected various elements, not least concerns regarding the Italian budget situation and the friction with the EC. Furthermore, ongoing Brexit concerns have pulled Sterling lower, with the Euro being dragged lower too. Finally, the US Dollar … Continued
Global equity averages ended the Thanksgiving week on a slightly positive note with rebound efforts, then staged resilient recovery rallies on Monday. Share markets have been buoyed by positive Holiday weekend spending data, alongside a relief rally after the EU and UK agreed Brexit terms (though the hard work is to be done in the … Continued
An indecisive tone has emerged for USDJPY in November, with competing forces of a weakening outlook from the equity markets, but a still relatively hawkish Fed (though recent FOMC Member comments have highlighted dovish tones). The mid-November USDJPY selloff rejected a more bullish intermediate-term tone, which still requires a break above 114.55. But the latter … Continued
European equity averages dipped modestly lower during a relatively quiet Thanksgiving Holiday session on Thursday. However, this is after markets staged solid rebounds Wednesday, but only after more significant losses earlier this week. This erratic price action leaves markets poised into Friday, which is a shortened session in the US, and from a seasonal perspective … Continued
The GB Pound has been in more of a consolidation mode over the past week, since the mid-November plunge after political concerns arose regarding the Brexit deal proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May. The anticipated Conservative Party leadership challenge has not materialised, as yet, which has limited the extent of any further losses. But GBPUSD … Continued
In Tuesday’s reports here, we highlighted downside vulnerability for global equity markets, with major indices suffering significant losses on Monday, with the US benchmark index, the S&P 500 spotlighted in our prior update. Further losses on Tuesday for the major US and European equity averages through important support factors have reinforced short-term vulnerability, with risks … Continued
Renewed equity market weakness globally over the past 24 hours has been driven by tech sector weakness in the US, with some blue-chip stocks including Apple and Facebook performing poorly on Tuesday (19th November). This has damaged broader recovery efforts from late last week and renewed bearish risks from losses seen earlier in November. Here … Continued
Earlier November losses for EURUSD through 1.1300 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift. However, a very slight easing of Brexit tensions at the end of last week, alongside no new negative developments with respect to the Italian budget have allowed for a corrective EURUSD rebound. The intermediate-term outlook remains negative for EURUSD, but the immediate risks … Continued
Despite a Brexit agreement Tuesday between the UK and EU, plus Prime Minister Theresa May pushing the deal through the Cabinet on Wednesday, resignations from the Cabinet on Thursday and broad political criticism have left little prospect for the proposed deal. Theresa May has seen aggressive opposition from within her own Conservative party, with a … Continued
After the UK and EU teams came to a Brexit deal agreement on Tuesday, Prime Minister Theresa May has, for now at least, sold this deal to the Cabinet. However, a far bigger hurdle remains, with the deal needing to be debated and passed through Parliament. Moreover, Theresa May is potentially fighting for her political … Continued
UK and EU Brexit negotiation teams are reportedly at an agreement, but the next key stage will be for PM Theresa May to sell the plan to the Cabinet, with a Cabinet meeting scheduled for 14:00 GMT today. Even if the Cabinet agrees to the terms, which is still far from a done deal, the … Continued
A “risk off” tone on Monday across global asset classes was driven by lower equity markets, in particular US equity averages and notably the tech sector. This has seen further US Dollar strength, with a particular casualty being EURUSD. Concerns regarding a deadline today (Tuesday 13th November) between the Italian government and the European Commission … Continued
A dip lower for global equity markets in the second half of last week, but the boarder recovery efforts from late October for “risk assets” remain intact. Furthermore, the antipodean “risk currencies”, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars produced solid gains in early November against the US Dollar, that have set up positive outlooks for … Continued
A firm US Dollar rebound has been seen over the past 24 hours since the FOMC rate decision and statement, with markets reacting to an expectation of another rate hike in December and likely three more in 2019. This was highlighted in the Fed statement by the view of a “strong rate” of overall economic … Continued
US equity averages have been in recovery mode from late October, even ahead of the uncertainty from the US midterm elections. With the midterm election uncertainty now lifted, global risk assets have responded positively to the election outcome, with US equity averages posting healthy gains on Wednesday. Moreover, European equity indices, which have been somewhat … Continued
The UK Pound has extended its strong advance against nearly all major currencies into early November, with the currency benefiting from ongoing positive rhetoric regarding a potential announcement of a successful Brexit deal in November. The Sterling versus US Dollar, GBPUSD advance has been in the spotlight, with the US Dollar weakening still further overnight … Continued
Today, Tuesday 6th November see the US electorate go to the polls, in the most watched midterm elections in many years. The outcome is far from certain, with the Republicans looking to hold onto both Houses of Congress, but with strong risk of losing the House and even possibly the Senate to the Democrats. The … Continued