An erratic, but overall negative consolidation theme has dominated May, with a very cautious tone going towards month-end, but the bias remains for a challenge lower and we see downside risks into Tuesday. On an intermediate-term basis, we see a broader range as 19.318 to 18.747, BUT with the skewed risks for an intermediate-term bearish … Continued
Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in-Chief for FXExplained.co.uk, the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, plus Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital.
At FXExplained.co.uk Steve is the Editor-in-Chief, alongside producing numerous articles for the site. The ability to be able to reach out to a wide, global audience with his own analysis and also assist and nurture other authors in their creative process makes this a role that Steve values deeply.
Here are Steve’s tips on what pages to follow closely on FxExplained: Current market analysis and Best trading app in UK.
The Market Chartist
The Market Chartist was founded in 2012 and provides daily technical analysis reports, with written commentary and key support/ resistance levels to an institutional, professional and retail client base. The 30+ daily reports include European, UK and US Bonds & Equity Index Futures, G10 currencies, UK Natural Gas, TTF Gas, German Power, EUA Emissions and LME Base Metals.
As The Market Chartist, Steve has won many awards from the Technical Analyst Magazine. He was the 2016 & 2013 Winner (plus 2014 Runner Up) for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy and winner of Best FX Research & Strategy in 2012. He was also a finalist in the Technical Analyst of the Year category each year for 2012-2017.
Other Current Positions
Steve is also the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, a role he really enjoys. He appreciates the opportunity to be able to educate a diverse array of students in all aspects of the financial market’s world. Steve says “to be able to be a part of transforming an individual’s life through education is truly a privilege and very exciting”.
In his role as Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital, Steve supports and advises the investment management team by employing his extensive fundamental market experience, alongside his wealth of technical analysis knowledge. This allows him to add significant value to investment decisions.
Steve also writes extensively for numerous financial markets sites including: FxStreet.com, TechnicalAnalyst.co.uk, InsideFutures.com, BarChart.com, StockTwits.com, StockBrokers.com, AskTraders.com and Investing.com.
Previous to this, Steve was also a Senior Lecturer at The London Academy of Trading where he fully began his journey into the world of education. It was here that he honed his skills as a lecture and mentor in the world of financial markets education.
Vast Technical Analysis Experience
Steve has also helped technical analysis push into a new era in his previous role as Director at Vega Insight. Vega Insight is a relatively new company with a specific focus on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in global commodity and broader financial markets, with special focus on Energy. In his role Steve was responsible for the technical analysis inputs to the Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.
Steve spent 2009-2012 as a Director in the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse. Steve managed the FX division, responsible for the reports, forecasts and bank wide research for G10 & Emerging Markets currencies. In this role he also covered all major asset classes including Equity Indices, Rates & Credit, plus Commodities.
Steve spent most of his career at Merrill Lynch for 15 years from 1994-2009. The last ten years was as a Vice President in the research department as a technical analyst, responsible for daily reports, client presentations, plus in-house and client education programs. Prior to this, Steve was in the Fixed Income derivatives sales team where he managed the Italian Futures desk (BTP and EuroLira) on LIFFE (the London International Financial Futures Exchange). He was responsible for a four-man sales team, who consistently produced high volume of sales from both in-house and external clients.
He is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Master’s degree in politics, Philosophy & Economics from Oxford University (Lincoln College).
The price recovery in cryptocurrencies in 2019 alongside the less aggressive volatility that was previously seen in 2018 has seen a resurgence of interest from traders in the cryptocurrency asset class. To this end, brokers have been bolstering their cryptocurrency offerings and here we take a look at April 2019 updates from CMC Markets. CMC … Continued
A spotlight in this report on the NZD cross currency rates, focusing on the New Zealand Dollar against the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. NZDJPY, NZDCHF and NZDCAD all stay bearish on an intermediate-term basis. NZDJPY sitting at cycle low Despite a small rebound on Friday after another new cycle low on Thursday, … Continued
Global financial markets continue to react negatively to global trade war concerns. Asian, European and US equity averages have all rolled back lower this week into late May, damaging rebound effort made from mid-May. This sets the immediate risks lower and starts to resume the negative tone set during the significant selloff in the first … Continued
In this article and accompanying video we look to explain the differences between Investing and Trading. The four main ways we can categorise the differences between Investing and Trading are by looking at: Time Frame Flexibility Leverage Returns Time frame Investing Investing is generally seen as a longer-term activity and by longer-term we tend to … Continued
USDNOK retains a positive short-term tone within a broader, intermediate-term range. EURNOK has a negative short-term bias, also in a neutral, intermediate-term environment. This tells us more about EURUSD than anything else, that the risks for EURUSD are to the downside. USDNOK upside threat A resilient consolidation for much of May, digesting the later April-early … Continued
A consolidation theme has emerged for the major US (and in fact European) equity averages over the past 1-2 weeks, with no significantly new bad news emerging from the ailing US-Sino trade negotiations. This has allowed equity markets to rebound and ease bear forces from the aggressive selloffs seen in the first half of May. … Continued
Another push higher Tuesday and again into Wednesday, reinforcing the previous tentative breakout from the Ascending Triangle pattern above 3.8594 and 3.8644 resistances, leaving both short- and intermediate-term bull themes intact and aiming higher for Wednesday. The intermediate-term outlook is bullish, sustained by 2019 solid consolidation above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 rally. … Continued
In our Monday report we highlighted ongoing Sterling weakness as Brexit talks between the Conservative and Labour parties have floundered amid the increasingly unstable position of Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May. The GB Pound did try a recovery on Tuesday (21st May) as PM May tried to bring a new version of her Brexit deal, … Continued
Another new cycle high on Tuesday through the earlier May peak at 9.6641, reinforcing the resilient consolidation theme from mid-May above the 9.5301 support level, sustaining both short- and intermediate-term bullish trends and aiming higher again for Tuesday. The April surge through 9.3488 resumed the intermediate-term bull trend, intact above 9.5301. For Today: We see … Continued
A resilient consolidation since mid-May, holding above the trend line support from earlier in May off of 1.3615, to approach last week’s cycle high at 1.3785, sustaining the short- and intermediate-term bull trends and aiming higher again for Tuesday. The intermediate-term bull trend was triggered above 1.3580 back in April and is fully intact whilst … Continued
Since mid-May a positive consolidation tone above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 14.326, off of 14.334, sustaining upside forces within the erratic, Triangle consolidation seen since March, but aiming higher for Tuesday. We see an intermediate-term range theme defined as 14.585 to 14.125, but with the bias skewed to the upside. For Today: We see … Continued
A rebound for the Australian Dollar on Sunday/Monday after the very unforeseen election result, with a win for the conservative coalition, with Labour previously expected to win. However, from a technical perspective resistance levels remained intact, whilst from a macroeconomic viewpoint, the absence of change was far from a bullish signal for the Australian Dollar. … Continued
With the shift in global financial markets to a “risk off” phase through the first half of May, currency markets have been dominated by a stronger Yen and US Dollar as safe havens, whilst “risk currencies’, such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have weakened. In this climate, the Euro has been relatively neutral … Continued
May has been dominated by a broad shift across global financial assets to a “risk off” phase, with the major global stock markets and equity averages lower, Bond markets rallying to lower yields, Gold higher. This environment has also seen safe haven currencies strengthening (the Japanese Yen), whilst “risk currencies’, like the Australian and New … Continued
Over the past two weeks and again earlier this week here we have been spotlighting the negative technical analysis picture for global stock markets, focusing on the major European and US equity averages. This negative outlook has been driven by the escalation of Trade War tensions between the US and China, with new tariffs being … Continued
For the Pound, the lack of progress on any Brexit agreement between the governing Conservative party and the opposition Labour party since the Brexit leave date was extended until 31st October 2019, has been disappointing for Forex participants. This has seen Sterling weaken over the past week, erasing prior May gains, which were driven by … Continued
From the start of May and the Trump threat for higher tariffs on Chinese goods we have been highlighting intermediate-term topping threat for the major European and US equity averages, as highlighted here. As we highlighted in yesterday’s report, further tweets over the weekend from Trump “have again fuelled the fire of market unease”, whilst … Continued
Over the past week in numerous articles we have highlighted the impact of growing trade negotiation tensions on equity markets here and Forex markets here, but today we will take a look at the negative impact on Base Metals. Friday saw some respite from the negativity with some positive soundings after the most recent talks, … Continued
This week we have highlighted the overall “risk off” setting for global stock markets here and here and the imposition of a tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods on Friday leaves this negative outlook very much intact. Again, here we spotlight the US benchmark average, the S&P 500. S&P 500 E-Mini downside threat … Continued
In our reports here and here this week we have highlighted a shift to a “risk off” environment across global financial markets, starting on Monday after President Trump’s tweets regarding US tariffs on Chinese goods to be imposed this Friday. Fears continue to grow that this will have a significantly negative impact on the current … Continued
In a report on Monday we highlighted a more negative tone and threat for the US yardstick index, the S&P 500, but also for global equity markets and averages. This was in the wake of President Trump’s comments on Sunday 5th May, concerning further tariffs on Chinese goods, but also negative moves after the Wednesday … Continued
An extremely erratic tone for global equities and to a lesser extent for the US Dollar since early May, shifting back and forth from “risk off” to “risk on” phases through the Fed, US Employment report and developments since the weekend on US-Sino trade negotiations and tariffs. This has left the US$ indecisive in the … Continued
Despite solid rebounds for US and global equity averages on Friday 3rd May after the US Employment report, comments on Sunday 5th May from President Trump, regarding further tariffs on Chinese goods, have sent equity markets south today. This negative price action has reinforced negative price signals after the FOMC statement on Wednesday 1st May … Continued
The US Dollar has been the strong global currency against most major currencies since March of this year, despite a corrective setback at the end of April US Dollar strength has broadly resumed this week in the wake of a less dovish tone, so de facto more hawkish tone, from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after … Continued
A rally and then a plunge back lower on Wednesday for the major US equity averages, after the FOMC rate decision, statement and conference. The tone from Fed Chairman Powell was that a rate cut in the near term is unlikely, which impacted negatively on US stock indices This has eased very short-term upside risks … Continued
Mixed Canadian economic data on Wednesday alongside an upbeat outlook for H2 2019 from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz were taken as positives for the Canadian Dollar. Furthermore, this week has seen a broad, corrective weakening for the US Dollar against most major currencies, possibly driven by month-end moves but also easing concerns of a … Continued
In articles here and here last week we highlighted the resurgence of the 2019 “risk on” phase for equities into late April with a bullish break from the S&P 500, the US benchmark average. Furthermore, European equity indices have also continued to extend their strong April bull run, with prospects for further gains into May. … Continued
The current “risk on” phase that continues to be displayed by the major European and US equity indices has been accompanied by a strong US Dollar. The US currency has been steadily advancing through the second half of April and more erratically since March against many major global currencies, which has been at least partially … Continued
As we highlighted in yesterdays’ report here the present “risk on” stage seen in the equity markets has also seen a strong US Dollar, with the US currency rallying across global major currencies (except the Japanese Yen). This reflects strong US economic data, despite the continuing worries about a faltering global recovery. We underlined this … Continued
A resilient consolidation tone for the major European equity averages over the past 24 hours, digesting solid gains to new 2019 cycle highs earlier this week, whilst the US benchmark average, the S&P 500, has stayed solid after soaring close to the record high from 2018. The current “risk on” phase for equities has been … Continued
Partially a reflection of US Dollar strength, but GBPUSD has broken below a key level at 1.2947, sending a negative, intermediate-term signal from a technical analysis perspective (see below for details). Furthermore, this has occurred as the UK Parliament resumes after an Easter recess, with pressures continuing to mount on Prime Minister Theresa May. Potential … Continued
The major European equity markets went into the Easter holiday season positing new cycle and 2019 highs. This price action reinforces both short- and intermediate-term bull trends, as markets enter a very busy week for earning reports. With the second quarter earnings season thus far proving broadly positive for global companies and therefore the wider … Continued
The Euro has managed a decent rebound effort from early April, having been setting up last week to try to make a more bearish signal into the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve Meeting last week (see our report here). The EUR USD currency pair recovery through resistance levels has partly reflected a renewal … Continued
A solid advance by the major European (and in fact global) equity markets over the past 24 hours, building on the renewal of risk appetite over the past week as global equity markets have entered earnings season. Moreover, this more recent positive tone has built on the intermediate-term bullish trends from late 2018 through Q1 … Continued
The UK government and EU agreed a flexible extension (flextension) to the Brexit negotiation process last week, which avoided a “no deal” Brexit, which would normally be expected to be positive for the Pound. However, Sterling has been paralysed with muted directional progress versus the UD Dollar or Euro since the extension was agreed. This … Continued
Continuing positive US economic data into April, was assisted on Friday as the US earnings season kicked off in earnest, with the financial sector starting off with strong Q1 reports from J P Morgan and Wells Fargo. This has reinforced an already “risk on” environment and encouraged the major US equity averages to the upside, … Continued
Last Friday (5th April) ahead of the US Employment report, we highlighted an upside risk for the USDJPY currency pair above a key level at 112.14 in our report. The subsequent setback avoided a more bullish shift, but recovery activity for the USDJPY Forex rate over the past 24 hours has highlighted this bull threat … Continued
Setbacks early this week for the major, global equity indices have reflected both bullish fatigue heading into earnings season, alongside concerns regarding trade tensions between the US and Europe (despite the positive soundings from US-Sino trade talks). Wednesday brought a slew of economic events, including UK GDP, US CPI, the ECB decision and FOMC Meeting … Continued
The Euro remains somewhat vulnerable sustaining losses versus many major currencies through March, most notably the US Dollar, but including the Canadian and Australian Dollars and to a lesser extent the Pound. This has primary reflected a still very dovish European Central Bank (ECB), and a deterioration in European economic data, mostly in Germany in … Continued
The major global equity averages have taken a breath to start this week, after an extremely strong first quarter of gains and a firm start to April last week. European and UK equity indices have seen slight dips lower since last Friday, partially due to rebounds in the Euro and Pound, which have weighed on … Continued
The Pound has been under negative pressures again in early April, with little progress made politically on the Brexit negotiations within the UK since the 29th March deadline was extended. Another new deadline looms this week, Friday April 10th, with strong rhetoric from within the EU seeing risks of a “no deal” Brexit increase again, … Continued
Still further gains to yet further highs for 2019 by global equity markets over the past 24 hours with anticipation of a positive outcome from the US-Sino trade negotiations. The overall “risk on” tone across global capital markets has also impacted Forex markets, with the Australian Dollar rebounding firmly this week, whilst the Japanese Yen, … Continued
Global equity markets remain extremely strong with global economic data continuing to improve, particularly from China in early April. Furthermore, positive sounding ion the US-Sino trade negotiations have helped share markets higher to start the second quarter. This has built on the extremely strong start to the year, with the first quarter yielding extremely strong … Continued
On Monday we looked at the re-energizing bull themes for the S&P 500 and the German flagship index, the DAX. This bullish tone has been reinforced by subsequent firm trading activity after Monday’s bull gaps to the upside, but more significantly overnight by positive geopolitical developments. The Financial Times reported that top US and Chinese … Continued
Last Monday 25th March we highlighted Euro vulnerability here previously driven lower by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data. This weakness has continued in late March with dovish comments from European Central Bank members and the ongoing weakening of economic data across the Eurozone. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength through latter … Continued
Last week we reported risks of a deeper correction to US and global equity markets. Subsequent strong advances across Asian, European and US stock markets and averages have rejected a more negative theme and seen risks flip back to the upside into early April. This morning has seen strong gains driven by optimism from Chinese … Continued
Here we present the Hawk / Dove sheet, an explanation of the terminology as well as the implications on forex trading and how it is used in fundamental analysis. Hawkish and Dovish Hawkish A Hawk is a term originally used in economics to describe economists or Central Bankers who are more concerned with potential recession … Continued
A credit rating is the assessment of the credit risk of a potential borrower or debtor. Primarily this focuses on the capacity to make repayment of the debt, and therefore implicitly a prediction of the probability or possibility of the debtor not repaying (or defaulting). Sovereign Debt Ratings are a form of credit rating, but … Continued
In our report here on Wednesday 27th March we highlighted a resilient tone for GBPUSD ahead of the indicative Brexit votes that evening. As we arrive today at 29th March, the previous Brexit deadline date, we stand ready for ANOTHER, third vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Although this deal received a boost … Continued