Today, Friday 2nd November sees the release of the US Employment report for October. The headline Non-Farm Payroll number is expected to come in around 190,000, but probably of greater importance will be the Average Hourly Earnings data, with 3.1% expected. USDJPY is often a significant market mover through the Employment report, here we look … Continued
Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in-Chief for FXExplained.co.uk, the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, plus Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital.
At FXExplained.co.uk Steve is the Editor-in-Chief, alongside producing numerous articles for the site. The ability to be able to reach out to a wide, global audience with his own analysis and also assist and nurture other authors in their creative process makes this a role that Steve values deeply.
Here are Steve’s tips on what pages to follow closely on FxExplained: Current market analysis and Best trading app in UK.
The Market Chartist
The Market Chartist was founded in 2012 and provides daily technical analysis reports, with written commentary and key support/ resistance levels to an institutional, professional and retail client base. The 30+ daily reports include European, UK and US Bonds & Equity Index Futures, G10 currencies, UK Natural Gas, TTF Gas, German Power, EUA Emissions and LME Base Metals.
As The Market Chartist, Steve has won many awards from the Technical Analyst Magazine. He was the 2016 & 2013 Winner (plus 2014 Runner Up) for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy and winner of Best FX Research & Strategy in 2012. He was also a finalist in the Technical Analyst of the Year category each year for 2012-2017.
Other Current Positions
Steve is also the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, a role he really enjoys. He appreciates the opportunity to be able to educate a diverse array of students in all aspects of the financial market’s world. Steve says “to be able to be a part of transforming an individual’s life through education is truly a privilege and very exciting”.
In his role as Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital, Steve supports and advises the investment management team by employing his extensive fundamental market experience, alongside his wealth of technical analysis knowledge. This allows him to add significant value to investment decisions.
Steve also writes extensively for numerous financial markets sites including: FxStreet.com, TechnicalAnalyst.co.uk, InsideFutures.com, BarChart.com, StockTwits.com, StockBrokers.com, AskTraders.com and Investing.com.
Previous to this, Steve was also a Senior Lecturer at The London Academy of Trading where he fully began his journey into the world of education. It was here that he honed his skills as a lecture and mentor in the world of financial markets education.
Vast Technical Analysis Experience
Steve has also helped technical analysis push into a new era in his previous role as Director at Vega Insight. Vega Insight is a relatively new company with a specific focus on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in global commodity and broader financial markets, with special focus on Energy. In his role Steve was responsible for the technical analysis inputs to the Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.
Steve spent 2009-2012 as a Director in the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse. Steve managed the FX division, responsible for the reports, forecasts and bank wide research for G10 & Emerging Markets currencies. In this role he also covered all major asset classes including Equity Indices, Rates & Credit, plus Commodities.
Steve spent most of his career at Merrill Lynch for 15 years from 1994-2009. The last ten years was as a Vice President in the research department as a technical analyst, responsible for daily reports, client presentations, plus in-house and client education programs. Prior to this, Steve was in the Fixed Income derivatives sales team where he managed the Italian Futures desk (BTP and EuroLira) on LIFFE (the London International Financial Futures Exchange). He was responsible for a four-man sales team, who consistently produced high volume of sales from both in-house and external clients.
He is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Master’s degree in politics, Philosophy & Economics from Oxford University (Lincoln College).
A firm rebound by the UK benchmark equity index, the FTSE 100, this week. This has been driven by an easing of global tensions and some positive technical developments, of note the push above the 7088 level by the futures contract. This has produced a small bottoming pattern, shifting the bias higher into November. Even … Continued
The US Dollar still stays very strong against most major currencies into month-end, particularly versus the GB Pound, Euro and Japanese Yen. This has reflected both a safe haven quality within the wider “risk off” phase, plus from the anticipation of a more hawkish Fed. Furthermore, the wider European Community and European currencies continue to … Continued
The US Dollar remains strong against most major currencies into late October, primarily driven by a flight to quality status, given the broader “risk off” scenario we are seeing across global asset classes. Global Bond markets are rallying as equities continue to selloff, with stock markets particularly damaged in the US and Asia, and this … Continued
For a second successive session on Friday, European and US equity markets attempted rebound and recovery rallies. However, once again, markets have been unable to send any notably positive technical signals, with bounces seen as corrective at best, advances remaining lacklustre in nature and leaving global equities vulnerable to renewed bearish forces through month-end and … Continued
Global equity markets attempted a correction rally on Thursday, driven by a strong rebound in tech stocks, BUT the S&P 500 reversed the session’s solid recovery gains in after-hours trading, driven by a negative response to Amazon and Google earnings. Further Asian market weakness overnight leaves global equities very vulnerable to further losses Friday, to … Continued
In yesterday’s report we highlighted intermediate-term bear trends for the major, global equity averages from renewed bearish pressures into latter October, but also the potential for rebounds, hinted at on Tuesday. The plunges lower that we saw late in the European and US sessions on Wednesday have further reinforced the intermediate-term bear trends, rejecting short-term … Continued
Global equity averages sold off heavily on Tuesday, with many of the major averages in Asia, Europe and the US pushing below the bear selloff lows posted in early October. Although this activity has reinforced the intermediate-term bear trends on one hand, the intraday rebounds actually set markets up for further recoveries into Thursday and … Continued
A lack of progress on Brexit negations from last week’s EU Summit was far from a surprise for FX markets, but the GB Pound still reacted negatively with the absence of any development. Furthermore, despite some positive sounding from both sides of the negotiating table already this week (from Barnier and PM May), the backdrop … Continued
The US Dollar has shown strength from mid-October against the Euro, partially due to a more hawkish tone from the FOMC, but also given Italian budget concerns. Despite a rebound on Friday by EURUSD, the risk remains skewed to the downside, within the broader, range environment, we define as 1.1815 to 1.1300. The threat into … Continued
Major European and US equity averages suffered notable losses on Thursday, but have managed to hold above the bear move lows posted earlier in October, after the aggressive liquidation activity. The FTSE 100 also lost ground, but the damage was less impactful than elsewhere, given the weakness in the GB Pound, cushioning downside activity. This … Continued
Again, and as expected, the EU Summit on Brexit stalled again on Wednesday, with no real progress made. Soundings from within the EU, appear to point to preparations for a “No deal” Brexit This is still seen as a negative outcome for Sterling and GBPUSD risks are currently skewed towards the downside. GBPUSD Risks … Continued
Today, Wednesday 17th October, sees the release of the Minutes from the September FOMC Meeting, at which interest rates were again raised. Since this meeting, global equity markets, driven by US equity averages, have experienced significant, negative price action, with liquidation pressures coming from a more hawkish tone from Jerome Powell. Financial markets traders, investors … Continued
As global equity markets have stabilised from the end of last week after their recent aggressive selloffs, the focus returns to the data, with the spotlight today on the UK Employment report. Key to watch for Tuesday will be the Average Earnings data, for signs of a labour market that is continuing to tighten and … Continued
A slight stabilising of global equity markets on Friday, led by Asia and reinforced through the European and US sessions has indicated a potential for very near-term bases and a very short-term conclusion to the recent bear moves. This has eased the aggressive risk off scenario that has plagued markets over the past week. The … Continued
Early session consolidation for the global equity markets on Thursday gave way late in the US session with a plunge lower. Again, this produced sizeable losses for the major European and US equity averages. For the S&P 500, the close below the 200-day Moving Average was a significant negative technical development. Risks for global equity … Continued
An extremely aggressive selloff across global equity markets on Wednesday was driven by severe weakness in US equities. Significant losses for the major US equity benchmark averages has seen critical intermediate-term term support levels from this year violated. For the S&P 500, the breakdown below 2853.5 was enough to trigger an intermediate-term bear trend into … Continued
The key macroeconomic focus in Europe today is the UK GDP and Manufacturing data, with potential for impact of Brexit concerns. Consensus sees GDP falling to 0.1% from 0.3% last month, with the expectation for manufacturing data modestly positive. This data is likely to impact on both the UK benchmark equity average, the FTSE 100 … Continued
An acceleration to higher yields across the US Treasury was seen last week, which has been sustained into this week, evident since the more hawkish tone indicated by Fed Chairmen Powell. This has rattled global equity market and seen significant selloffs across major global indices. Of note, the US benchmark average, the S&P 500 has … Continued
The release of the September Employment report from the US on Friday (5th October) produced a continuation of a general “risk off” scenario across global asset classes as seen in the early part of October. This has been partially triggered by a higher yield move across the US Treasury curve, in tune from a perception … Continued
Today, Friday 5th October sees the release of the September Employment report from the US. Given the recent, early October surge to higher yield across the US Treasury after a slightly more hawkish tone from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Employment report will be much watch as usual, with particular focus on the inflationary pressures … Continued
A plunge in prices across US Treasuries over the past 24 hours to reinforce higher yield moves across the UST yield curve seen since September, in reaction to a more hawkish tone from Jerome Powell. This points to still higher yields in the short-term. Furthermore, this price action has put some negative pressure on US … Continued
Today, Wednesday 3rd October sees UK Prime Minister Theresa May deliver her keynote speech to the Conservative Party Conference. This is of particulate note this year given the fragile position of Brexit negotiations and also Mrs May’s unsteady position as Tory Party leader and therefore Prime Minister. Over the past 1-2 weeks, Sterling has been … Continued
NAFTA talks ended with a positive outcome, highlighting a less negative tone to the global trade war backdrop. We see this having a positive impact on riskier assets and a negative impact on safe havens, with a further shift towards a “risk on” environment. USDJPY has continued to march higher, with the safe haven Japanese … Continued
NAFTA talks have finally resolved positively over the weekend. This has reinforced the global shift already being seen across asset classes towards a “risk on” environment, easing global trade war fears. This has been particularly positive for the Canadian Dollar, with the USDCD FX rate plunging lower, to re-energise both the short- and intermediate-term bearish … Continued
An erratic tone has been seen for GBPUSD since last week’s plunge in light of negative developments with regard to Brexit negotiations. More recently, however, in the wake of the US FOMC Meeting on Wednesday, the US Dollar has found some strength across major G10 currencies, which has pushed GBPUSD back lower. Going into today’s … Continued
As expected and as priced in, a rate hike from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday 26th September, as highlighted in our last report. Although the rate hike was expected, the FOMC Statement and Press Conference somewhat revealed a slightly more positive outlook for the economy than had been discounted in and … Continued
Today, Wednesday 26th September will see the financial markets focus firmly on the Fed and the FOMC Meeting, which is expected from market pricing to deliver another interest rate increase. Critical to focus on will be the statement and the press conference. Is the labour market too tight, is the flattening on the US Treasury … Continued
The FTSE 100 leapt higher Friday helped by a weakening GB Pound in the midst of renewed concerns regarding a more likely No Deal Brexit and with the current Conservative Government under Prime Minister Theresa May looking more fragile. GBPUSD was technically weakened by Friday’s selloff, leaving risks still lower for late September (and beyond). … Continued
A growing “risk on” phase from early September in the face of ongoing US-China Trade War developments has been recently reinforced by the recent recovery in Base Metals. A firm advance in the Copper price since mid-September has more recently signalled a technical bottoming pattern and points to higher price action through latter September and … Continued
An easing of fears and an apparent growing apathy from trader and investors regarding the US-Sino Trade War has seen global asset classes switch back to more of a “risk on” environment over the past 1-2 weeks. In particular, equity markets have stopped falling in Asia, started to rebound in Europe and resumed bull themes … Continued
A more positive “risk on” theme in early September has seen both a modest weakening of the US Dollar, alongside a more resilient tone for the Euro, which has pushed EURUSD back to the upper end of a multi-week, broader range environment. From a technical perspective, this leaves risks for an intermediate-term bullish shift for … Continued
The further easing of trade war fears with a glimmer of an improvement in US-Sino relations has caused global asset classes to move into a “risk on” theme, as global equity markets have been seen rebounding into mid-September alongside a broadly weaker US Dollar. This has allowed for a rebound effort by both AUDUSD and … Continued
Easing Trade War fears with a look to reopen talks between the US and China have slowly switched global markets back to a “risk on” environment this week. This has seen European and UK equity indices secure small bottoming patterns after recent losses and the US equity averages push back close to recent highs. This … Continued
Today, Thursday 13th September sees both the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB) hold their regular monetary policy meetings. From a technical perspective, both GBPUSD and EURUSD are caught within intermediate-term, broader range environment. Recent US Dollar corrective weakness amid global “risk on” moves have seen both GBPUSD and EURUSD push towards the … Continued
A rally and setback in the GB Pound this week have been a reaction to potential over optimism from the positive soundings from Michel Barnier and Brexit deal negotiators, sending GBP lower against many currencies over the past 24 hours. Furthermore, hopes of a breakthrough regarding dairy product access at the NAFTA talks has sets … Continued
Michel Barnier indicated on Monday 10th September that a Brexit deal could be possible in six to eight weeks by the end of November. This was taken positively by Forex markets with the GBPUSD currency rate jumping higher and through an important technical chart barrier at 1/3043. Although the FTSE 100 share index, the UK … Continued
The US Employment report for August was released on Friday 7th September with the Non-Farm Payroll and Average Hour Earnings data beating expectations. These data points highlighted a still strong US labour market and economic recovery, despite the back drop of the ongoing Trade War developments. Furthermore, markets have been alerted to a potentially more … Continued
Today, Friday 7th September sees the publication of the US Employment report for August. This much watched data event will be under particular scrutiny, to look for signs of any potentially negative (or possibly positive) impacts from the US-Sino trade war that has been developing in 2018. Here we take a deeper look into both … Continued
A NZDUSD better recovery tone through the middle of this week has eased some of the bearish pressures from the late August/ early September plunge to a new cycle low. This is in the face of a generally “risk off” environment across currency markets and global asset classes. This sets risks higher for today into … Continued
Still no trade deal agreement between the USA and Canada in relation to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), which continues to encourage Canadian Dollar weakness. Furthermore, the US Dollar continues to strengthen with Forex markets in a “risk off” mode. Today’s Bank of Canada Meeting could be key for a potentially intermediate-term technical shift … Continued
Growing concerns about the progress of Brexit negotiations saw EURGBP post its biggest one day fall in over three months on Monday. Over the weekend Michel Barnier appeared to reverse comments made last week, taking a negative position on Britain’s latest Brexit proposal. Whilst Prime Minister Theresa May has again faced strong opposition to her … Continued
The month of August concluded on Friday with no trade deal agreed between the USA and Canada in respect to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), after positive developments previously in latter August between the US and Mexico. The failure to reach agreement through a tentative deadline, alongside some would say antagonistic remarks from … Continued
Data is due on Friday 31st August for European Unemployment and the Consumer Price Index. These data points could have a significant impact on the path of the Euro in the FX markets (in this case focusing on the EURUSD currency rate). We would look for the August recovery rally by the EURISD forex rate … Continued
The GB Pound surged against both the US Dollar and the Euro on Wednesday 29th August in the wake of positive comments by EUR negotiator Barnier, highlighting prospects for a Brexit deal. The GBPUSD push above 1.3000 has decidedly eased intermediate-term bearish forces and leaves risks for a still more positive development above a key … Continued
Today, Wednesday 29th August we get the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also the Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices data. The latter of particularly significance as it is seen as a preferred measure for inflation pressures by the US Federal Reserve and FOMC. With the S&P 500 recently making a new record high above the … Continued
The US dollar has broadly extended strength from October into November, continuing to react positively to US economic data and to the expectation of tax reform USDJPY continues to target the key resistance level at 114.50, above which would allow another significant leg higher. USDCAD is currently seeing a small corrective dip, however, the reversal … Continued
US$ strength contuse to be a dominant Forex market theme, with the US currency benefiting from solid economic data (most recently the better than expected GDP data on Friday 27th October), plus a perception of a potentially more hawkish Fed. Less than impressive Australian data (CPI more recently) alongside the USD strength, has encouraged the … Continued
Today we introduce a new weekly feature to FXExplained.co.uk, our Weekly Global Recap and Look Ahead. To ensure that you do not miss out on this overview, or any other of our articles, please sign up to our mailing list here. Global overview Mid-October has seen global stock markets probe higher, as the overall “risk … Continued
The US dollar has seen a more weakened tone resume in early September. Furthermore, Euro strength against many currencies has allowed for a EURUSD surge through the psychological/option level at 1.2000, leaving September risk higher. The GBPUSD rebound has rejected a more negative tone with threat for a more bullish intermediate term outlook resuming, but … Continued