Growing concerns about the progress of Brexit negotiations saw EURGBP post its biggest one day fall in over three months on Monday. Over the weekend Michel Barnier appeared to reverse comments made last week, taking a negative position on Britain’s latest Brexit proposal. Whilst Prime Minister Theresa May has again faced strong opposition to her … Continued
Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.
The month of August concluded on Friday with no trade deal agreed between the USA and Canada in respect to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), after positive developments previously in latter August between the US and Mexico. The failure to reach agreement through a tentative deadline, alongside some would say antagonistic remarks from … Continued
Data is due on Friday 31st August for European Unemployment and the Consumer Price Index. These data points could have a significant impact on the path of the Euro in the FX markets (in this case focusing on the EURUSD currency rate). We would look for the August recovery rally by the EURISD forex rate … Continued
The GB Pound surged against both the US Dollar and the Euro on Wednesday 29th August in the wake of positive comments by EUR negotiator Barnier, highlighting prospects for a Brexit deal. The GBPUSD push above 1.3000 has decidedly eased intermediate-term bearish forces and leaves risks for a still more positive development above a key … Continued
Today, Wednesday 29th August we get the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also the Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices data. The latter of particularly significance as it is seen as a preferred measure for inflation pressures by the US Federal Reserve and FOMC. With the S&P 500 recently making a new record high above the … Continued
The US dollar has broadly extended strength from October into November, continuing to react positively to US economic data and to the expectation of tax reform USDJPY continues to target the key resistance level at 114.50, above which would allow another significant leg higher. USDCAD is currently seeing a small corrective dip, however, the reversal … Continued
US$ strength contuse to be a dominant Forex market theme, with the US currency benefiting from solid economic data (most recently the better than expected GDP data on Friday 27th October), plus a perception of a potentially more hawkish Fed. Less than impressive Australian data (CPI more recently) alongside the USD strength, has encouraged the … Continued
Today we introduce a new weekly feature to FXExplained.co.uk, our Weekly Global Recap and Look Ahead. To ensure that you do not miss out on this overview, or any other of our articles, please sign up to our mailing list here. Global overview Mid-October has seen global stock markets probe higher, as the overall “risk … Continued
The US dollar has seen a more weakened tone resume in early September. Furthermore, Euro strength against many currencies has allowed for a EURUSD surge through the psychological/option level at 1.2000, leaving September risk higher. The GBPUSD rebound has rejected a more negative tone with threat for a more bullish intermediate term outlook resuming, but … Continued
With geological receding slightly in later August USDJPY has pushed higher, with the Japanese Yen setting back versus many currencies. However, Gold has continued to push higher, outperforming the Yen in 2017 as a safe haven asset. We anticipate a far more stronger Gold price as geopolitical tensions look set to resume in September. See … Continued
The US Dollar has been erratic in late August, trying to reject underlying weakness in spite of continuing geopolitical pressures. Although EURUSD is correcting in the very short-term, the recent break above psychological/option resistance at 1.2000 has reinforced the intermediate-term bullish theme. GBPUSD corrective activity from early August neutralised the intermediate term bullish theme, but … Continued
A strong push higher into late July for GBPUSD (Cable), overcoming the previous bull cycle high at 1.3126. This has rejected recent corrective consolidation activity, maintaining and reinforcing the intermediate term bullish view into August. GBPUSD – Upside threat As anticipated push higher on Friday, rejecting the Thursday correction lower after the rebound from above … Continued
The US Dollar extends weakness versus most G10 currencies through mid-July. In particular, EURUSD has continued to surge in anticipation of a more hawkish ECB. GBPUSD has gone into a corrective consolidation mode, but the threat remains to the upside into August. EURUSD – Bullish trend reinforced Another probe to the upside on Friday to … Continued
Modest US Dollar corrective gains in early July have seen both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars lose ground to the US currency. For AUDUSD, risk is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to a neutral outlook, but only confirmed below .7532. For NZDUSD, the intermediate term bullish outlook remains more secure, only shifting to … Continued
A solid recovery effort by the Brent Crude and WTI oil futures contracts in late June has eased the intermediate term bearish outlook for the oil price. In turn, this has assisted with further Canadian Dollar currency strength, pushing USADCAD lower. Furthermore, further hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada point to potential interest rate … Continued
Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD FX rates retain intermediate-term bullish outlooks from positive signals produced previously in Q2 2017 However, recent indecisive activity has shifted the risk for the bullish seems to be neutralised, but still requiring confirmation with negative signals to the downside. For EURUSD, this would require push below 1.1107; for GBPUSD below … Continued
Both the AUD and NZD have posted bullish technical signals versus the USD in the first half of June, shifting the intermediate-term outlooks for AUDUSD and NZDUSD to the upside. For AUDUSD, the break above .7611 was the trigger leaving the threat into the second half of June towards the .7835/49/78 resistance area. With respect … Continued
A negative reaction to the General Election result in the UK at the end of last week for GBPUSD and although the intermediate-term outlook remains bullish, the very near term risk is to the downside for a correction. However, for the FTSE 100 index initial weakness was rejected with a strong rebound, likely driven by … Continued
Oil has been bearish since the plunge lower after the resolution of 25th May OPEC Meeting, with further losses seen late last week leaving the bias into early June. However, the Oil price weakness has not translated into significant Canadian Dollar weakness into early June. Furthermore, US Dollar losses after the Friday 2nd June US … Continued
Further consolidation Monday, however we see a negative tone after the push last week down through 111.43 support, keeping a downside bias for Tuesday. Furthermore, growing risk is for a break down through the bull gap at 109.57-45, which would see an intermediate-term shift back to bearish. For Today: l We see a downside bias … Continued