Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

NZDUSD and AUDUSD Stay Bearish

Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD retain a negative tone into the middle of May and beyond, having sent bearish signals in April. For NZDUSD, the break of .6867 indicated a more bearish intermediate-term theme and leads the threat lower the targets may be as deep as .667664 into the second half of May. For AUDUSD the … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY Positive and USDCAD Bullish Themes

Both USDJPY and USDCAD have gone through a modest consolidation and correction phase into the beginning of May, however the underlying positive themes evident from mid-April remain very much intact. For USDJPY, the previous push above 112.20 has switched from an intermediate-term bearish theme to a broader range environment, but with a positive bias. For … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD Bearish, Despite Corrective Bounces

A corrective rebound tone for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD in late April and already in early May, which we look to continue early this week. However, bearish intermediate-term developments in April lead the bigger picture risk for May for potentially more significant negative price action. For AUDUSD, the April push below .7487 signalled an intermediate-term … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD Back to Neutral; GBPUSD Cautious

US Dollar gains in early April have damaged upside opportunities for both EURUSD and GBPUSD.   For EURUSD, the pushback below 1.0598 has neutralised the intermediate-term bullish theme, shifting the intermediate term outlook back to neutral.   GBPUSD remains within aa broader, non-trend, range environment, with reduced risk for a bullish shift, only signalled above … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD Negative Bias; USDJPY Bearish, but Upside Correction Risks

USDCAD remains within a broader non-trend environment, but late March losses through support have shifted the risk for a more negative consolidation seem into early April. For USDJPY, a push below key supports at 111.58 and critically 111.32 in late March shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish. But, a rebound into the end of the … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD & NZDUSD Range Themes – Forex Market Analysis

Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have reinforced broader environments that have been evident since Q4 with recovery activity from 2016, with recovery activity from the first half of March stalling over the past week. For AUDUSD, for now this has ease the threat of a more bullish shift above .7778 for a near-term negative bias, although … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD mixed post-FOMC; GBPUSD points higher

On Wednesday, March 15 the Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated rate hike, however, the underlying tone was viewed by global market as less hawkish than anticipated. A more hawkish tone was expected, given comments from various FOMC members since late February. The US Dollar gains from late February against many of the major global currencies, … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD and USDJPY Threaten Bullish Shifts

Heightening anticipation of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-March, given more hawkish statements from various Fed Committee Members since late February, has pushed US Treasuries to higher yield territory and in turn strengthened the US currency. For USDCAD, the early March push above 1.3387 neutralise intermediate-turn bearish pressures. Moreover, the … Continued

Intermediate

NZDUSD Stays Negative; AUDUSD Bull Threat Diminishing

A resurgence of US dollar strength in early March driven by slightly more hawkish comments from numerous FOMC members has caused a setback for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD the over the past week. For NZDUSD, this has created a further short-term topping pattern and shifts the risk for a more negative tone into mid-March within … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD Bearish Shift, but GBPUSD Remains Resilient

The break lower for EURUSD over the past week has shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, down through 1.0577. This switches the threat for late February and into March for a move to test the cycle low at 1.0339. However, the GB Pound has proved the technically more resilient of these two European currencies against … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD Bull Risks, but NZDUSD Bias Shifts Back Lower

Strong consolidation by AUDUSD for early February has reinforced the bullish tone thus far in 2017, as previous highlighted here. However, a significant sell off for NZDUSD in the last week after the RBNZ meeting and statement, has rejected the previous upside threat and shifts risks lower into mid-February. A more bullish theme for AUDUSD … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD and EURUSD February Upside Threats

A positive consolidation tone has emerged for the GBPUSD and EURUSD FX rates since the start of 2017. This has seen late 2016 US$ bull trends neutralised in January. Moreover, not only have intermediate-term bearish risks for GBPUSD and EURUSD been rejected, but the disproportionate risk into February is for bullish trends to emerge. A … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD and USDJPY in ranges, but risk into February for bear shifts

An erratic consolidation theme has emerged into late January for both the USDCAD and USDJPY spot FX rates. The US$ bull trend that dominated in November-December 2016 was neutralized with losses for the greenback in January. Although this has set intermediate-term range environments for both USDCAD and USDJPY, the threat into early February is still … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD Aim Higher

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have boasted strong recovery efforts in 2017 versus the US Dollar, primarily a reaction to corrective weakness by the US currency. For AUDUSD, this has seen a push above the December peak at .7525, which is neutralised intermediate-term bearish pressures, shifting to a broader range environment, but with a … Continued

Intermediate

Oil Rebound and USDCAD Downside Risks

Despite the oil setback in early 2017, a rebound effort last week leaves a positive tone within a now intermediate-term range environment. However, the underlying theme remains for higher oil prices. Furthermore, the rebound in the oil price has allowed for a strengthening of the Canadian Dollar, which alongside the recent negative correction for the … Continued

NZDUSD and AUDUSD Stay Bearish for January

The New Zealand and Australian Dollars have both seen notable corrective rebounds to the upside versus the US Dollar in early 2017. However, the significant bearish sell offs for NZDUSD and AUDUSD in November and December 2016, leaves bearish risks intact into this week (mid-January) and also for the month. Furthermore, the setback seen on … Continued

US$ Soars within G3 (against Euro and Japanese Yen)

The US Dollar Has Continued to strengthen across most of the major global currencies since the FOMC rate hike decision on Wednesday (15th December). Although this rate hike was anticipated, a more hawkish stance into 2017 has allowed for further gains for the US currency. This leaves the near term forex forecast for further US … Continued

Intermediate

NZDUSD and AUDUSD Look To Re-Energise Bear Themes

Both the New Zealand and Australian Dollars have produced modest recovery effort from late November into early December against the US Dollar, but late last week these rebounds versus the US currency have started to fade. This leaves the technical analysis FX forecasts still very negative for NZDUSD and AUDUSD on intermediate-term outlooks. We anticipate … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD Stays Strong against the US Dollar

The GB Pound has retained an extremely positive tone versus the US currency since the US Presidential election result, one of the few global currencies to actually trade higher against the USD since the Trump victory. Moreover, the GBPUSD (Cable) push above 1.2674 in early December has created short/intermediate-term-term basing structure, which shifts the intermediate-term … Continued

Intermediate

The US Dollar Extremely Strong within G3 (USD, JPY, EUR)

The US dollar was already exhibiting a bullish technical analysis tone versus both the Euro and Japanese yen (the G3 currency complex) in early November. But a surge by the Dollar since the US Presidential election result across the major currencies has been particularly impressive within G3. This leaves the Forex market analysis for a … Continued