Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

Tariff and Trade Fears keep the Yen strong, USDJPY aims lower

In our reports here and here this week we have highlighted a shift to a “risk off” environment across global financial markets, starting on Monday after President Trump’s tweets regarding US tariffs on Chinese goods to be imposed this Friday. Fears continue to grow that this will have a significantly negative impact on the current … Continued

Intermediate

Global equities plunge again, for intermediate-term tops

In a report on Monday we highlighted a more negative tone and threat for the US yardstick index, the S&P 500, but also for global equity markets and averages. This was in the wake of President Trump’s comments on Sunday 5th May, concerning further tariffs on Chinese goods, but also negative moves after the Wednesday … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD – Pound stays firm on Brexit deal hopes

An extremely erratic tone for global equities and to a lesser extent for the US Dollar since early May, shifting back and forth from “risk off” to “risk on” phases through the Fed, US Employment report and developments since the weekend on US-Sino trade negotiations and tariffs. This has left the US$ indecisive in the … Continued

Intermediate

Global equities plunge on trade deal threat – S&P 500

Despite solid rebounds for US and global equity averages on Friday 3rd May after the US Employment report, comments on Sunday 5th May from President Trump, regarding further tariffs on Chinese goods, have sent equity markets south today. This negative price action has reinforced negative price signals after the FOMC statement on Wednesday 1st May … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY poised into US Employment report

The US Dollar has been the strong global currency against most major currencies since March of this year, despite a corrective setback at the end of April US Dollar strength has broadly resumed this week in the wake of a less dovish tone, so de facto more hawkish tone, from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after … Continued

Intermediate

US equity indices question the immediate bull trend

A rally and then a plunge back lower on Wednesday for the major US equity averages, after the FOMC rate decision, statement and conference. The tone from Fed Chairman Powell was that a rate cut in the near term is unlikely, which impacted negatively on US stock indices This has eased very short-term upside risks … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD weakness in intermediate-term bull trend

Mixed Canadian economic data on Wednesday alongside an upbeat outlook for H2 2019 from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz were taken as positives for the Canadian Dollar. Furthermore, this week has seen a broad, corrective weakening for the US Dollar against most major currencies, possibly driven by month-end moves but also easing concerns of a … Continued

Intermediate

US and European equites threaten “melt ups”

In articles here and here last week we highlighted the resurgence of the 2019 “risk on” phase for equities into late April with a bullish break from the S&P 500, the US benchmark average. Furthermore, European equity indices have also continued to extend their strong April bull run, with prospects for further gains into May. … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD and GBPUSD still point to further losses

The current “risk on” phase that continues to be displayed by the major European and US equity indices has been accompanied by a strong US Dollar. The US currency has been steadily advancing through the second half of April and more erratically since March against many major global currencies, which has been at least partially … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD vulnerable to further losses

As we highlighted in yesterdays’ report here the present “risk on” stage seen in the equity markets has also seen a strong US Dollar, with the US currency rallying across global major currencies (except the Japanese Yen). This reflects strong US economic data, despite the continuing worries about a faltering global recovery. We underlined this … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay bullish and US$ soars, sending EURUSD bear signal

A resilient consolidation tone for the major European equity averages over the past 24 hours, digesting solid gains to new 2019 cycle highs earlier this week, whilst the US benchmark average, the S&P 500, has stayed solid after soaring close to the record high from 2018.  The current “risk on” phase for equities has been … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD – Pound signals a more bearish tone

Partially a reflection of US Dollar strength, but GBPUSD has broken below a key level at 1.2947, sending a negative, intermediate-term signal from a technical analysis perspective (see below for details). Furthermore, this has occurred as the UK Parliament resumes after an Easter recess, with pressures continuing to mount on Prime Minister Theresa May. Potential … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets stay strong

The major European equity markets went into the Easter holiday season positing new cycle and 2019 highs. This price action reinforces both short- and intermediate-term bull trends, as markets enter a very busy week for earning reports. With the second quarter earnings season thus far proving broadly positive for global companies and therefore the wider … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD – Euro positive short-term

The Euro has managed a decent rebound effort from early April, having been setting up last week to try to make a more bearish signal into the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve Meeting last week (see our report here). The EUR USD currency pair recovery through resistance levels has partly reflected a renewal … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets head North

A solid advance by the major European (and in fact global) equity markets over the past 24 hours, building on the renewal of risk appetite over the past week as global equity markets have entered earnings season. Moreover, this more recent positive tone has built on the intermediate-term bullish trends from late 2018 through Q1 … Continued

Intermediate

Pound paralysed post-Brexit extension

The UK government and EU agreed a flexible extension (flextension) to the Brexit negotiation process last week, which avoided a “no deal” Brexit, which would normally be expected to be positive for the Pound. However, Sterling has been paralysed with muted directional progress versus the UD Dollar or Euro since the extension was agreed. This … Continued

Intermediate

Equities march higher into earning season

Continuing positive US economic data into April, was assisted on Friday as the US earnings season kicked off in earnest, with the financial sector starting off with strong Q1 reports from J P Morgan and Wells Fargo. This has reinforced an already “risk on” environment and encouraged the major US equity averages to the upside, … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY bull threat to key 112.14 resistance

Last Friday (5th April) ahead of the US Employment report, we highlighted an upside risk for the USDJPY currency pair above a key level at 112.14 in our report. The subsequent setback avoided a more bullish shift, but recovery activity for the USDJPY Forex rate over the past 24 hours has highlighted this bull threat … Continued

Intermediate

Equity averages rebound, aiming higher again

Setbacks early this week for the major, global equity indices have reflected both bullish fatigue heading into earnings season, alongside concerns regarding trade tensions between the US and Europe (despite the positive soundings from US-Sino trade talks). Wednesday brought a slew of economic events, including UK GDP, US CPI, the ECB decision and FOMC Meeting … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD remains vulnerable into ECB meeting and Fed Minutes

The Euro remains somewhat vulnerable sustaining losses versus many major currencies through March, most notably the US Dollar, but including the Canadian and Australian Dollars and to a lesser extent the Pound. This has primary reflected a still very dovish European Central Bank (ECB), and a deterioration in European economic data, mostly in Germany in … Continued

Intermediate

Global equity indices firm, but cautious

The major global equity averages have taken a breath to start this week, after an extremely strong first quarter of gains and a firm start to April last week. European and UK equity indices have seen slight dips lower since last Friday, partially due to rebounds in the Euro and Pound, which have weighed on … Continued

Intermediate

GBP/USD – The Pound erratic, but vulnerable into another key Brexit week

The Pound has been under negative pressures again in early April, with little progress made politically on the Brexit negotiations within the UK since the 29th March deadline was extended. Another new deadline looms this week, Friday April 10th, with strong rhetoric from within the EU seeing risks of a “no deal” Brexit increase again, … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY poised for a bull signal into US Employment report

Still further gains to yet further highs for 2019 by global equity markets over the past 24 hours with anticipation of a positive outcome from the US-Sino trade negotiations. The overall “risk on” tone across global capital markets has also impacted Forex markets, with the Australian Dollar rebounding firmly this week, whilst the Japanese Yen, … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 stays strong, with another new high for the year

Global equity markets remain extremely strong with global economic data continuing to improve, particularly from China in early April. Furthermore, positive sounding ion the US-Sino trade negotiations have helped share markets higher to start the second quarter. This has built on the extremely strong start to the year, with the first quarter yielding extremely strong … Continued

Intermediate

European and US index futures surge to new 2019 highs

On Monday we looked at the re-energizing bull themes for the S&P 500 and the German flagship index, the DAX. This bullish tone has been reinforced by subsequent firm trading activity after Monday’s bull gaps to the upside, but more significantly overnight by positive geopolitical developments. The Financial Times reported that top US and Chinese … Continued

Intermediate

EUR/USD – Euro stays weak

Last Monday 25th March we highlighted Euro vulnerability here previously driven lower by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data. This weakness has continued in late March with dovish comments from European Central Bank members and the ongoing weakening of economic data across the Eurozone. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength through latter … Continued

Intermediate

US and European equity averages pointing North again

Last week we reported risks of a deeper correction to US and global equity markets. Subsequent strong advances across Asian, European and US stock markets and averages have rejected a more negative theme and seen risks flip back to the upside into early April. This morning has seen strong gains driven by optimism from Chinese … Continued

Intermediate

Pound weakens ahead of another key Brexit vote

In our report here on  Wednesday 27th March we highlighted a resilient tone for GBPUSD ahead of the indicative Brexit votes that evening. As we arrive today at 29th March, the previous Brexit deadline date, we stand ready for ANOTHER, third vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Although this deal received a boost … Continued

Intermediate

US equity averages threaten deeper corrections

US equity averages have taken a lead on the downside this week, with the previously more vulnerable European equity indices having taken global markets lower in latter March, during the current correction phase. The European equity average selloff has more recently been driven by slowing economic data, of note being last Friday’s (22nd March) German … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays solid ahead of indicative Brexit votes

The UK parliament prepares for indicative votes later today (Wednesday 27th March, scheduled for the evening) as the 29th March initial Brexit deadline draws closer. Parliament has scheduled 16 (yes, sixteen) options to choose from, increasing very short-term uncertainty. Although the Pound remains hesitant in the short-term, the underlying tone remains solid versus both the … Continued

Intermediate

Yen stays strong in risk off scenario

Last Friday’s very weak German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data was another blow to the global economic backdrop, with concerns throughout this year of a global slowdown in China, through Asia Pacific and increasingly also in Europe. This has seen riskier asset classes come under negative forces over the past week into latter March, with … Continued

Intermediate

Euro vulnerability

A Euro plunge in the latter part of last week, on Friday driven by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength again on Thursday-Friday against many major currencies, after US$ weakness was seen immediately after a far more dovish Federal reserve at their meeting on Wednesday. This … Continued

Intermediate

US equities surge back higher

A surge back higher for the major US equity averages on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new 2019 peaks and five-month highs. This price action has rejected the more negative tone from Wednesday after the Fed indicated a far more dovish tone than anticipated. The main drive to the upside has … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar plunges as the Fed stays dovish

The US Dollar has been weakening across major global currencies over the past 1-2 weeks, mainly driven by two factors. A shift to a more “risk on” environment with global stocks rallying has seen the US$ decline, as it is not in as great a demand as a safe haven. Furthermore, and more notable over … Continued

Intermediate

US equities strong, but cautious ahead of the Fed Meeting

A surge higher again Tuesday by US and global equity averages, in most cases positing new cycle and 2019 highs. This bullish behaviour has reinforced both short- and intermediate-term bullish themes that have dominated this year. The most recent up lift was triggered by the “No Deal” Brexit being taken off the table last week. … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets head still higher

A broad, global “risk on” scenario” has resurfaced over the past week through mid-March, rejecting the very early March selloff which was a reaction to heightened fears regarding a global economic slowdown. Although no significant positive developments have been made on the US-Sino trade negotiations in the period, the removal of a “No Deal” Brexit … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays firm after a week of key Brexit votes

An erratic tone for the British Pound last week with multiple Brexit votes somewhat clearing the path forward, with a No Deal Brexit rejected and the UK Government now seeking to extend the Article 50 exit date beyond 29th March. However, a likely third vote on Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal is likely this week … Continued

Intermediate

European averages join US indices with bullish extensions

In yesterday’s report here we highlighted that the main US equity indices have produced aggressive rallies back higher this week, with both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hitting new highs for 2019. This has been driven by solid US macroeconomic data and an easing of global growth concerns, as the UK has moved away … Continued

Intermediate

US averages lead global stock indices back higher

The major US equity averages have seen an aggressive surge back higher this week, with US macroeconomic data continuing to stay strong, plus global relief as we move away from a No Deal Brexit. Stock markets have shrugged off the earlier March selloffs last week, that wiped out notable supports and likely reflected short- and … Continued

Intermediate

Pound erratic through first Brexit vote, with second vote in focus

An erratic tone for Sterling through the first vote on Prime Minister May’s new Brexit deal, but holding onto a positive technical tone. Again, depending on the outcome today, we have further votes over the next two days on a “no deal” Brexit and to extend the Article 50 leaving date. Again, as in yesterday’s … Continued

Intermediate

Pound strengthens on Brexit deal hopes into first key vote

A very strong rally by the Pound on Monday, with rumours and soundings of some breakthrough in Brexit negotiations. Today sees the first vote on Prime Minister May’s likely new Brexit deal and depending on the outcome, potentially further votes over the next two days on a “no deal” Brexit and to extend the Article … Continued

Intermediate

Equities plunge after US Jobs report, but rebound sets risk higher

A fairly aggressive selloff for US (and also global) equity averages on Friday after a very weak US Employment report, reinforcing a very negative week for US stock markets and also global indices. However, a firm intraday rebound into the close on Friday has avoided a more bearish signal and from a technical analysis perspective, … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD plunge post-ECB

In their meeting on Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) slashed GDP and inflation forecasts and shifted to a still more dovish stance, with a new round of monetary stimulus for banks. This unsettled European (and global) equity markets, saw a rush into safe haven Bunds (German Government Bonds) and saw a plunge in the … Continued

Intermediate

US equity indices look vulnerable to another correction lower

Despite positive soundings from the US-Sino trade talks over the weekend, early US equity market strength at the very start of this week quickly faded with significant selloff on Monday. Subsequent consolidation activity has been unable to allow the major US equity averages to claim back significant upside territory, leaving markets exposed to further losses. … Continued

Intermediate

Further US Dollar gains sets up USDCAD for a bullish shift

The recent “risk off” move this week as we discussed in yesterday’s report here has seen the US Dollar rally against most major currencies with a flight to quality move in Forex markets, with the US currency seen as a safe haven, On a separate but connected basis, the Canadian Dollar has weakened recently with the … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar rebound sees correction bias for GBPUSD

Monday produced a selloff across global equity markets in a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” type move, after the announcement of solid progress in the US-Sino trade talks. This “risk off” move also encouraged a flight to safety move in Forex markets, with the US Dollar the main beneficiary as a safe haven. For … Continued

Intermediate

Equities march higher into March

Strong advances and closes on Friday to start off March for the major European equity markets, with many benchmark averages hitting new 2019 highs. Over the weekend, positive sounding once more from the US-China trade talks have seen global equity index futures markets already leap higher today (Monday 4th March), with the US equity benchmark … Continued

Intermediate

US equity indices poised for an upside break

In recent articles this week here we have highlighted the ongoing resilience of European equity markets, with both the DAX and DJ Euro STOXX 50 benchmark averages hitting new highs for 2019 over the past 24 hours (see below for the DJ Euro STOXX 50 European benchmark). The major US equity averages, however, have remained … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays strong

In our report earlier this week on the Pound we highlighted a fundamental strengthening of the UK currency amid rumours that UK Prime Minister Theresa May was going to discuss with the Cabinet a possible delay to the UK’s date for leaving the EU (currently 29th March 2019). Further developments have seen the likelihood of … Continued

Intermediate

European equity averages stay strong

An erratic session on Tuesday, with global equity markets rallying, dipping and rebounding already this week, but the underlying “risk on” theme remains intact. Equity markets have been bolstered by positive news from the weekend regarding developments in the US-Sino trade negotiations and more recently by the willingness for the UK Government to look to … Continued