Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

USDJPY poised into US Employment report

The US Dollar has been the strong global currency against most major currencies since March of this year, despite a corrective setback at the end of April US Dollar strength has broadly resumed this week in the wake of a less dovish tone, so de facto more hawkish tone, from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after … Continued

Intermediate

US equity indices question the immediate bull trend

A rally and then a plunge back lower on Wednesday for the major US equity averages, after the FOMC rate decision, statement and conference. The tone from Fed Chairman Powell was that a rate cut in the near term is unlikely, which impacted negatively on US stock indices This has eased very short-term upside risks … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD weakness in intermediate-term bull trend

Mixed Canadian economic data on Wednesday alongside an upbeat outlook for H2 2019 from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz were taken as positives for the Canadian Dollar. Furthermore, this week has seen a broad, corrective weakening for the US Dollar against most major currencies, possibly driven by month-end moves but also easing concerns of a … Continued

Intermediate

US and European equites threaten “melt ups”

In articles here and here last week we highlighted the resurgence of the 2019 “risk on” phase for equities into late April with a bullish break from the S&P 500, the US benchmark average. Furthermore, European equity indices have also continued to extend their strong April bull run, with prospects for further gains into May. … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD and GBPUSD still point to further losses

The current “risk on” phase that continues to be displayed by the major European and US equity indices has been accompanied by a strong US Dollar. The US currency has been steadily advancing through the second half of April and more erratically since March against many major global currencies, which has been at least partially … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD vulnerable to further losses

As we highlighted in yesterdays’ report here the present “risk on” stage seen in the equity markets has also seen a strong US Dollar, with the US currency rallying across global major currencies (except the Japanese Yen). This reflects strong US economic data, despite the continuing worries about a faltering global recovery. We underlined this … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay bullish and US$ soars, sending EURUSD bear signal

A resilient consolidation tone for the major European equity averages over the past 24 hours, digesting solid gains to new 2019 cycle highs earlier this week, whilst the US benchmark average, the S&P 500, has stayed solid after soaring close to the record high from 2018.  The current “risk on” phase for equities has been … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD – Pound signals a more bearish tone

Partially a reflection of US Dollar strength, but GBPUSD has broken below a key level at 1.2947, sending a negative, intermediate-term signal from a technical analysis perspective (see below for details). Furthermore, this has occurred as the UK Parliament resumes after an Easter recess, with pressures continuing to mount on Prime Minister Theresa May. Potential … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets stay strong

The major European equity markets went into the Easter holiday season positing new cycle and 2019 highs. This price action reinforces both short- and intermediate-term bull trends, as markets enter a very busy week for earning reports. With the second quarter earnings season thus far proving broadly positive for global companies and therefore the wider … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD – Euro positive short-term

The Euro has managed a decent rebound effort from early April, having been setting up last week to try to make a more bearish signal into the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve Meeting last week (see our report here). The EUR USD currency pair recovery through resistance levels has partly reflected a renewal … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets head North

A solid advance by the major European (and in fact global) equity markets over the past 24 hours, building on the renewal of risk appetite over the past week as global equity markets have entered earnings season. Moreover, this more recent positive tone has built on the intermediate-term bullish trends from late 2018 through Q1 … Continued

Intermediate

Pound paralysed post-Brexit extension

The UK government and EU agreed a flexible extension (flextension) to the Brexit negotiation process last week, which avoided a “no deal” Brexit, which would normally be expected to be positive for the Pound. However, Sterling has been paralysed with muted directional progress versus the UD Dollar or Euro since the extension was agreed. This … Continued

Intermediate

Equities march higher into earning season

Continuing positive US economic data into April, was assisted on Friday as the US earnings season kicked off in earnest, with the financial sector starting off with strong Q1 reports from J P Morgan and Wells Fargo. This has reinforced an already “risk on” environment and encouraged the major US equity averages to the upside, … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY bull threat to key 112.14 resistance

Last Friday (5th April) ahead of the US Employment report, we highlighted an upside risk for the USDJPY currency pair above a key level at 112.14 in our report. The subsequent setback avoided a more bullish shift, but recovery activity for the USDJPY Forex rate over the past 24 hours has highlighted this bull threat … Continued

Intermediate

Equity averages rebound, aiming higher again

Setbacks early this week for the major, global equity indices have reflected both bullish fatigue heading into earnings season, alongside concerns regarding trade tensions between the US and Europe (despite the positive soundings from US-Sino trade talks). Wednesday brought a slew of economic events, including UK GDP, US CPI, the ECB decision and FOMC Meeting … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD remains vulnerable into ECB meeting and Fed Minutes

The Euro remains somewhat vulnerable sustaining losses versus many major currencies through March, most notably the US Dollar, but including the Canadian and Australian Dollars and to a lesser extent the Pound. This has primary reflected a still very dovish European Central Bank (ECB), and a deterioration in European economic data, mostly in Germany in … Continued

Intermediate

Global equity indices firm, but cautious

The major global equity averages have taken a breath to start this week, after an extremely strong first quarter of gains and a firm start to April last week. European and UK equity indices have seen slight dips lower since last Friday, partially due to rebounds in the Euro and Pound, which have weighed on … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY poised for a bull signal into US Employment report

Still further gains to yet further highs for 2019 by global equity markets over the past 24 hours with anticipation of a positive outcome from the US-Sino trade negotiations. The overall “risk on” tone across global capital markets has also impacted Forex markets, with the Australian Dollar rebounding firmly this week, whilst the Japanese Yen, … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 stays strong, with another new high for the year

Global equity markets remain extremely strong with global economic data continuing to improve, particularly from China in early April. Furthermore, positive sounding ion the US-Sino trade negotiations have helped share markets higher to start the second quarter. This has built on the extremely strong start to the year, with the first quarter yielding extremely strong … Continued