Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

Global equity averages stay strong

Improving trade negotiations over the week with positive soundings from US-Sino trade talks have sustained an intermediate-term bullish theme for global equity averages into this week after a solid consolidation tone throughout last week. Furthermore, reports over the weekend that the UK is considering extend Article 50 by 3 months have been taken as a … Continued

Intermediate

Rate cut concerns weigh on the Australian Dollar

A better than anticipated Employment report for the Australia on Thursday initially saw a more positive tone for AUDUSD, but then a note from the Australian Investment Bank, Westpac that forecast two rate cuts for 2019 saw a selloff for AUDUSD. This price action, alongside ongoing concerns regarding global growth (despite positive soundings from US-Sino … Continued

Intermediate

Equities march higher

Strong upside advances on Wednesday for the US and global stock indices into and after the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their January Meeting, as the Fed view of patience on interest rates was reinforced. Furthermore, positive overnight developments regarding US-Sino trade negotiations have seen global share averages push still higher. This has seen global equity … Continued

Intermediate

GBP USD Forecast – The Pound rebounds

A solid recovery by Sterling over the past 24 hours, as the GB Pound has reacted to positive soundbites and rumours regarding developments in the Brexit negotiations. Furthermore, global asset classes have seen a shift to more of a “risk on” environment since last Friday, fuelled by an easing of global economic growth worries amid … Continued

Intermediate

Euro stays vulnerable

The Euro remains vulnerable, particularly versus the US Dollar, with recent rebound effort fading. Ongoing concerns regarding a global economic slowdown are intensifying, with signals from the European Central Bank that a still more dovish approach to monetary policy could be seen in 2019. Although the Federal Reserve in the US have also shifted to … Continued

Intermediate

Equities surge again

A surge higher in global equity averages on Friday 15th February, dismissing the significant corrective setback seen on Thursday (after poor US Retails Sales data and concerns regarding the progress of US-Sino trade talks). The recovery Friday was driven by a more upbeat assessment of the trade negations from both sides and a short-covering squeeze … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 stays firm, aided by a weakened Pound

In our report here yesterday (Wednesday 14th February), we highlighted downside risks for the Pound into another Brexit vote, with a technical trigger for GBPUSD below the key 1.2831/29 support The GBPUSD plunge through here alongside broader Pound weakness is often a positive for the UK benchmark index, the FTSE 100, as it is heavy … Continued

Intermediate

Pound poised for a more negative signal into another Brexit vote

The Pound remains under negative pressures in February, with threats of a potential No Deal Brexit growing, since the firm rally in January which was partially driven by a perception of a move away from this scenario. The Government faces another series of votes today, which leaves Sterling vulnerable again to further downside pressures. Here … Continued

Intermediate

Stock market averages re-energizing 2019 bull trends

The past week has seen correction activity across the major global stoic markets as ongoing global economic slowdown concerns have impacted on riskier asset classes. However, a strong recovery effort over the past 24-36 hours has been a reaction to hopes on avoiding another global shutdown and also from positive soundings regarding US-Sino trade negotiations. … Continued

Intermediate

Euro stays vulnerable to further losses

Significant downgrades in European growth forecast from the European Commission last week have subsequently weighed on the Euro. However, the EURUSD spot Forex rate had already been declining, through more seen as a consequence of US Dollar strength, with the US currency seen as a safe haven, given worries of a global economic slowdown. This … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices remain vulnerable to corrective losses

Global share markets suffered significant corrective losses from the middle of the last week, although these setbacks are currently viewed as corrective within the context of strong 2019 recovery rallies. Nevertheless, the depth of the price erosion for major US, European and Asian equity averages highlights risks for further losses at least in the short-term … Continued

Intermediate

Equity markets correct, risk for further setbacks

A notable corrective selloff for global equity markets over the past 24 hours as various “risk off” events have impacted asset classes. These included a more dovish, cautionary tone from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe on Wednesday as we featured here, a negative New Zealand Employment report and stark forecasts for Europe from the … Continued

Intermediate

Australian Dollar plunge after more dovish tone

The Australian Dollar saw a significant selloff on Wednesday after Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe signalled that interest rates could move either higher or even lower, given growing economic risks. This more dovish tone than has previously been indicated saw an already slightly unenthusiastic tone for the Australian Doller shift to a far more negative theme, … Continued

Intermediate

Pound weakens amid No Deal Brexit concerns and weak PMI data

Growing concerns that the Brexit negotiations could result in a No Deal outcome have weighed on Sterling over the past 1-2 weeks. Furthermore, a less than positive service sector Purchasing Managers Index report for the UK on Tuesday encouraged further negative price action for the UK currency. The GBPUSD break below some notable supports (2019 … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay buoyant into February

Major European, US and Asian equity averages have extended their strong starts to 2019 in January into February with many averages hitting new recovery rally highs on both Friday and Monday. This bullish tone has at least partially been encouraged by the continuing move towards a more dovish stance by the Federal Reserve, reinforced last … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar stays weak, pointing both EURUSD and GBPUSD higher

The ongoing shift to a more dovish viewpoint from the Federal Reserve last Wednesday 30th January has reinforced early 2019 weakness for the US Dollar. This has reinforced an already positive tone for EURUSD evident since the latter January rebound from ahead of key supports in the 1.1268/62 area, leaving the bias for further EURUSD … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay firm into US Employment report

A positive, “risk on” tone across global equity markets this week has been reinforced by US equity averages again moving to new 2019 highs at yesterday’s moth-end. This has been assisted by the further shift to a more dovish stance by the FOMC of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Of particular note has been the … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD stay bullish

Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have indicated a more positive tone in short-term consolidation phases since mid-January, but US Dollar weakness after the dovish Fed tone on Wednesday has seen a more positive tone appear for both these currency pairs. Furthermore, these gains have been reinforced by a more positive, “risk on” tone across global … Continued

Intermediate

European and UK equity indices aim higher

European equity markets and the major European and UK averages have started this last week of January on a positive note, probing either to the top end of recent consolidation ranges, or extending early 2019 recovery efforts. This positive activity has echoed optimism around the US-China trade negotiations that are beginning again this week, the … Continued

Intermediate

Pound bullishly poised into another significant Brexit vote

Another week and another key vote in the ongoing Brexit saga. Scenario analysis is still very difficult at the moment, but from a geopolitical, fundamental perspective the further the likely outcome continues to move away from a possible “no deal” Brexit and also away from a General Election, the more Sterling can continue to appreciate. … Continued