Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

Pound strengthens on Brexit delay hopes

A firm push higher for Sterling over the past 24 hours as rumours abound that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is opening up discussions within the Cabinet, on Tuesday 26th February, for a delay to the UK’s date for leaving the EU, currently set at 29th March 2019. This is seen as a positive for … Continued

Intermediate

Global equity averages stay strong

Improving trade negotiations over the week with positive soundings from US-Sino trade talks have sustained an intermediate-term bullish theme for global equity averages into this week after a solid consolidation tone throughout last week. Furthermore, reports over the weekend that the UK is considering extend Article 50 by 3 months have been taken as a … Continued

Intermediate

Rate cut concerns weigh on the Australian Dollar

A better than anticipated Employment report for the Australia on Thursday initially saw a more positive tone for AUDUSD, but then a note from the Australian Investment Bank, Westpac that forecast two rate cuts for 2019 saw a selloff for AUDUSD. This price action, alongside ongoing concerns regarding global growth (despite positive soundings from US-Sino … Continued

Intermediate

Equities march higher

Strong upside advances on Wednesday for the US and global stock indices into and after the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their January Meeting, as the Fed view of patience on interest rates was reinforced. Furthermore, positive overnight developments regarding US-Sino trade negotiations have seen global share averages push still higher. This has seen global equity … Continued

Intermediate

GBP USD Forecast – The Pound rebounds

A solid recovery by Sterling over the past 24 hours, as the GB Pound has reacted to positive soundbites and rumours regarding developments in the Brexit negotiations. Furthermore, global asset classes have seen a shift to more of a “risk on” environment since last Friday, fuelled by an easing of global economic growth worries amid … Continued

Intermediate

Euro stays vulnerable

The Euro remains vulnerable, particularly versus the US Dollar, with recent rebound effort fading. Ongoing concerns regarding a global economic slowdown are intensifying, with signals from the European Central Bank that a still more dovish approach to monetary policy could be seen in 2019. Although the Federal Reserve in the US have also shifted to … Continued

Intermediate

Equities surge again

A surge higher in global equity averages on Friday 15th February, dismissing the significant corrective setback seen on Thursday (after poor US Retails Sales data and concerns regarding the progress of US-Sino trade talks). The recovery Friday was driven by a more upbeat assessment of the trade negations from both sides and a short-covering squeeze … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 stays firm, aided by a weakened Pound

In our report here yesterday (Wednesday 14th February), we highlighted downside risks for the Pound into another Brexit vote, with a technical trigger for GBPUSD below the key 1.2831/29 support The GBPUSD plunge through here alongside broader Pound weakness is often a positive for the UK benchmark index, the FTSE 100, as it is heavy … Continued

Intermediate

Pound poised for a more negative signal into another Brexit vote

The Pound remains under negative pressures in February, with threats of a potential No Deal Brexit growing, since the firm rally in January which was partially driven by a perception of a move away from this scenario. The Government faces another series of votes today, which leaves Sterling vulnerable again to further downside pressures. Here … Continued

Intermediate

Stock market averages re-energizing 2019 bull trends

The past week has seen correction activity across the major global stoic markets as ongoing global economic slowdown concerns have impacted on riskier asset classes. However, a strong recovery effort over the past 24-36 hours has been a reaction to hopes on avoiding another global shutdown and also from positive soundings regarding US-Sino trade negotiations. … Continued

Intermediate

Euro stays vulnerable to further losses

Significant downgrades in European growth forecast from the European Commission last week have subsequently weighed on the Euro. However, the EURUSD spot Forex rate had already been declining, through more seen as a consequence of US Dollar strength, with the US currency seen as a safe haven, given worries of a global economic slowdown. This … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices remain vulnerable to corrective losses

Global share markets suffered significant corrective losses from the middle of the last week, although these setbacks are currently viewed as corrective within the context of strong 2019 recovery rallies. Nevertheless, the depth of the price erosion for major US, European and Asian equity averages highlights risks for further losses at least in the short-term … Continued

Intermediate

Equity markets correct, risk for further setbacks

A notable corrective selloff for global equity markets over the past 24 hours as various “risk off” events have impacted asset classes. These included a more dovish, cautionary tone from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe on Wednesday as we featured here, a negative New Zealand Employment report and stark forecasts for Europe from the … Continued

Intermediate

Australian Dollar plunge after more dovish tone

The Australian Dollar saw a significant selloff on Wednesday after Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe signalled that interest rates could move either higher or even lower, given growing economic risks. This more dovish tone than has previously been indicated saw an already slightly unenthusiastic tone for the Australian Dollar shift to a far more negative theme, … Continued

Intermediate

Pound weakens amid No Deal Brexit concerns and weak PMI data

Growing concerns that the Brexit negotiations could result in a No Deal outcome have weighed on Sterling over the past 1-2 weeks. Furthermore, a less than positive service sector Purchasing Managers Index report for the UK on Tuesday encouraged further negative price action for the UK currency. The GBPUSD break below some notable supports (2019 … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay buoyant into February

Major European, US and Asian equity averages have extended their strong starts to 2019 in January into February with many averages hitting new recovery rally highs on both Friday and Monday. This bullish tone has at least partially been encouraged by the continuing move towards a more dovish stance by the Federal Reserve, reinforced last … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar stays weak, pointing both EURUSD and GBPUSD higher

The ongoing shift to a more dovish viewpoint from the Federal Reserve last Wednesday 30th January has reinforced early 2019 weakness for the US Dollar. This has reinforced an already positive tone for EURUSD evident since the latter January rebound from ahead of key supports in the 1.1268/62 area, leaving the bias for further EURUSD … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay firm into US Employment report

A positive, “risk on” tone across global equity markets this week has been reinforced by US equity averages again moving to new 2019 highs at yesterday’s moth-end. This has been assisted by the further shift to a more dovish stance by the FOMC of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Of particular note has been the … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD stay bullish

Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have indicated a more positive tone in short-term consolidation phases since mid-January, but US Dollar weakness after the dovish Fed tone on Wednesday has seen a more positive tone appear for both these currency pairs. Furthermore, these gains have been reinforced by a more positive, “risk on” tone across global … Continued

Intermediate

European and UK equity indices aim higher

European equity markets and the major European and UK averages have started this last week of January on a positive note, probing either to the top end of recent consolidation ranges, or extending early 2019 recovery efforts. This positive activity has echoed optimism around the US-China trade negotiations that are beginning again this week, the … Continued

Intermediate

Pound bullishly poised into another significant Brexit vote

Another week and another key vote in the ongoing Brexit saga. Scenario analysis is still very difficult at the moment, but from a geopolitical, fundamental perspective the further the likely outcome continues to move away from a possible “no deal” Brexit and also away from a General Election, the more Sterling can continue to appreciate. … Continued

Intermediate

Equity markets stay firm, aim higher

A solid advance into the end of last week across the major global equity markets, with the major European averages (not including the FTSE 100) pushing to new recovery highs for 2019. This positive price action has reflected ongoing optimism around the US-Sino trade negotiations, the fact that the US government shutdown has at least … Continued

Intermediate

Euro weakness continues post-ECB

In our article here on Monday 21st January we highlighted downside risks for the Euro into Thursday’s ECB Meeting. The Euro stayed negative ahead of the Meeting, and has seen further weakness since, with EURUSD surrendering notable support (see below). This leaves the Euro vulnerable against major currencies, and in particular versus the US Dollar … Continued

Intermediate

Equity markets questioning the 2019 recovery rallies

2019 has seen a strong start for most global equity markets with major averages progressing higher by 5-10%, after weakness seen in December 2018. However, the recoveries have slowed and slightly corrected this week. This has partially been a result of no further positive developments in the major geopolitical risks that are still hanging over … Continued

Intermediate

The Pound stays positive

The GB Pound has retained a positive tone into this week with a strong rebound against most major currencies on Tuesday. This is in the face of ongoing Brexit uncertainty, though the perception is that a “no deal” Brexit is becoming less of a likely outcome, which is seen as a positive for the Pound. … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD corrective risks lower

Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been unable to sustain strong rallies through mid-January, that were evident since the “flash crash” selloffs at the very start of 2019. This has been particularly disappointing, given global equity markets have continued to push higher, with the Australian and New Zealand Dollars usually benefiting as perceived “risk” currencies during … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD downside threats ahead of Thursday’s ECB Meeting

The Euro has come under broad negative pressures through mid-January, driven by continuing political turmoil in France and Italy, plus in Greece, Tsipras called and closely survived a vote of no confidence. Furthermore, the European Central Bank had been expected to begin to tighten up their very accommodative monetary policy and maybe start hiking rates … Continued

Intermediate

The Pound stays strong with GBPUSD technical shift to bullish

In a prior report earlier this week we highlighted growing risks of a more bullish technical shift for the GB Pound, in particular noting bullish threats versus the generally weak US Dollar. Although the US Dollar has actually managed to post some notable corrective gains against other major currencies this week (Yen, Euro, the risk currencies … Continued

Intermediate

Global equity indices stay resilient, but still cautious

Global equity markets have enjoyed a positive start to 2019 and have been rallying in most instances since straight after the Christmas holiday. This solid tone has been a reaction to; a more dovish Federal reserve tone since the end of 2018, an improvement in the US-Sino trade negations and the ability of markets to … Continued

Intermediate

Pound and FTSE retain a positive bias through key Brexit vote

The key Brexit vote came and went on Tuesday evening with a far larger defat for the government than anticipated, but with the net impact on UK financial markets muted. The GB Pound saw a significant selloff with GBPUSD lower before and after the vote, but then a strong intraday rebound leaves GBPUSD in a … Continued

Intermediate

Equities poised for further up legs to the 2019 advances

Global equity indices have posted solid, sideways consolidation activity over the past week, defending support levels from the recent early 2019 recovery rallies. The strong advances so far this year have been driven by both a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve in the US and a perception of positive progress on trade talks … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD poised for a more bullish tone into key week for Brexit

Last week we highlighted upside risks for GBPUSD as we entered the key Brexit debate here, and with the vote now looming this week, GBPUSD has already made a technically positive statement. The push above the key 1.2840/64 area has signalled an intermediate-term shift from a bearish trend to a range environment, with risks skewed … Continued

Intermediate

Equity averages forming better bases

In articles already this week here and here we have highlighted basing effort by global equity averages (the S&P 500 and DAX). These technical bottoming attempts have been reinforced through this week from the fundamental side by apparent progress in the US-Sino trade talks and further dovish comments from Fed speakers, with the FOMC Minutes on … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD intermediate-term bullish shift

EURUSD saw a surge higher on Wednesday, primarily a reaction to an ongoing weakening US Dollar, as opposed to a particularly strong Euro. US Dollar weakness has been a theme for early 2019, given the more dovish tone from the Fed from late 2018 and in particular from FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC Minutes … Continued

Intermediate

European equity indices setting firmer bases; DAX focus

A shift to a more “risk on” environment has continued to develop through early 2019, building on latter 2018 recovery efforts across major European, US and Asian equity markets. This positive price action has been reflected by the major global averages overcoming notable technical resistance levels and was further enhanced by particularly strong price action … Continued

Intermediate

Pound sets up positive ahead of key Brexit debate

This week saw the return to business for the UK Parliament and from Wednesday 9ht January the debate restarts on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. At the moment, the high expectation is that this deal will struggle to get voted through, and the coming days will be of interest, possibly giving clues as to … Continued

Intermediate

Equity markets basing efforts

A very erratic tone for global equity markets into late 2018 and to start early 2019, but the first week of the new year ended on a positive with risks skewed towards the upside. A global equity market selloff into the Christmas holiday was then followed by a robust rebound before the end of the … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD intermediate-term bullish shift to start 2019

Although maybe driven by illiquidity at the start of a new year, the surge and the very beginning of 2019 trading above 1.1500 has produced an intermediate-term bullish shift. Furthermore, and despite the subsequent setback, this positive price action sets risks to the upside for Wednesday. For Today: We see an upside bias for 1.500/05 … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD bullish trend re-energized

The “risk off” activity seen from early December has intensified over the past week, with global slowdown concerns impacting negatively on the major commodity currencies, including the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. Furthermore, alongside and partially driven by this “risk off” theme, the Oil price continues its path to lower prices as evident throughout … Continued

Intermediate

Another equity market plunge

A rate hike by the Fed as expected on Wednesday 19th December, but the market had also anticipated a more dovish shift in overall tone. The more cautious tone going into 2019 was expected by global markets, given growing signs of a global slowdown, a softening of the US data and also the selloffs already … Continued

Intermediate

Equites still aiming lower into the Fed rate decision

A further “risk off” move across global equity markets on Tuesday (as seen from mid-December), and as we highlighted in yesterday’s report here, driven by US equity averages breaking through Q4 lows and now in the case of the S&P 500 to prod the 2018 low. Additionally, European equity averages have pushed down close to … Continued

Intermediate

Equites plunge again

The mid-December “risk off” moves across global financial markets (reacting to fears of a global slowdown), were reinforced on Monday by US equity averages plunging through recent Q4 lows. Moreover, this has placed the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 all close to he 2018 lows, set in Q1. Furthermore, … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY aims higher, despite global “risk off” concerns

USDJPY remains very much defined by an intermediate-term, broader range (we see as 114.21 and 112.20). But the recent “risk off” move across global capital markets, in reaction to fears of a global slowdown, have seen the US Dollar preferred as a safe haven currency, rallying against most major currencies and even versus the Japanese … Continued

Intermediate

European and US equity indices still trying to form bases

Global equity averages have tried rebound effort over the past week into mid-December, after the rather aggressive selloff seen early in the month to new multi-month lows. The recovery efforts into mid-month have reflected some relief that the trade war truce between the US and China is holding and optimism that behind the scenes progress … Continued

Intermediate

Pound erratic, but outlook stays negative as PM May holds on

Theresa May won the Conservative Party vote of no confidence in her leadership on Wednesday, with the GB Pound rallying ahead of the vote on anticipation of a positive outcome for the Prime Minister, with another unknown removed from the complex Brexit equation. However, Sterling then weakened after the vote, on a “buy the rumour … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD risks switch back lower

A rebound failure and then a plunge back lower Tuesday from below 1.1409 resistance to push below 1.1348 and 1.1320 supports, rejecting the erratic December recovery effort and flipping risks lower for Wednesday. The plunge through 1.1300 in the first half of November set an intermediate-term bear trend. For Today: We see a downside bias … Continued

Intermediate

Sterling plunges as Brexit vote is cancelled

The GB Pound FX rate was already looking vulnerable in the run in to the previously scheduled vote in Parliament today on the Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. However, the cancellation/ postponement of this vote saw the Pound sell off aggressive early across major G10 currencies, with GBPUSD sending a particularly negative technical signal. The … Continued

Intermediate

S&P 500 poised for an intermediate-term bearish shift

In two reports here late last week and here we highlighted the intermediate-term bearish technical signals sent by European and UK equity indices (the German DAX, the pan-European DJ EuroSTOXX 50 and the UK’s FTSE 100) A lacklustre rebound effort by these indices and US equity averages on Friday sustains the short-term negative theme and … Continued

Intermediate

European equity indices join the FTSE 100 in bearish shifts

In yesterday’s report here we noted the plunge lower by the FTSE 100 future for an intermediate-term bearish technical shift. Further losses for the FTSE 100 on Thursday reinforced this view, with the UK benchmark average joined in the negative technical development by major European equity indices. Both the German DAX index and the pan-European … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 Future sends negative chart signal

A plunge lower overnight by the FTSE 100 future has highlighted more than an upside rejection, with an intermediate-term bearish technical shift. The UK benchmark average pushed higher to start the week after the US-Sino trade war truce had appeared to signal a skewed upside risk for global equity indices into December. However, the subsequent … Continued