Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

European and US index futures surge to new 2019 highs

On Monday we looked at the re-energizing bull themes for the S&P 500 and the German flagship index, the DAX. This bullish tone has been reinforced by subsequent firm trading activity after Monday’s bull gaps to the upside, but more significantly overnight by positive geopolitical developments. The Financial Times reported that top US and Chinese … Continued

Intermediate

EUR/USD – Euro stays weak

Last Monday 25th March we highlighted Euro vulnerability here previously driven lower by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data. This weakness has continued in late March with dovish comments from European Central Bank members and the ongoing weakening of economic data across the Eurozone. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength through latter … Continued

Intermediate

US and European equity averages pointing North again

Last week we reported risks of a deeper correction to US and global equity markets. Subsequent strong advances across Asian, European and US stock markets and averages have rejected a more negative theme and seen risks flip back to the upside into early April. This morning has seen strong gains driven by optimism from Chinese … Continued

Intermediate

Pound weakens ahead of another key Brexit vote

In our report here on  Wednesday 27th March we highlighted a resilient tone for GBPUSD ahead of the indicative Brexit votes that evening. As we arrive today at 29th March, the previous Brexit deadline date, we stand ready for ANOTHER, third vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Although this deal received a boost … Continued

Intermediate

US equity averages threaten deeper corrections

US equity averages have taken a lead on the downside this week, with the previously more vulnerable European equity indices having taken global markets lower in latter March, during the current correction phase. The European equity average selloff has more recently been driven by slowing economic data, of note being last Friday’s (22nd March) German … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays solid ahead of indicative Brexit votes

The UK parliament prepares for indicative votes later today (Wednesday 27th March, scheduled for the evening) as the 29th March initial Brexit deadline draws closer. Parliament has scheduled 16 (yes, sixteen) options to choose from, increasing very short-term uncertainty. Although the Pound remains hesitant in the short-term, the underlying tone remains solid versus both the … Continued

Intermediate

Yen stays strong in risk off scenario

Last Friday’s very weak German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data was another blow to the global economic backdrop, with concerns throughout this year of a global slowdown in China, through Asia Pacific and increasingly also in Europe. This has seen riskier asset classes come under negative forces over the past week into latter March, with … Continued

Intermediate

Euro vulnerability

A Euro plunge in the latter part of last week, on Friday driven by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength again on Thursday-Friday against many major currencies, after US$ weakness was seen immediately after a far more dovish Federal reserve at their meeting on Wednesday. This … Continued

Intermediate

US equities surge back higher

A surge back higher for the major US equity averages on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new 2019 peaks and five-month highs. This price action has rejected the more negative tone from Wednesday after the Fed indicated a far more dovish tone than anticipated. The main drive to the upside has … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar plunges as the Fed stays dovish

The US Dollar has been weakening across major global currencies over the past 1-2 weeks, mainly driven by two factors. A shift to a more “risk on” environment with global stocks rallying has seen the US$ decline, as it is not in as great a demand as a safe haven. Furthermore, and more notable over … Continued

Intermediate

US equities strong, but cautious ahead of the Fed Meeting

A surge higher again Tuesday by US and global equity averages, in most cases positing new cycle and 2019 highs. This bullish behaviour has reinforced both short- and intermediate-term bullish themes that have dominated this year. The most recent up lift was triggered by the “No Deal” Brexit being taken off the table last week. … Continued

Intermediate

European equity markets head still higher

A broad, global “risk on” scenario” has resurfaced over the past week through mid-March, rejecting the very early March selloff which was a reaction to heightened fears regarding a global economic slowdown. Although no significant positive developments have been made on the US-Sino trade negotiations in the period, the removal of a “No Deal” Brexit … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays firm after a week of key Brexit votes

An erratic tone for the British Pound last week with multiple Brexit votes somewhat clearing the path forward, with a No Deal Brexit rejected and the UK Government now seeking to extend the Article 50 exit date beyond 29th March. However, a likely third vote on Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal is likely this week … Continued

Intermediate

European averages join US indices with bullish extensions

In yesterday’s report here we highlighted that the main US equity indices have produced aggressive rallies back higher this week, with both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hitting new highs for 2019. This has been driven by solid US macroeconomic data and an easing of global growth concerns, as the UK has moved away … Continued

Intermediate

US averages lead global stock indices back higher

The major US equity averages have seen an aggressive surge back higher this week, with US macroeconomic data continuing to stay strong, plus global relief as we move away from a No Deal Brexit. Stock markets have shrugged off the earlier March selloffs last week, that wiped out notable supports and likely reflected short- and … Continued

Intermediate

Pound erratic through first Brexit vote, with second vote in focus

An erratic tone for Sterling through the first vote on Prime Minister May’s new Brexit deal, but holding onto a positive technical tone. Again, depending on the outcome today, we have further votes over the next two days on a “no deal” Brexit and to extend the Article 50 leaving date. Again, as in yesterday’s … Continued

Intermediate

Pound strengthens on Brexit deal hopes into first key vote

A very strong rally by the Pound on Monday, with rumours and soundings of some breakthrough in Brexit negotiations. Today sees the first vote on Prime Minister May’s likely new Brexit deal and depending on the outcome, potentially further votes over the next two days on a “no deal” Brexit and to extend the Article … Continued

Intermediate

Equities plunge after US Jobs report, but rebound sets risk higher

A fairly aggressive selloff for US (and also global) equity averages on Friday after a very weak US Employment report, reinforcing a very negative week for US stock markets and also global indices. However, a firm intraday rebound into the close on Friday has avoided a more bearish signal and from a technical analysis perspective, … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD plunge post-ECB

In their meeting on Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) slashed GDP and inflation forecasts and shifted to a still more dovish stance, with a new round of monetary stimulus for banks. This unsettled European (and global) equity markets, saw a rush into safe haven Bunds (German Government Bonds) and saw a plunge in the … Continued

Intermediate

US equity indices look vulnerable to another correction lower

Despite positive soundings from the US-Sino trade talks over the weekend, early US equity market strength at the very start of this week quickly faded with significant selloff on Monday. Subsequent consolidation activity has been unable to allow the major US equity averages to claim back significant upside territory, leaving markets exposed to further losses. … Continued