Author

Steve Miley

Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.


Intermediate

Equity markets stay firm, aim higher

A solid advance into the end of last week across the major global equity markets, with the major European averages (not including the FTSE 100) pushing to new recovery highs for 2019. This positive price action has reflected ongoing optimism around the US-Sino trade negotiations, the fact that the US government shutdown has at least … Continued

Intermediate

Euro weakness continues post-ECB

In our article here on Monday 21st January we highlighted downside risks for the Euro into Thursday’s ECB Meeting. The Euro stayed negative ahead of the Meeting, and has seen further weakness since, with EURUSD surrendering notable support (see below). This leaves the Euro vulnerable against major currencies, and in particular versus the US Dollar … Continued

Intermediate

Equity markets questioning the 2019 recovery rallies

2019 has seen a strong start for most global equity markets with major averages progressing higher by 5-10%, after weakness seen in December 2018. However, the recoveries have slowed and slightly corrected this week. This has partially been a result of no further positive developments in the major geopolitical risks that are still hanging over … Continued

Intermediate

The Pound stays positive

The GB Pound has retained a positive tone into this week with a strong rebound against most major currencies on Tuesday. This is in the face of ongoing Brexit uncertainty, though the perception is that a “no deal” Brexit is becoming less of a likely outcome, which is seen as a positive for the Pound. … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD and NZDUSD corrective risks lower

Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been unable to sustain strong rallies through mid-January, that were evident since the “flash crash” selloffs at the very start of 2019. This has been particularly disappointing, given global equity markets have continued to push higher, with the Australian and New Zealand Dollars usually benefiting as perceived “risk” currencies during … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD downside threats ahead of Thursday’s ECB Meeting

The Euro has come under broad negative pressures through mid-January, driven by continuing political turmoil in France and Italy, plus in Greece, Tsipras called and closely survived a vote of no confidence. Furthermore, the European Central Bank had been expected to begin to tighten up their very accommodative monetary policy and maybe start hiking rates … Continued

Intermediate

The Pound stays strong with GBPUSD technical shift to bullish

In a prior report earlier this week we highlighted growing risks of a more bullish technical shift for the GB Pound, in particular noting bullish threats versus the generally weak US Dollar. Although the US Dollar has actually managed to post some notable corrective gains against other major currencies this week (Yen, Euro, the risk currencies … Continued

Intermediate

Global equity indices stay resilient, but still cautious

Global equity markets have enjoyed a positive start to 2019 and have been rallying in most instances since straight after the Christmas holiday. This solid tone has been a reaction to; a more dovish Federal reserve tone since the end of 2018, an improvement in the US-Sino trade negations and the ability of markets to … Continued

Intermediate

Pound and FTSE retain a positive bias through key Brexit vote

The key Brexit vote came and went on Tuesday evening with a far larger defat for the government than anticipated, but with the net impact on UK financial markets muted. The GB Pound saw a significant selloff with GBPUSD lower before and after the vote, but then a strong intraday rebound leaves GBPUSD in a … Continued

Intermediate

Equities poised for further up legs to the 2019 advances

Global equity indices have posted solid, sideways consolidation activity over the past week, defending support levels from the recent early 2019 recovery rallies. The strong advances so far this year have been driven by both a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve in the US and a perception of positive progress on trade talks … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD poised for a more bullish tone into key week for Brexit

Last week we highlighted upside risks for GBPUSD as we entered the key Brexit debate here, and with the vote now looming this week, GBPUSD has already made a technically positive statement. The push above the key 1.2840/64 area has signalled an intermediate-term shift from a bearish trend to a range environment, with risks skewed … Continued

Intermediate

Equity averages forming better bases

In articles already this week here and here we have highlighted basing effort by global equity averages (the S&P 500 and DAX). These technical bottoming attempts have been reinforced through this week from the fundamental side by apparent progress in the US-Sino trade talks and further dovish comments from Fed speakers, with the FOMC Minutes on … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD intermediate-term bullish shift

EURUSD saw a surge higher on Wednesday, primarily a reaction to an ongoing weakening US Dollar, as opposed to a particularly strong Euro. US Dollar weakness has been a theme for early 2019, given the more dovish tone from the Fed from late 2018 and in particular from FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC Minutes … Continued

Intermediate

European equity indices setting firmer bases; DAX focus

A shift to a more “risk on” environment has continued to develop through early 2019, building on latter 2018 recovery efforts across major European, US and Asian equity markets. This positive price action has been reflected by the major global averages overcoming notable technical resistance levels and was further enhanced by particularly strong price action … Continued

Intermediate

Pound sets up positive ahead of key Brexit debate

This week saw the return to business for the UK Parliament and from Wednesday 9ht January the debate restarts on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. At the moment, the high expectation is that this deal will struggle to get voted through, and the coming days will be of interest, possibly giving clues as to … Continued

Intermediate

Equity markets basing efforts

A very erratic tone for global equity markets into late 2018 and to start early 2019, but the first week of the new year ended on a positive with risks skewed towards the upside. A global equity market selloff into the Christmas holiday was then followed by a robust rebound before the end of the … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD intermediate-term bullish shift to start 2019

Although maybe driven by illiquidity at the start of a new year, the surge and the very beginning of 2019 trading above 1.1500 has produced an intermediate-term bullish shift. Furthermore, and despite the subsequent setback, this positive price action sets risks to the upside for Wednesday. For Today: We see an upside bias for 1.500/05 … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD bullish trend re-energized

The “risk off” activity seen from early December has intensified over the past week, with global slowdown concerns impacting negatively on the major commodity currencies, including the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. Furthermore, alongside and partially driven by this “risk off” theme, the Oil price continues its path to lower prices as evident throughout … Continued

Intermediate

Another equity market plunge

A rate hike by the Fed as expected on Wednesday 19th December, but the market had also anticipated a more dovish shift in overall tone. The more cautious tone going into 2019 was expected by global markets, given growing signs of a global slowdown, a softening of the US data and also the selloffs already … Continued

Intermediate

Equites still aiming lower into the Fed rate decision

A further “risk off” move across global equity markets on Tuesday (as seen from mid-December), and as we highlighted in yesterday’s report here, driven by US equity averages breaking through Q4 lows and now in the case of the S&P 500 to prod the 2018 low. Additionally, European equity averages have pushed down close to … Continued