As expected and as priced in, a rate hike from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday 26th September, as highlighted in our last report. Although the rate hike was expected, the FOMC Statement and Press Conference somewhat revealed a slightly more positive outlook for the economy than had been discounted in and … Continued
Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in-Chief for FXExplained.co.uk, the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, plus Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital.
At FXExplained.co.uk Steve is the Editor-in-Chief, alongside producing numerous articles for the site. The ability to be able to reach out to a wide, global audience with his own analysis and also assist and nurture other authors in their creative process makes this a role that Steve values deeply.
The Market Chartist
The Market Chartist was founded in 2012 and provides daily technical analysis reports, with written commentary and key support/ resistance levels to an institutional, professional and retail client base. The 30+ daily reports include European, UK and US Bonds & Equity Index Futures, G10 currencies, UK Natural Gas, TTF Gas, German Power, EUA Emissions and LME Base Metals.
As The Market Chartist, Steve has won many awards from the Technical Analyst Magazine. He was the 2016 & 2013 Winner (plus 2014 Runner Up) for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy and winner of Best FX Research & Strategy in 2012. He was also a finalist in the Technical Analyst of the Year category each year for 2012-2017.
Other Current Positions
Steve is also the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, a role he really enjoys. He appreciates the opportunity to be able to educate a diverse array of students in all aspects of the financial market’s world. Steve says “to be able to be a part of transforming an individual’s life through education is truly a privilege and very exciting”.
In his role as Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital, Steve supports and advises the investment management team by employing his extensive fundamental market experience, alongside his wealth of technical analysis knowledge. This allows him to add significant value to investment decisions.
Steve also writes extensively for numerous financial markets sites including: FxStreet.com, TechnicalAnalyst.co.uk, InsideFutures.com, BarChart.com, StockTwits.com, StockBrokers.com, AskTraders.com and Investing.com.
Previous to this, Steve was also a Senior Lecturer at The London Academy of Trading where he fully began his journey into the world of education. It was here that he honed his skills as a lecture and mentor in the world of financial markets education.
Vast Technical Analysis Experience
Steve has also helped technical analysis push into a new era in his previous role as Director at Vega Insight. Vega Insight is a relatively new company with a specific focus on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in global commodity and broader financial markets, with special focus on Energy. In his role Steve was responsible for the technical analysis inputs to the Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.
Steve spent 2009-2012 as a Director in the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse. Steve managed the FX division, responsible for the reports, forecasts and bank wide research for G10 & Emerging Markets currencies. In this role he also covered all major asset classes including Equity Indices, Rates & Credit, plus Commodities.
Steve spent most of his career at Merrill Lynch for 15 years from 1994-2009. The last ten years was as a Vice President in the research department as a technical analyst, responsible for daily reports, client presentations, plus in-house and client education programs. Prior to this, Steve was in the Fixed Income derivatives sales team where he managed the Italian Futures desk (BTP and EuroLira) on LIFFE (the London International Financial Futures Exchange). He was responsible for a four-man sales team, who consistently produced high volume of sales from both in-house and external clients.
He is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Master’s degree in politics, Philosophy & Economics from Oxford University (Lincoln College).
Today, Wednesday 26th September will see the financial markets focus firmly on the Fed and the FOMC Meeting, which is expected from market pricing to deliver another interest rate increase. Critical to focus on will be the statement and the press conference. Is the labour market too tight, is the flattening on the US Treasury … Continued
The FTSE 100 leapt higher Friday helped by a weakening GB Pound in the midst of renewed concerns regarding a more likely No Deal Brexit and with the current Conservative Government under Prime Minister Theresa May looking more fragile. GBPUSD was technically weakened by Friday’s selloff, leaving risks still lower for late September (and beyond). … Continued
A growing “risk on” phase from early September in the face of ongoing US-China Trade War developments has been recently reinforced by the recent recovery in Base Metals. A firm advance in the Copper price since mid-September has more recently signalled a technical bottoming pattern and points to higher price action through latter September and … Continued
An easing of fears and an apparent growing apathy from trader and investors regarding the US-Sino Trade War has seen global asset classes switch back to more of a “risk on” environment over the past 1-2 weeks. In particular, equity markets have stopped falling in Asia, started to rebound in Europe and resumed bull themes … Continued
A more positive “risk on” theme in early September has seen both a modest weakening of the US Dollar, alongside a more resilient tone for the Euro, which has pushed EURUSD back to the upper end of a multi-week, broader range environment. From a technical perspective, this leaves risks for an intermediate-term bullish shift for … Continued
The further easing of trade war fears with a glimmer of an improvement in US-Sino relations has caused global asset classes to move into a “risk on” theme, as global equity markets have been seen rebounding into mid-September alongside a broadly weaker US Dollar. This has allowed for a rebound effort by both AUDUSD and … Continued
Easing Trade War fears with a look to reopen talks between the US and China have slowly switched global markets back to a “risk on” environment this week. This has seen European and UK equity indices secure small bottoming patterns after recent losses and the US equity averages push back close to recent highs. This … Continued
Today, Thursday 13th September sees both the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB) hold their regular monetary policy meetings. From a technical perspective, both GBPUSD and EURUSD are caught within intermediate-term, broader range environment. Recent US Dollar corrective weakness amid global “risk on” moves have seen both GBPUSD and EURUSD push towards the … Continued
A rally and setback in the GB Pound this week have been a reaction to potential over optimism from the positive soundings from Michel Barnier and Brexit deal negotiators, sending GBP lower against many currencies over the past 24 hours. Furthermore, hopes of a breakthrough regarding dairy product access at the NAFTA talks has sets … Continued
Michel Barnier indicated on Monday 10th September that a Brexit deal could be possible in six to eight weeks by the end of November. This was taken positively by Forex markets with the GBPUSD currency rate jumping higher and through an important technical chart barrier at 1/3043. Although the FTSE 100 share index, the UK … Continued
The US Employment report for August was released on Friday 7th September with the Non-Farm Payroll and Average Hour Earnings data beating expectations. These data points highlighted a still strong US labour market and economic recovery, despite the back drop of the ongoing Trade War developments. Furthermore, markets have been alerted to a potentially more … Continued
Today, Friday 7th September sees the publication of the US Employment report for August. This much watched data event will be under particular scrutiny, to look for signs of any potentially negative (or possibly positive) impacts from the US-Sino trade war that has been developing in 2018. Here we take a deeper look into both … Continued
A NZDUSD better recovery tone through the middle of this week has eased some of the bearish pressures from the late August/ early September plunge to a new cycle low. This is in the face of a generally “risk off” environment across currency markets and global asset classes. This sets risks higher for today into … Continued
Still no trade deal agreement between the USA and Canada in relation to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), which continues to encourage Canadian Dollar weakness. Furthermore, the US Dollar continues to strengthen with Forex markets in a “risk off” mode. Today’s Bank of Canada Meeting could be key for a potentially intermediate-term technical shift … Continued
Growing concerns about the progress of Brexit negotiations saw EURGBP post its biggest one day fall in over three months on Monday. Over the weekend Michel Barnier appeared to reverse comments made last week, taking a negative position on Britain’s latest Brexit proposal. Whilst Prime Minister Theresa May has again faced strong opposition to her … Continued
The month of August concluded on Friday with no trade deal agreed between the USA and Canada in respect to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), after positive developments previously in latter August between the US and Mexico. The failure to reach agreement through a tentative deadline, alongside some would say antagonistic remarks from … Continued
Data is due on Friday 31st August for European Unemployment and the Consumer Price Index. These data points could have a significant impact on the path of the Euro in the FX markets (in this case focusing on the EURUSD currency rate). We would look for the August recovery rally by the EURISD forex rate … Continued
The GB Pound surged against both the US Dollar and the Euro on Wednesday 29th August in the wake of positive comments by EUR negotiator Barnier, highlighting prospects for a Brexit deal. The GBPUSD push above 1.3000 has decidedly eased intermediate-term bearish forces and leaves risks for a still more positive development above a key … Continued
Today, Wednesday 29th August we get the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also the Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices data. The latter of particularly significance as it is seen as a preferred measure for inflation pressures by the US Federal Reserve and FOMC. With the S&P 500 recently making a new record high above the … Continued
The US dollar has broadly extended strength from October into November, continuing to react positively to US economic data and to the expectation of tax reform USDJPY continues to target the key resistance level at 114.50, above which would allow another significant leg higher. USDCAD is currently seeing a small corrective dip, however, the reversal … Continued
US$ strength contuse to be a dominant Forex market theme, with the US currency benefiting from solid economic data (most recently the better than expected GDP data on Friday 27th October), plus a perception of a potentially more hawkish Fed. Less than impressive Australian data (CPI more recently) alongside the USD strength, has encouraged the … Continued
Today we introduce a new weekly feature to FXExplained.co.uk, our Weekly Global Recap and Look Ahead. To ensure that you do not miss out on this overview, or any other of our articles, please sign up to our mailing list here. Global overview Mid-October has seen global stock markets probe higher, as the overall “risk … Continued
The US dollar has seen a more weakened tone resume in early September. Furthermore, Euro strength against many currencies has allowed for a EURUSD surge through the psychological/option level at 1.2000, leaving September risk higher. The GBPUSD rebound has rejected a more negative tone with threat for a more bullish intermediate term outlook resuming, but … Continued
With geological receding slightly in later August USDJPY has pushed higher, with the Japanese Yen setting back versus many currencies. However, Gold has continued to push higher, outperforming the Yen in 2017 as a safe haven asset. We anticipate a far more stronger Gold price as geopolitical tensions look set to resume in September. See … Continued
The US Dollar has been erratic in late August, trying to reject underlying weakness in spite of continuing geopolitical pressures. Although EURUSD is correcting in the very short-term, the recent break above psychological/option resistance at 1.2000 has reinforced the intermediate-term bullish theme. GBPUSD corrective activity from early August neutralised the intermediate term bullish theme, but … Continued
A strong push higher into late July for GBPUSD (Cable), overcoming the previous bull cycle high at 1.3126. This has rejected recent corrective consolidation activity, maintaining and reinforcing the intermediate term bullish view into August. GBPUSD – Upside threat As anticipated push higher on Friday, rejecting the Thursday correction lower after the rebound from above … Continued
The US Dollar extends weakness versus most G10 currencies through mid-July. In particular, EURUSD has continued to surge in anticipation of a more hawkish ECB. GBPUSD has gone into a corrective consolidation mode, but the threat remains to the upside into August. EURUSD – Bullish trend reinforced Another probe to the upside on Friday to … Continued
Modest US Dollar corrective gains in early July have seen both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars lose ground to the US currency. For AUDUSD, risk is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to a neutral outlook, but only confirmed below .7532. For NZDUSD, the intermediate term bullish outlook remains more secure, only shifting to … Continued
A solid recovery effort by the Brent Crude and WTI oil futures contracts in late June has eased the intermediate term bearish outlook for the oil price. In turn, this has assisted with further Canadian Dollar currency strength, pushing USADCAD lower. Furthermore, further hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada point to potential interest rate … Continued
Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD FX rates retain intermediate-term bullish outlooks from positive signals produced previously in Q2 2017 However, recent indecisive activity has shifted the risk for the bullish seems to be neutralised, but still requiring confirmation with negative signals to the downside. For EURUSD, this would require push below 1.1107; for GBPUSD below … Continued
Both the AUD and NZD have posted bullish technical signals versus the USD in the first half of June, shifting the intermediate-term outlooks for AUDUSD and NZDUSD to the upside. For AUDUSD, the break above .7611 was the trigger leaving the threat into the second half of June towards the .7835/49/78 resistance area. With respect … Continued
A negative reaction to the General Election result in the UK at the end of last week for GBPUSD and although the intermediate-term outlook remains bullish, the very near term risk is to the downside for a correction. However, for the FTSE 100 index initial weakness was rejected with a strong rebound, likely driven by … Continued
Oil has been bearish since the plunge lower after the resolution of 25th May OPEC Meeting, with further losses seen late last week leaving the bias into early June. However, the Oil price weakness has not translated into significant Canadian Dollar weakness into early June. Furthermore, US Dollar losses after the Friday 2nd June US … Continued
Further consolidation Monday, however we see a negative tone after the push last week down through 111.43 support, keeping a downside bias for Tuesday. Furthermore, growing risk is for a break down through the bull gap at 109.57-45, which would see an intermediate-term shift back to bearish. For Today: l We see a downside bias … Continued
Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD retain a negative tone into the middle of May and beyond, having sent bearish signals in April. For NZDUSD, the break of .6867 indicated a more bearish intermediate-term theme and leads the threat lower the targets may be as deep as .667664 into the second half of May. For AUDUSD the … Continued
Both USDJPY and USDCAD have gone through a modest consolidation and correction phase into the beginning of May, however the underlying positive themes evident from mid-April remain very much intact. For USDJPY, the previous push above 112.20 has switched from an intermediate-term bearish theme to a broader range environment, but with a positive bias. For … Continued
A corrective rebound tone for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD in late April and already in early May, which we look to continue early this week. However, bearish intermediate-term developments in April lead the bigger picture risk for May for potentially more significant negative price action. For AUDUSD, the April push below .7487 signalled an intermediate-term … Continued
US Dollar gains in early April have damaged upside opportunities for both EURUSD and GBPUSD. For EURUSD, the pushback below 1.0598 has neutralised the intermediate-term bullish theme, shifting the intermediate term outlook back to neutral. GBPUSD remains within aa broader, non-trend, range environment, with reduced risk for a bullish shift, only signalled above … Continued
USDCAD remains within a broader non-trend environment, but late March losses through support have shifted the risk for a more negative consolidation seem into early April. For USDJPY, a push below key supports at 111.58 and critically 111.32 in late March shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish. But, a rebound into the end of the … Continued
Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have reinforced broader environments that have been evident since Q4 with recovery activity from 2016, with recovery activity from the first half of March stalling over the past week. For AUDUSD, for now this has ease the threat of a more bullish shift above .7778 for a near-term negative bias, although … Continued
On Wednesday, March 15 the Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated rate hike, however, the underlying tone was viewed by global market as less hawkish than anticipated. A more hawkish tone was expected, given comments from various FOMC members since late February. The US Dollar gains from late February against many of the major global currencies, … Continued
Heightening anticipation of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-March, given more hawkish statements from various Fed Committee Members since late February, has pushed US Treasuries to higher yield territory and in turn strengthened the US currency. For USDCAD, the early March push above 1.3387 neutralise intermediate-turn bearish pressures. Moreover, the … Continued
A resurgence of US dollar strength in early March driven by slightly more hawkish comments from numerous FOMC members has caused a setback for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD the over the past week. For NZDUSD, this has created a further short-term topping pattern and shifts the risk for a more negative tone into mid-March within … Continued
The break lower for EURUSD over the past week has shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, down through 1.0577. This switches the threat for late February and into March for a move to test the cycle low at 1.0339. However, the GB Pound has proved the technically more resilient of these two European currencies against … Continued
Strong consolidation by AUDUSD for early February has reinforced the bullish tone thus far in 2017, as previous highlighted here. However, a significant sell off for NZDUSD in the last week after the RBNZ meeting and statement, has rejected the previous upside threat and shifts risks lower into mid-February. A more bullish theme for AUDUSD … Continued
A positive consolidation tone has emerged for the GBPUSD and EURUSD FX rates since the start of 2017. This has seen late 2016 US$ bull trends neutralised in January. Moreover, not only have intermediate-term bearish risks for GBPUSD and EURUSD been rejected, but the disproportionate risk into February is for bullish trends to emerge. A … Continued
An erratic consolidation theme has emerged into late January for both the USDCAD and USDJPY spot FX rates. The US$ bull trend that dominated in November-December 2016 was neutralized with losses for the greenback in January. Although this has set intermediate-term range environments for both USDCAD and USDJPY, the threat into early February is still … Continued
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have boasted strong recovery efforts in 2017 versus the US Dollar, primarily a reaction to corrective weakness by the US currency. For AUDUSD, this has seen a push above the December peak at .7525, which is neutralised intermediate-term bearish pressures, shifting to a broader range environment, but with a … Continued
Despite the oil setback in early 2017, a rebound effort last week leaves a positive tone within a now intermediate-term range environment. However, the underlying theme remains for higher oil prices. Furthermore, the rebound in the oil price has allowed for a strengthening of the Canadian Dollar, which alongside the recent negative correction for the … Continued