Despite the oil setback in early 2017, a rebound effort last week leaves a positive tone within a now intermediate-term range environment. However, the underlying theme remains for higher oil prices. Furthermore, the rebound in the oil price has allowed for a strengthening of the Canadian Dollar, which alongside the recent negative correction for the … Continued
Having spent 2009-2012 as a Director of the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse and previously 15 years at Merrill Lynch. He has covered all major asset classes including Rates & Credit, Commodities, G10 & EM currencies and Equity Indices & Sectors.
He has strong relationships across the institutional financial trading spectrum and is the previous Winner of the Technical Analyst Magazine Award for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy 2013 and Runner Up in 2014. He was also a previous winner of Best FX Research 2012 whilst at Credit Suisse.
Steve holds a Masters Degree in Politics, Philosophy & Economics from Lincoln College, Oxford University.
The New Zealand and Australian Dollars have both seen notable corrective rebounds to the upside versus the US Dollar in early 2017. However, the significant bearish sell offs for NZDUSD and AUDUSD in November and December 2016, leaves bearish risks intact into this week (mid-January) and also for the month. Furthermore, the setback seen on … Continued
The US Dollar Has Continued to strengthen across most of the major global currencies since the FOMC rate hike decision on Wednesday (15th December). Although this rate hike was anticipated, a more hawkish stance into 2017 has allowed for further gains for the US currency. This leaves the near term forex forecast for further US … Continued
Both the New Zealand and Australian Dollars have produced modest recovery effort from late November into early December against the US Dollar, but late last week these rebounds versus the US currency have started to fade. This leaves the technical analysis FX forecasts still very negative for NZDUSD and AUDUSD on intermediate-term outlooks. We anticipate … Continued
The GB Pound has retained an extremely positive tone versus the US currency since the US Presidential election result, one of the few global currencies to actually trade higher against the USD since the Trump victory. Moreover, the GBPUSD (Cable) push above 1.2674 in early December has created short/intermediate-term-term basing structure, which shifts the intermediate-term … Continued
The US dollar was already exhibiting a bullish technical analysis tone versus both the Euro and Japanese yen (the G3 currency complex) in early November. But a surge by the Dollar since the US Presidential election result across the major currencies has been particularly impressive within G3. This leaves the Forex market analysis for a … Continued
We now apply our Forex market technical analysis to the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currency FX rates, with both these Forex markets shifting to far more bearish themes through the middle of November. For AUDUSD, the break below the September low at .7438 has completed an intermediate-term topping structure, potentially a five peak top, to … Continued
Within the Forex world, nearly all of the major currencies have suffered significant erosion versus the US Dollar since the US presidential election result on Wednesday 9th November. However, the GB Pound has been on an upward path since late October versus the US currency. Although GBPUSD (Cable) did suffer a minor setback on Wednesday, … Continued
USDCAD managed to push higher to another new cycle high this week after the US election result. This move is all the more impressive given that there was a rebound in the oil price (see the Brent Crude Future chart below). Usually, the correlation would be for a higher oil price to benefit the Canadian … Continued
US dollar weakness has emerged through early November, primarily driven by the erosion to US (and global) equity markets in reaction to both concerns regarding the US Presidential election and also a far from encouraging earning season. Read more market analyses Daily S&P 500 Future Chart This has allowed for AUDUSD to push towards … Continued
USDCAD surged to another new cycle high for H2 2016 over the past week. Having signalled a more bullish shift back in early October, the recent setback questioned the bullish intermediate-term outlook. But the strong recovery effort from ahead of support at 1.2996 to the new recovery high has indicated a re-energised bullish team for … Continued
The US Dollar has rejected weakness seen throughout September for a more positive tone across G10 currencies from late September into early and mid-October. Furthermore, USDJPY gains have rejected a potential bearish continuation below support at 99.51 and 99.00, but more importantly the rebound has signalled a more bullish outlook for the second half of … Continued
The US Dollar has displayed a far more bullish tone from late September, but particularly now through early October, with growing expectations of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve into the end of the year, likely in December. Furthermore, the perception of a more hawkish Fed into 2017 could encourage ongoing US$ gains for … Continued
A so called “Flash Crash” for GBPUSD at the start of the Asian trading day on Friday (7th October). But what is a “Flash Crash”, what potentially caused it and what is the impact for Cable (GBPUSD) going forward? What is a “Flash Crash”? A “Flash Crash”, is a term used to describe an … Continued
Video Analysis The technical threat is mounting for an intermediate-term bull tone into mid-September, signalled by a break above 1.3534. UK data continues to surprise on the upside, most recently on Monday 5th September with the Services Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey for the UK which bounced back from 47.4 in July to 52.9 for August. … Continued
Video Analysis An aggressive rally through the US and Canadian Employment reports on Friday (5th June) has seen both a short-term bullish shift and also threat of an intermediate-term bullish switch into mid-August (see above 1.3296). Read more forex market forecasts A prod below the 1.3000 support low from late July on Thursday (to 1.2995), … Continued
Video Analysis An extremely dovish outcome from the Bank of England Meeting on Thursday, with a rate cut and additional quantitative easing. Although technical supports were breached (1.3279, 1.3226, 1.3168, 1.3149), stronger foundations in the 1.3070/57/47 area have held. This leaves bias in the very near term for a rebound, back maybe towards the upper … Continued