Still no trade deal agreement between the USA and Canada in relation to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), which continues to encourage Canadian Dollar weakness. Furthermore, the US Dollar continues to strengthen with Forex markets in a “risk off” mode. Today’s Bank of Canada Meeting could be key for a potentially intermediate-term technical shift … Continued
Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in-Chief for FXExplained.co.uk, the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, plus Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital.
At FXExplained.co.uk Steve is the Editor-in-Chief, alongside producing numerous articles for the site. The ability to be able to reach out to a wide, global audience with his own analysis and also assist and nurture other authors in their creative process makes this a role that Steve values deeply.
The Market Chartist
The Market Chartist was founded in 2012 and provides daily technical analysis reports, with written commentary and key support/ resistance levels to an institutional, professional and retail client base. The 30+ daily reports include European, UK and US Bonds & Equity Index Futures, G10 currencies, UK Natural Gas, TTF Gas, German Power, EUA Emissions and LME Base Metals.
As The Market Chartist, Steve has won many awards from the Technical Analyst Magazine. He was the 2016 & 2013 Winner (plus 2014 Runner Up) for Best Independent Fixed Income Research & Strategy and winner of Best FX Research & Strategy in 2012. He was also a finalist in the Technical Analyst of the Year category each year for 2012-2017.
Other Current Positions
Steve is also the Academic Dean for The London School of Wealth Management, a role he really enjoys. He appreciates the opportunity to be able to educate a diverse array of students in all aspects of the financial market’s world. Steve says “to be able to be a part of transforming an individual’s life through education is truly a privilege and very exciting”.
In his role as Senior Investment Advisor at Kylin Prime Capital, Steve supports and advises the investment management team by employing his extensive fundamental market experience, alongside his wealth of technical analysis knowledge. This allows him to add significant value to investment decisions.
Steve also writes extensively for numerous financial markets sites including: FxStreet.com, TechnicalAnalyst.co.uk, InsideFutures.com, BarChart.com, StockTwits.com, StockBrokers.com, AskTraders.com and Investing.com.
Previous to this, Steve was also a Senior Lecturer at The London Academy of Trading where he fully began his journey into the world of education. It was here that he honed his skills as a lecture and mentor in the world of financial markets education.
Vast Technical Analysis Experience
Steve has also helped technical analysis push into a new era in his previous role as Director at Vega Insight. Vega Insight is a relatively new company with a specific focus on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in global commodity and broader financial markets, with special focus on Energy. In his role Steve was responsible for the technical analysis inputs to the Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.
Steve spent 2009-2012 as a Director in the Technical Analysis Research Strategy team at Credit Suisse. Steve managed the FX division, responsible for the reports, forecasts and bank wide research for G10 & Emerging Markets currencies. In this role he also covered all major asset classes including Equity Indices, Rates & Credit, plus Commodities.
Steve spent most of his career at Merrill Lynch for 15 years from 1994-2009. The last ten years was as a Vice President in the research department as a technical analyst, responsible for daily reports, client presentations, plus in-house and client education programs. Prior to this, Steve was in the Fixed Income derivatives sales team where he managed the Italian Futures desk (BTP and EuroLira) on LIFFE (the London International Financial Futures Exchange). He was responsible for a four-man sales team, who consistently produced high volume of sales from both in-house and external clients.
He is a Member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) and holds a Master’s degree in politics, Philosophy & Economics from Oxford University (Lincoln College).
Growing concerns about the progress of Brexit negotiations saw EURGBP post its biggest one day fall in over three months on Monday. Over the weekend Michel Barnier appeared to reverse comments made last week, taking a negative position on Britain’s latest Brexit proposal. Whilst Prime Minister Theresa May has again faced strong opposition to her … Continued
The month of August concluded on Friday with no trade deal agreed between the USA and Canada in respect to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), after positive developments previously in latter August between the US and Mexico. The failure to reach agreement through a tentative deadline, alongside some would say antagonistic remarks from … Continued
Data is due on Friday 31st August for European Unemployment and the Consumer Price Index. These data points could have a significant impact on the path of the Euro in the FX markets (in this case focusing on the EURUSD currency rate). We would look for the August recovery rally by the EURISD forex rate … Continued
The GB Pound surged against both the US Dollar and the Euro on Wednesday 29th August in the wake of positive comments by EUR negotiator Barnier, highlighting prospects for a Brexit deal. The GBPUSD push above 1.3000 has decidedly eased intermediate-term bearish forces and leaves risks for a still more positive development above a key … Continued
Today, Wednesday 29th August we get the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also the Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices data. The latter of particularly significance as it is seen as a preferred measure for inflation pressures by the US Federal Reserve and FOMC. With the S&P 500 recently making a new record high above the … Continued
The US dollar has broadly extended strength from October into November, continuing to react positively to US economic data and to the expectation of tax reform USDJPY continues to target the key resistance level at 114.50, above which would allow another significant leg higher. USDCAD is currently seeing a small corrective dip, however, the reversal … Continued
US$ strength contuse to be a dominant Forex market theme, with the US currency benefiting from solid economic data (most recently the better than expected GDP data on Friday 27th October), plus a perception of a potentially more hawkish Fed. Less than impressive Australian data (CPI more recently) alongside the USD strength, has encouraged the … Continued
Today we introduce a new weekly feature to FXExplained.co.uk, our Weekly Global Recap and Look Ahead. To ensure that you do not miss out on this overview, or any other of our articles, please sign up to our mailing list here. Global overview Mid-October has seen global stock markets probe higher, as the overall “risk … Continued
The US dollar has seen a more weakened tone resume in early September. Furthermore, Euro strength against many currencies has allowed for a EURUSD surge through the psychological/option level at 1.2000, leaving September risk higher. The GBPUSD rebound has rejected a more negative tone with threat for a more bullish intermediate term outlook resuming, but … Continued
With geological receding slightly in later August USDJPY has pushed higher, with the Japanese Yen setting back versus many currencies. However, Gold has continued to push higher, outperforming the Yen in 2017 as a safe haven asset. We anticipate a far more stronger Gold price as geopolitical tensions look set to resume in September. See … Continued
The US Dollar has been erratic in late August, trying to reject underlying weakness in spite of continuing geopolitical pressures. Although EURUSD is correcting in the very short-term, the recent break above psychological/option resistance at 1.2000 has reinforced the intermediate-term bullish theme. GBPUSD corrective activity from early August neutralised the intermediate term bullish theme, but … Continued
A strong push higher into late July for GBPUSD (Cable), overcoming the previous bull cycle high at 1.3126. This has rejected recent corrective consolidation activity, maintaining and reinforcing the intermediate term bullish view into August. GBPUSD – Upside threat As anticipated push higher on Friday, rejecting the Thursday correction lower after the rebound from above … Continued
The US Dollar extends weakness versus most G10 currencies through mid-July. In particular, EURUSD has continued to surge in anticipation of a more hawkish ECB. GBPUSD has gone into a corrective consolidation mode, but the threat remains to the upside into August. EURUSD – Bullish trend reinforced Another probe to the upside on Friday to … Continued
Modest US Dollar corrective gains in early July have seen both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars lose ground to the US currency. For AUDUSD, risk is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to a neutral outlook, but only confirmed below .7532. For NZDUSD, the intermediate term bullish outlook remains more secure, only shifting to … Continued
A solid recovery effort by the Brent Crude and WTI oil futures contracts in late June has eased the intermediate term bearish outlook for the oil price. In turn, this has assisted with further Canadian Dollar currency strength, pushing USADCAD lower. Furthermore, further hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada point to potential interest rate … Continued
Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD FX rates retain intermediate-term bullish outlooks from positive signals produced previously in Q2 2017 However, recent indecisive activity has shifted the risk for the bullish seems to be neutralised, but still requiring confirmation with negative signals to the downside. For EURUSD, this would require push below 1.1107; for GBPUSD below … Continued
Both the AUD and NZD have posted bullish technical signals versus the USD in the first half of June, shifting the intermediate-term outlooks for AUDUSD and NZDUSD to the upside. For AUDUSD, the break above .7611 was the trigger leaving the threat into the second half of June towards the .7835/49/78 resistance area. With respect … Continued
A negative reaction to the General Election result in the UK at the end of last week for GBPUSD and although the intermediate-term outlook remains bullish, the very near term risk is to the downside for a correction. However, for the FTSE 100 index initial weakness was rejected with a strong rebound, likely driven by … Continued
Oil has been bearish since the plunge lower after the resolution of 25th May OPEC Meeting, with further losses seen late last week leaving the bias into early June. However, the Oil price weakness has not translated into significant Canadian Dollar weakness into early June. Furthermore, US Dollar losses after the Friday 2nd June US … Continued
Further consolidation Monday, however we see a negative tone after the push last week down through 111.43 support, keeping a downside bias for Tuesday. Furthermore, growing risk is for a break down through the bull gap at 109.57-45, which would see an intermediate-term shift back to bearish. For Today: l We see a downside bias … Continued
Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD retain a negative tone into the middle of May and beyond, having sent bearish signals in April. For NZDUSD, the break of .6867 indicated a more bearish intermediate-term theme and leads the threat lower the targets may be as deep as .667664 into the second half of May. For AUDUSD the … Continued
Both USDJPY and USDCAD have gone through a modest consolidation and correction phase into the beginning of May, however the underlying positive themes evident from mid-April remain very much intact. For USDJPY, the previous push above 112.20 has switched from an intermediate-term bearish theme to a broader range environment, but with a positive bias. For … Continued
A corrective rebound tone for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD in late April and already in early May, which we look to continue early this week. However, bearish intermediate-term developments in April lead the bigger picture risk for May for potentially more significant negative price action. For AUDUSD, the April push below .7487 signalled an intermediate-term … Continued
US Dollar gains in early April have damaged upside opportunities for both EURUSD and GBPUSD. For EURUSD, the pushback below 1.0598 has neutralised the intermediate-term bullish theme, shifting the intermediate term outlook back to neutral. GBPUSD remains within aa broader, non-trend, range environment, with reduced risk for a bullish shift, only signalled above … Continued
USDCAD remains within a broader non-trend environment, but late March losses through support have shifted the risk for a more negative consolidation seem into early April. For USDJPY, a push below key supports at 111.58 and critically 111.32 in late March shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish. But, a rebound into the end of the … Continued
Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have reinforced broader environments that have been evident since Q4 with recovery activity from 2016, with recovery activity from the first half of March stalling over the past week. For AUDUSD, for now this has ease the threat of a more bullish shift above .7778 for a near-term negative bias, although … Continued
On Wednesday, March 15 the Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated rate hike, however, the underlying tone was viewed by global market as less hawkish than anticipated. A more hawkish tone was expected, given comments from various FOMC members since late February. The US Dollar gains from late February against many of the major global currencies, … Continued
Heightening anticipation of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-March, given more hawkish statements from various Fed Committee Members since late February, has pushed US Treasuries to higher yield territory and in turn strengthened the US currency. For USDCAD, the early March push above 1.3387 neutralise intermediate-turn bearish pressures. Moreover, the … Continued
A resurgence of US dollar strength in early March driven by slightly more hawkish comments from numerous FOMC members has caused a setback for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD the over the past week. For NZDUSD, this has created a further short-term topping pattern and shifts the risk for a more negative tone into mid-March within … Continued
The break lower for EURUSD over the past week has shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, down through 1.0577. This switches the threat for late February and into March for a move to test the cycle low at 1.0339. However, the GB Pound has proved the technically more resilient of these two European currencies against … Continued
Strong consolidation by AUDUSD for early February has reinforced the bullish tone thus far in 2017, as previous highlighted here. However, a significant sell off for NZDUSD in the last week after the RBNZ meeting and statement, has rejected the previous upside threat and shifts risks lower into mid-February. A more bullish theme for AUDUSD … Continued
A positive consolidation tone has emerged for the GBPUSD and EURUSD FX rates since the start of 2017. This has seen late 2016 US$ bull trends neutralised in January. Moreover, not only have intermediate-term bearish risks for GBPUSD and EURUSD been rejected, but the disproportionate risk into February is for bullish trends to emerge. A … Continued
An erratic consolidation theme has emerged into late January for both the USDCAD and USDJPY spot FX rates. The US$ bull trend that dominated in November-December 2016 was neutralized with losses for the greenback in January. Although this has set intermediate-term range environments for both USDCAD and USDJPY, the threat into early February is still … Continued
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have boasted strong recovery efforts in 2017 versus the US Dollar, primarily a reaction to corrective weakness by the US currency. For AUDUSD, this has seen a push above the December peak at .7525, which is neutralised intermediate-term bearish pressures, shifting to a broader range environment, but with a … Continued
Despite the oil setback in early 2017, a rebound effort last week leaves a positive tone within a now intermediate-term range environment. However, the underlying theme remains for higher oil prices. Furthermore, the rebound in the oil price has allowed for a strengthening of the Canadian Dollar, which alongside the recent negative correction for the … Continued
The New Zealand and Australian Dollars have both seen notable corrective rebounds to the upside versus the US Dollar in early 2017. However, the significant bearish sell offs for NZDUSD and AUDUSD in November and December 2016, leaves bearish risks intact into this week (mid-January) and also for the month. Furthermore, the setback seen on … Continued
The US Dollar Has Continued to strengthen across most of the major global currencies since the FOMC rate hike decision on Wednesday (15th December). Although this rate hike was anticipated, a more hawkish stance into 2017 has allowed for further gains for the US currency. This leaves the near term forex forecast for further US … Continued
Both the New Zealand and Australian Dollars have produced modest recovery effort from late November into early December against the US Dollar, but late last week these rebounds versus the US currency have started to fade. This leaves the technical analysis FX forecasts still very negative for NZDUSD and AUDUSD on intermediate-term outlooks. We anticipate … Continued
The GB Pound has retained an extremely positive tone versus the US currency since the US Presidential election result, one of the few global currencies to actually trade higher against the USD since the Trump victory. Moreover, the GBPUSD (Cable) push above 1.2674 in early December has created short/intermediate-term-term basing structure, which shifts the intermediate-term … Continued
The US dollar was already exhibiting a bullish technical analysis tone versus both the Euro and Japanese yen (the G3 currency complex) in early November. But a surge by the Dollar since the US Presidential election result across the major currencies has been particularly impressive within G3. This leaves the Forex market analysis for a … Continued
We now apply our Forex market technical analysis to the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currency FX rates, with both these Forex markets shifting to far more bearish themes through the middle of November. For AUDUSD, the break below the September low at .7438 has completed an intermediate-term topping structure, potentially a five peak top, to … Continued
Within the Forex world, nearly all of the major currencies have suffered significant erosion versus the US Dollar since the US presidential election result on Wednesday 9th November. However, the GB Pound has been on an upward path since late October versus the US currency. Although GBPUSD (Cable) did suffer a minor setback on Wednesday, … Continued
USDCAD managed to push higher to another new cycle high this week after the US election result. This move is all the more impressive given that there was a rebound in the oil price (see the Brent Crude Future chart below). Usually, the correlation would be for a higher oil price to benefit the Canadian … Continued
US dollar weakness has emerged through early November, primarily driven by the erosion to US (and global) equity markets in reaction to both concerns regarding the US Presidential election and also a far from encouraging earning season. Read more market analyses Daily S&P 500 Future Chart This has allowed for AUDUSD to push towards … Continued
USDCAD surged to another new cycle high for H2 2016 over the past week. Having signalled a more bullish shift back in early October, the recent setback questioned the bullish intermediate-term outlook. But the strong recovery effort from ahead of support at 1.2996 to the new recovery high has indicated a re-energised bullish team for … Continued
The US Dollar has rejected weakness seen throughout September for a more positive tone across G10 currencies from late September into early and mid-October. Furthermore, USDJPY gains have rejected a potential bearish continuation below support at 99.51 and 99.00, but more importantly the rebound has signalled a more bullish outlook for the second half of … Continued
The US Dollar has displayed a far more bullish tone from late September, but particularly now through early October, with growing expectations of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve into the end of the year, likely in December. Furthermore, the perception of a more hawkish Fed into 2017 could encourage ongoing US$ gains for … Continued
A so called “Flash Crash” for GBPUSD at the start of the Asian trading day on Friday (7th October). But what is a “Flash Crash”, what potentially caused it and what is the impact for Cable (GBPUSD) going forward? What is a “Flash Crash”? A “Flash Crash”, is a term used to describe an … Continued
Video Analysis The technical threat is mounting for an intermediate-term bull tone into mid-September, signalled by a break above 1.3534. UK data continues to surprise on the upside, most recently on Monday 5th September with the Services Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey for the UK which bounced back from 47.4 in July to 52.9 for August. … Continued