Author

Stephen Pope

Macroeconomic Strategist
http://spotlightideas.net/

Stephen Pope is the Managing Partner of Spotlight Group. He has worked in the world of finance since 1982 and has performed duties as a salesman, market maker trader and analyst. Stephen brings this wealth of experience gained at American, British, French, and Japanese institutions to bear in his analytical work.

He has a broad base of client service having advised national agencies such as Central Banks, Government Ministries, and Sovereign Wealth Funds and from the private sector, Commercial and Investment Banks, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds and Publicly Listed Corporations.
Clients have been covered in all geographic regions and time zones embracing 36 nations.

Stephen gained his BA (HONS) Economics (II.I) from the University of Warwick in 1982 and his MBA from Henley Management College in 1995.
He gained professional examination awards from the Association of International Bond Dealers (Now called the International Capital Markets Association) in 1988, is a member of the Financial Conduct Authority and has been a Fellow of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment.


Intermediate

Copper is a Dead Cat

At the start of the year the outlook for copper was constructive That soon fizzled out as Trump trade tirade grew louder A corrective channel started in June, it has crashed through key averages Despite the potential of a small uptick, it will be a dead cat bounce Copper for July delivery ended at $2.751/lb, … Continued

Intermediate

Summer may be hot, but it’s gone cold

US economic strength and an optimistic Fed are driving the Dollar Dollar exorbitant privilege is undermining gold A corrective channel started in April and appears to be taking hold Despite many global problems to drive risk aversion, gold is no longer a safe haven   In early May I wrote the gold prices were proving … Continued

Intermediate

Greece…Still Bankrupt

The Greek economy has made minor improvements It will not really exit the bailout programme in August A weak government will dither over further reform It will, eventually seek yet another credit line Greece should be shunned in the capital markets Since the Greek economy was laid bare in 2010 successive administrations have preceded over … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY… US Dollar struggles

USD began the week in the ascendency against the Yen This broke down as the week drew on The USDJPY pair is used as a vehicle to express trade-war concerns The short-term outlook for the USDJPY is soft The technical picture for the USDJPY pair is muddled with short and long measures saying buy the … Continued

Intermediate

Oil Prices Driven by Thoughts of Excess Demand

President Trump wants nations to stop importing oil from Iran This would impact global supply; Iran accounts for 5% of global production The impact of a successful ban on Iran and Venezuela etc would lift prices The outlook is bullish for WTI and targets $81/Barrel The oil price in the U.S. continued to make higher … Continued

Intermediate

Two Approaches to the Dollar Index

The Dollar has lost some its gloss this week This was because data and developments with Greece were Euro friendly The Dollar Index holds our attention as rates are normalising The short-term outlook is cagey… … however, on a one-week basis upside potential is available The trade concern has cooled the Dollar’s upward momentum that … Continued

Intermediate

Oil Prices Wait on Opec

Crude is under pressure as the markets awaits Opec It holds our attention as Opec produces 40% of the world’s total crude oil The Saudis and Russian’s both see a need to raise production President Trump has blamed Opec for recent price spikes Prices are set to be quiet until Thursday and Friday Oil prices … Continued

Intermediate

Can Corn Keep Climbing?

Commodities in the grain complex have moved higher China was ending penalties against imports of U.S. grains After the 30-minute measure, technicals all look highly positive Corn looks set to make steady gains, extending the recent run higher There was a new swagger in the step of grain futures at the end of the past … Continued

Intermediate

Oil prices suddenly look beautifully bullish

Crude has spiked 19% this year, to prices unseen since late 2014 Iran produced 5.1% percent of the world’s total crude oil Focus in the oil market will remain on geopolitical tension in the Middle East After President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iranian nuclear agreement Prices are set to advance over the summer … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Frustrates Through April/May

U.S. Dollar Index has made great upward strides The World Gold Council said gold demand has slumped The metal may be down, but it is not out. Prices are set to advance over the summer into Q3 On April 2nd I said in the note titled “Gold Still In Focus”: “…Rising interest rates will put … Continued

Intermediate

Cotton On

Cotton prices have been steered by subsidies and tariffs in recent months The technical aspect is looking highly bullish The commodity sector is in general undervalued Grains and softs look to be in the sweet spot with cotton to target 95 Many factors can have an impact the price of cotton. These range from the … Continued

Intermediate

Look past Trump, the data will push

Since April 5th, USDJPY moved above a downward sloping trend line On Friday, the price extended above the April high at 107.486 The price remains above the March high at 107.286 Look for a push to 108.000   USDJPY climbed to a 1-month high on Friday President Trump toned down his rhetoric on China and … Continued

Intermediate

Trade Tariffs Fuel Farm Fury & Crop

U.S and China are set on a trade tariff collision course The mid-west states that supported Trump are feeling the heat Their appeals for a solution have so far been ignored They may be minded to express their ire in November’s mid-terms It feels like soybeans should be sold on strength It seems that President … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Still In Focus

Gold and U.S debt levels are highly correlated The path of U.S. debt cannot go higher forever There may be a lag until Q3, however, I fully expect prices to shoot higher Following on from last week’s analysis paper on gold, I thought it useful to stay with this subject as one has to consider … Continued

Intermediate

Gold at Month High on Trump’s Tariff

Gold offers a safe haven as the threat of a trade war leave markets in a malaise. Gold prices jumped in the past week with the precious metal up nearly 2.7% to trade at $1347.20/Troy Oz at the New York close on Friday. The move of +$19.80 or +1.49% came amid continued weakness in broader … Continued

Beginner

Bitcoin Embracing The Death Cross

Bitcoin Dollar slips on South Korean raids Spot has crossed under the 200-day moving average Now look for the 50-day moving average to do the same The process of mining in New York state just became more expensive Brace yourself for more excessive downside movement   Bitcoin has fallen dramatically against the U.S. Dollar so … Continued

Intermediate

Earnings and Tariffs Pressure Dollar

The Dollar slips on soft wages and the Trump tariff threat Average hourly earnings rose a paltry 0.1% The chance of four rate changes this year just receded U.S. employment data released on Friday showed a particularly strong February, with the Non-Farm Payroll coming in at 313K. This was a 20-month high that was over … Continued

Intermediate

Silver Could Be Golden

Silver is increasingly attractive as the Dollar slips on the Trump tariff threat The 200-day moving average is proving supportive Prices could rally to $19.45/Troy Oz, a gain of 17.6% More most investors that turn their eye to the commodity space tend to concentrate their efforts on Gold, Crude Oil and maybe, Copper.  Silver has … Continued

Intermediate

Copper Inventories Worrying Rise

Copper inventories are rising on a global basis Rise in copper prices since 2016 cannot offset transportation costs Chinese activity slowed as “New Year” approached Trump’s infrastructure plan has not catalysed prices Market is at a resistance; longer-term sentiment looks for a gain of 6% What’s going on in the world of copper? There are … Continued

Beginner

€ and $; Tug of War

Euro’s good week fell apart on Friday The Dollar has supported but may struggle to break 1.2132 Eurozone economy improves; ECB could start normalising earlier than expected Treasury yields have broken higher That could unsettle the US economy and Dollar demand There can be no argument that EURUSD had a great run this past week … Continued