Current Market Analysis

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A significant week for central banks with monetary policy decisions on Wednesday from the Fed and on Thursday from the Bank of England (BoE). Macro Data Watch: Standouts this week are EU GDP (YoY, QoQ) on Tuesday, Japan Retail Trade and Sales … Continued

Caterpillar Earnings Caterpillar Inc., a global leader in manufacturing construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial gas turbines, holds significant importance in the financial landscape. Renowned for its iconic yellow machinery, Caterpillar is a key player in the machinery and equipment sector, providing essential tools for construction, resource extraction, and infrastructure development worldwide.  Why are … Continued

What is the European Central Bank? The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central banking authority responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy within the Eurozone. Established in 1998 and headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, the ECB plays a pivotal role in maintaining price stability and supporting sustainable economic growth across the member countries that share … Continued

In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, corporate earnings releases stand as pivotal moments, offering investors and analysts a lens into the financial health and strategic trajectories of major companies. Today, we continue to cover the ongoing US Earnings releases, having given a preview on 23rd January releases.  This article will delve into the anticipated … Continued

An earnings release, a critical financial document, is issued quarterly by publicly traded companies to disclose financial performance. Mandated by regulatory authorities like the SEC, it includes income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. This report communicates a company’s financial health, operational achievements, and future outlook to investors and analysts. Investors analyse it closely … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: Although the Fed have entered their blackout period, a bust week elsewhere for Central Banks, as we get interest rate decisions from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Monday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) on … Continued

TSMC Stocks Surge, with Positive 2024 Outlook due to Continued Apple Collaboration and AI Boom Who are TSMC? Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) stands as a global giant in the semiconductor industry, boasting a market capitalization of 486.28 billion and commanding a pivotal role in the manufacturing landscape. Established in 1987, TSMC has evolved into … Continued

As we approach Friday January 19th the first full week of the US Q4 earnings season comes to a close. Investors are preparing for a flurry of corporate earnings releases that will provide key insights into the financial health of major companies. Among the notable players scheduled to announce their earnings on Friday are; Schlumberger, … Continued

What are US Retail Sales  US Retail Sales data releases are economic indicators that measure the total receipts of retail stores, providing a comprehensive snapshot of consumer spending on goods. These releases encompass a wide range of retail categories, including clothing, electronics, groceries, and other consumer products. The data is collected and reported by the … Continued

Earnings Releases Earnings releases from investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are vital for financial markets, serving as key indicators of the financial industry’s health, risk management, and overall economic conditions. These reports influence market sentiment, guide investment decisions, and provide insights into the banks’ adaptability to changing economic environments. There were multiple … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: Nothing of note from Central banks this coming week, but as ever we will be watching Fed speakers in the final week before they enter their blackout period. Macro Data Watch: The World Economic Forum in Davos runs all week from 15th-19th … Continued

Friday signalled a pivotal juncture with the kick off of the US Earnings Season, as notable companies disclosed their performance metrics. Investors, analysts, and market enthusiasts carefully analysed the data to inform their trading decisions and try to trade the news. This examination zeroes in on the releases from financial corporations that initiated the Q4 … Continued

The stage is set, and the curtains are about to rise on the much-anticipated spectacle in the world of finance – the Q4 2023 US Earnings Season. These unique financial reports reveal valuable data that can send shockwaves through the markets and shape the investment landscape. Investors can trade the news to capitalise on profitable … Continued

What is the US CPI? The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a variety of goods and services. It’s a dynamic basket that includes your morning coffee, the rent for your urban sanctuary, the cost of a new gadget, and even the indulgence of a … Continued

German Industrial Production Worse Than Expected Why is German Industrial Production Data Important? In the financial world, the German industrial production data is more than numbers; it’s the heartbeat of Europe’s economic engine. Here’s why it’s a focal point for trading economic news: Eurozone Foundation: Germany, the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse, lays the foundation. The data … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: No central bank activity of note, but as usual watching for Fed speakers.  Macro Data Watch: US CPI on Thursday is the standout in a relatively light data week.  Date Major Macro Data 01/08/2024 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY & MoM) and Consumer … Continued

This year promises to be one of the most interesting years economically, politically, and market-wise in history. We have two significant global conflicts/wars ongoing, just as President Xi of China is reiterating his promise to annex Taiwan, and Kim Jong Un of North Korea threatens to wipe the US off the map. Meanwhile, we have … Continued

The US Employment Report and Why it Matters When looking at financial markets, few indicators carry the weight and influence of the US Employment Report. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this comprehensive report provides a snapshot of the nation’s employment landscape, offering crucial insights into the health and direction of the economy. … Continued

Fed Minutes Recap: Uncertainty and Soft Landing Caution The recently released Fed minutes from the Dec. 12-13 meeting reveal a nuanced landscape of uncertainty among policymakers. Some express concerns about prolonged high rates, fearing a sudden job market downturn, while others advocate for a steady target rate. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, set to join … Continued

What Are The Fed Minutes? The Federal Reserve, often just called “the Fed,” is the gatekeeper of the U.S. economy. They act as the controlling force, pulling levers to control interest rates and monetary policy. Now, the Fed doesn’t operate in complete secrecy; it spills the beans through what we call “Fed Minutes.” Fed Minutes … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week  ​Central Bank Watch: A quieter week for Central Banks, we get the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy decision, statement and conference on Tuesday, then the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Interest Rate Decision Wednesday. Macro Data … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: Four major central banks in play this week, with the main focus on the Fed decision Wednesday, then we get decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) all on Thursday. Macro … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 12/04/2023 Nothing of note 12/05/2023 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision; global S&P Global Services and Composite PMI, US ISM Services PMI 12/06/2023 Australian GDP; EU Retail Sales; BoC Interest Rate Decision and Statement; US ADP Employment Change 12/07/2023 China Trade Balance; … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/27/2023 Nothing of note 11/28/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision, statement and press conference 11/29/2023 EU Consumer Confidence; German CPI; US GDP and PCE (QoQ) 11/30/2023 Chinese PMI; German Retail Sales; German Unemployment; EU CPI; US PCE (MoM and YoY); Canadian GDP; … Continued

US and UK inflation beat expectations => Risk On extends Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Major Macro Data 11/20/2023 PBoC Interest Rate decision 11/21/2023 RBA Meeting Minutes; Canada CPI; US FOMC Meeting Minutes 11/22/2023 US Durable Goods; Michigan Consumer Sentiment 11/23/2023 US Thanksgiving holiday; global Flash PMI from S&P … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A very quiet week for CB with nothing of note apart from the US Fed speakers to stay in focus. Macro Data Watch: An important week for data with CPI data releases from the US (Tuesday), UK (Wednesday) and the EU (Friday), … Continued

So far this year, companies have planned 604,514 job cuts, a 198% increase from the 209,495 cuts announced through September 2022. It is the highest January-September total since 2020 when 2,082,262 cuts were recorded. Apart from that COVID year it is the highest January to September total since 2009. The real story behind the labor … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: US Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so the time difference between the US and the rest of the planet is back to normal in most cases  Central Bank Watch: A relatively quiet week for CBs, we get Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting … Continued

It’s possible to think that corporate ESG – environmental, social and governance – investing is a thoroughly good idea. Which is how fashionable society seems to see it right now. It’s also possible to think that corporate ESG is merely a passing fad and an expression of the agency problem – precisely because fashionable society … Continued

The Markets in Crypto Assets is the EU’s regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Through it, the European Union aims to centralize regulations governing the issuance and sale of digital assets, including bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies. In addition to replacing a patchwork of national crypto regulations, MiCA will also clarify the playing field … Continued

CAB Payments was an IPO on the London market back only this summer. It’s also imploded already.  Which is pretty good and matches the very worst performances from some of the Nasdaq despac operations. And IPO is supposed to be very much more verified than a Spac so this isn’t a grand advertisement for participating … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week General: UK and EU Daylight Saving Time ended at the weekend, so for this week there is only a 4-hour time difference between London and New York. Daylight Saving Time ends in the US next weekend, 4/5 November. Central Bank Watch: The Bank of Japan … Continued

It is indeed true that Gina Rinehart has built a 20% position in Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) and she’s long been known as a very canny strategic player in the metals business. But that’s not to say that she – or anyone else – is always right in this space. It’s equally possible to believe … Continued

The price of SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG) dropped 27% in one day last week. That of Enphase (NASDAQ: ENPH) followed within minutes by falling 15%. The two companies are not directly related, they’re not – at least not particularly – supplier and customer, or partners. They are in the same sector though. Which is the thing … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the November 1st interest rate decision. We get the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions, statements and press conferences on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.  Macroeconomic data Watch: … Continued

Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) just stopped a set of tests for semaglutide, their wonder drug. The share prices of the kidney dialysis companies all dropped 20% within hours. The big question is whether this is the right reaction, too much or too little? It’s entirely possible to argue any of those three cases but the … Continued

The Securities and Exchange Commission over in the US has decided that short selling is one of these nefarious attacks upon the integrity of the markets. At least that’s the usual Democratic Party response to the very idea of short selling. Which is, as we all know, selling something now in the hope of being … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, though we do get Fed speakers through the week, which is the last week before the Fed speaker blackout period ahead of the early November FOMC Meeting. We get Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes … Continued

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of … Continued

It’s a standard outcome of the standard investing theories that diversification is good. On the fairly obvious grounds that spreading your risks is a good thing to be doing. Yes, yes, this idea really is the killer and yet there’s always that possibility that something will come up to kill it. So, not all eggs … Continued

In the wake of Hamas attacks, the US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia now hangs by a thread. What’s going on? In March 2020, when the covid-19 pandemic sent the UK into lockdown, half the country stopped work overnight. Not financial analysts though — as the global stock market lost a third of its … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week A quiet start to the week, with the US Columbus Day holiday on Monday, US cash bond markets are closed, plus it is Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, with the main focus on the release of the … Continued

Yes. Well, OK, we might need a little more explanation than that. Environmental, social and governance investing, ESG, is absolutely, wholly, worth it in one sense, the moral one. As a way to make money well, not so much. Which means that if you’re looking to invest while keeping your soul pure then ESG might … Continued

Pilbara Minerals is great actually, it’s the result of one of the blindingly best mining deals in recent years. Once there was a lithium miner called Altura, financed in the last lithium mining boom of 2013/4. Which found lithium, developed the mine and was doing great right up to the day it went bust. The … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 10/02/2023 Global Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Fed’s Powell speaks; EU Unemployment 10/03/2023 RBA interest rate decision and statement 10/04/2023 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement; Global Services and Composite PMI from S&P Global; EU Retail Sales; … Continued

It’s possible to think that the Spac boom is near its end. We can approach this through theory, we can approach it through cynical realism, we can approach it through recent results. This isn’t to say that no Spac (or “despac”) deal is ever going to work but perhaps it’s time to admit that the … Continued

The ways in which values change as macroeconomic conditions change can be complex and not even obvious. One recent one, over the past couple of years, makes older British companies more valuable relative to newer ones. Now, of course, this doesn’t mean that all older companies are now worth more than all new ones. Rather, … Continued

FTSE-only ISA allowances could boost the AIM market sharply; scrapping Inheritance Tax could have the opposite effect. Read why below. Cast your mind back to November 2022 — centuries in investing, and yet less than a year ago. After the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget adventure, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is telling the nation that even though we are … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/25/2023 German IFO Survey 09/26/2023 US Consumer Confidence 09/27/2023 Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes; Australian CPI; US Durable Goods Orders 09/28/2023 German CPI; US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) QoQ; Fed’s Powell speaks 09/29/2023 UK GDP; German Retail Sales and … Continued

There is much excitement in the cannabis industry as the Federales start to talk about legalisation. Or changing the legal description and restrictions at least. Or something in the run up to an election perhaps. This might not be as wondrous as many a share price seems to assume. The particular and specific is that … Continued

Investing in development pharmaceutical companies is one of those high risk rollercoasters that can be terribly exciting – and, if done right, profitable. But to be profitable it’s essential to understand the structure of how the business works. Precisely because it’s a rollercoaster some managements can be a little more aggressive, to be mild about … Continued

The US recession is merely delayed, not canceled. The soft-landing narrative is a myth. The government’s fiscal stimulus in 2023 has temporarily lifted the GDP growth rate. However, fiscal stimulus is not a reliable source of economic growth. It undermines productivity in the long term. It also creates problems such as higher taxes, higher interest … Continued

The ghastly problem with mantras about the economy, rules we think are certain, is that they only apply sometimes. A useful macroeconomic trade is to play the FTSE100 to GBP, or pound sterling rate. This does only work one way though – FTSE rising does not change the value of the pound. But the GBP … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/11/2023 Nothing of note 09/12/2023 UK Employment report; German ZEW Survey 09/13/2023 UK GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production; US CPI 09/14/2023 Australian Employment report; ECB interest rate decision and press conference; US PPI and Retail Sales 09/15/2023 Chinese Industrial Production and … Continued

The idea that a start up Vietnamese EV maker is worth more than Boeing does tell us that VinFast (NASDAQ: VFS) is over-valued. Well, either that or that Boeing is under-valued of course. But that VinFast has at times been worth more than Ford, GM, Stellantis, at times even worth more than two of the … Continued

Increasing Sino-US tensions, emergency fiscal measures, and a collapsing real estate sector all signpost a near-term serious economic shock. While economists have been warning that China faces imminent economic collapse since the start of the economic miracle, the warning signs coming out of the Communist country’s heavily massaged figures are blaring red. Of course, this … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 09/04/2023 US Labor Day public holiday 09/05/2023 Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, Final Services PMIs for Eurozone & UK, US Factory Orders 09/06/2023 Australian GDP, Bank of Canada monetary policy; ISM Services PMI, Fed’s Beige Book 09/07/2023 China’s Trade Balance; … Continued

Tingo (NASDAQ: TIO) is a company operating in the agricultural and fintech space in Nigeria and other parts of West Africa. Tingo is also the latest target of Hindenburg who insist the entire set up is a scam from start to finish. Well, that certainly plays into all our prejudices about Nigerian 419 scams and … Continued

There’s a revolution a’comin’ in the American insulin market – to the point we need a man on a horse to ride about shouting that “The Biosimilars are Comin’!”. Well, OK, perhaps not quite that inventive but the idea still stands. There’s a radical change about to happen in that market. And it’s not just … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 08/28/2023 n/a 08/29/2023 US Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Jobs Openings 08/30/2023 Australian CPI inflation; German prelim CPI; ADP Employment Change, US Prelim GDP, Pending Home Sales 08/31/2023 China Official PMIs; Eurozone Flash HICP inflation and Unemployment, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts; US … Continued

The Fed’s minutes for their latest meeting held in July showed the committee’s interest in raising interest rates further due to upside risks to inflation that is already well above their target level. The Fed is also perpetually worried about growth, which of course has nothing to do with inflation. After all, people working and … Continued

Yellow Corporation (NYSE: YELL) and now, given the Chapter 11 (OTCPK: YELLQ), has managed to prove an interesting contention. Does a union contract – which gets the workforce partnered up with the management – add or subtract value from the company? From this example it would seem that the union is very definitely a negative. … Continued

One of the big stories of 2023 has been the impressive rally of the NASDAQ and the huge outperformance of Big Tech. The main driver of this has been US chipmaker, Nvidia. The semiconductor company that provides the processors crucial for Artificial Intelligence applications such as ChatGPT, has been at the forefront of the tech … Continued

A placing RNS is the constant fear of AIM investors, while spectacular gains are also never far from their minds. As a high risk, high reward investor, many of my favourite stocks can be found on the Financial Times Stock Exchange Alternative Investment Market — or FTSE AIM as the snazzy acronym goes. I also … Continued

There has been a decisive recovery in oil futures since late June. A recovery that threatened to break decisively clear of key resistance and change the medium to longer-term outlook. However, the mood has shifted in the past couple of weeks, with futures going into retreat. This has come as there has been a shift … Continued

On 22nd September 2022, with the USD/JPY pair having risen above 145, the Bank of Japan felt that enough was enough. The Japanese yen had weakened to such an extent that the BoJ felt compelled to intervene in the forex markets (by selling USD) for the first time in 24 years. Over the next few … Continued

True, we’ve got to use a colloquial, not legal, sense of the word “steal” here. But the shareholders of Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) can indeed now claim that a court has said that their companies, their shares, were stolen from them. Just to make sure here, we are using that … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Key this week Date Key Macroeconomic Events 08/21/2023 n/a 08/22/2023 Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing 08/23/2023 Flash PMIs from Australia, Japan, Eurozone, UK and the US; Eurozone Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales 08/24/2023 ECB minutes; US Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium … Continued

There has been a shift in sentiment in recent weeks. After having rallied consistently for over four months, US index futures have turned lower. Previously, unwinding moves were seen as a chance to buy. However, we are increasingly now seeing rallies used as an opportunity to sell. The corrective forces are mounting, both fundamentally and … Continued

Techtronic Industries (HKG: 0669) (OTCQX: TTNDF) got accused, a few months back, of fraud. Of course, it was a short seller that made the accusation, and it was one of those slightly complicated to follow things. It was also one of those things where there was no immediate disaster likely for the company. It could … Continued

Perception can be crucial to the performance of an asset. Traders have been focused on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having finished its hiking cycle. With other major central banks either still tightening, or potentially still tightening, the NZD has been mired in underperformance against major currencies. However, could this now be about … Continued

The Bank of England (BoE) is squarely focused on still fighting the high levels of inflation that the UK is suffering from. One of the key drivers of inflation is the cost-push forces of wages. The latest data on the UK labour market and wage growth will therefore be causing some furrowed brows down the … Continued

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial market developments Index futures are breaking, or are threatening to break below key support areas. The e-mini NASDAQ 100 futures have broken below the higher low at 15063, whilst the e-mini S&P 500 futures are threatening the support at 4411. If these breaks are confirmed, they come as outlook-changing moves. … Continued