USDA reports may reveal wheat planting is somewhat low this season A recovery in prices looks likely given positive technicals The quality of Russian product is declining Look for the bullish sentiment to prevail and will take prices higher If the whispers on the street are to be believed, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture … Continued
Fundamental and Macroeconomic Analysis
Fundamental Analysis is the assessment of a business or a whole economy based on data pertaining to that business or economy. For an individual company this would include an analysis of the balance sheet, liabilities, assets, revenues, earnings, profits etc.
For a country’s economy, fundamental (or macroeconomic) analysis would look at and analyse many factors including; GDP, Employment, Inflation, interest rates, production as well as many other data points.
Traders can then use their analysis to derive a valuation about the true fundamental value for a security, asset, commodity or FX rate. The fundamental (or macroeconomic) analyst or trader can then compare this valuation with the current price (of the security, asset, commodity or FX rate) and then make a decision of whether it is overvalued or undervalued, then decide whether to sell or buy.
In this section we will look at fundamental and macroeconomic analysis in more detail. Furthermore, we will deliver articles aimed at developing the readers understanding and use of this this approach. Read more forex trading tips.
WTI is not at the bottom of its decline Any recovery in prices needs the Russians and Saudi’s to drive further output restrictions OPEC meets on December 6th, but all members are hurting Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower The market for crude oil has not yet found a bottom and has exceeded … Continued
We had a positive start to the trading week in regards to equities. Major indices were boosted from the positive EU Economic Summit with firm gains on return from the Thanksgiving weekend and with a boost for retailers from Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. Brexit was on the agenda at the beginning of the … Continued
U.S. sees first drawdown of natural gas as winter begins Now time to focus on the weather patterns hitting North America The technical sentiment for NGF9 is a soft opening; look to buy the opening New bullish sentiment will ride on a snowy surge as a second storm front chills America The U.S. Energy Information … Continued
Over the weekend PM May struck a defiant tone with defending her Brexit deal while a growing threat of a leadership challenge looms. She stated there has not yet been enough letters to trigger a no confidence vote. So far, 42 Tory MPs have provided their letters for a no confidence vote which is 6 … Continued
Selling of the U.S. Dollar Index on Friday may persist through Monday As the week pushes on, this will yield to new buying momentum The technical sentiment for the Dollar Index is strong up to the next FOMC New bullish sentiment will prevail and will take prices higher The investor base certainly lost no time … Continued
The Gold-Silver ratio meanders slowly in channels As the major players in precious metals increase the bullish position on both The technical sentiment for both is almost identical Look for the reversal of silver shorts to be the more significant play There is a ratio in financial markets that is sometime overlooked in the western … Continued
Iran appears to be getting off a U.S. sanctions hook As the Russians, Saudi’s and U.S. ramp up oil production, the market has excess supply The technical sentiment for oil has spun around since my last note on WTI Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower The market for crude oil has enjoyed a … Continued
Any hint of good news re Brexit helps the Euro in the short-term If Theresa May compromises with the EU there will be pressure on her at home There is too much hostility to the leading array of contenders…she is safe for now Beyond Brexit, it will be Italy that drags the Euro down The … Continued
Asian markets were volatile overnight as Chinese stocks fall but recovered and closed the session 2% higher. Wall Street led further declines during the session as concerns come from the hawkishness of fed members with the hiking of US interest rates. Disputes with US – China trade, Saudi foul play and Italy’s budget deficit. This … Continued
Iran will soon face more U.S. sanctions President Trump wants to force Iran to renegotiate its nuclear deal The technical sentiment for oil is as good as the week wears on There is a good chance of new prices hitting the $90 level…and beyond In the week ahead oil traders will stay firmly focused … Continued
Silver started Friday to the downside, this was quickly reversed It rose 2.98% in the session, the best one day move in Q3 this year The technical sentiment is as good as it could be, until the end of the week There is renewed interest in the metal; a push to $15.72 is likely … Continued
When is seemed that the UK might get a Brexit breakthrough Cable hit 1.3300 That was rapidly reversed as the EU27 rejected Chequers outright The technical sentiment is poor across all time measures The opposition are not offering any credible alternative solution…so sell Sterling Friday was a chance for the foreign exchange markets to … Continued
Approximately 50% of U.S. soybeans were shipped to China in 2016 Trumps tariffs led to a retaliatory 25% levy being slapped on the U.S. crop The technical sentiment is as poor as it could be There is renewed whispers of further trade talks, so maybe a contrarian trade is in order In 2016 the leading … Continued
Dollar was moved by the solid August jobs report Dollar driven by expectation of Fed action in September and December Trumps tariff tirade is still a cause for concern The short-term outlook for the Dollar Index to rally and test old resistance points The U.S. Dollar traded higher against other currencies on Friday, as better-than-expected … Continued
Crude oil markets were unable to hold the high ground this week It has become bewitched by Dollar strength and U.S. – Canada trade talks Given 99% of Canada’s oil exports go to the U.S. … …The short-term outlook for oil is positive for a new test of $72/Barrel WTI crude oil broke through the … Continued
Australia’s new PM is Scott Morrison as moderate Malcolm Turnbull is forced out The pair is pulled by commodity prices and Chinese trade Market trend is currently to head lower This can change on a break above 0.7400 The Politics Australia has a new Prime Minister (PM) after Scott Morrison mounted a late challenge during … Continued