Gold offers a safe haven as the threat of a trade war leave markets in a malaise. Gold prices jumped in the past week with the precious metal up nearly 2.7% to trade at $1347.20/Troy Oz at the New York close on Friday. The move of +$19.80 or +1.49% came amid continued weakness in broader … Continued
Fundamental and Macroeconomic Analysis
Fundamental Analysis is the assessment of a business or a whole economy based on data pertaining to that business or economy. For an individual company this would include an analysis of the balance sheet, liabilities, assets, revenues, earnings, profits etc.
For a country’s economy, fundamental (or macroeconomic) analysis would look at and analyse many factors including; GDP, Employment, Inflation, interest rates, production as well as many other data points.
Traders can then use their analysis to derive a valuation about the true fundamental value for a security, asset, commodity or FX rate. The fundamental (or macroeconomic) analyst or trader can then compare this valuation with the current price (of the security, asset, commodity or FX rate) and then make a decision of whether it is overvalued or undervalued, then decide whether to sell or buy.
In this section we will look at fundamental and macroeconomic analysis in more detail. Furthermore, we will deliver articles aimed at developing the readers understanding and use of this this approach. Read more forex trading tips.
Bitcoin Dollar slips on South Korean raids Spot has crossed under the 200-day moving average Now look for the 50-day moving average to do the same The process of mining in New York state just became more expensive Brace yourself for more excessive downside movement Bitcoin has fallen dramatically against the U.S. Dollar so … Continued
The Dollar slips on soft wages and the Trump tariff threat Average hourly earnings rose a paltry 0.1% The chance of four rate changes this year just receded U.S. employment data released on Friday showed a particularly strong February, with the Non-Farm Payroll coming in at 313K. This was a 20-month high that was over … Continued
Silver is increasingly attractive as the Dollar slips on the Trump tariff threat The 200-day moving average is proving supportive Prices could rally to $19.45/Troy Oz, a gain of 17.6% More most investors that turn their eye to the commodity space tend to concentrate their efforts on Gold, Crude Oil and maybe, Copper. Silver has … Continued
Copper inventories are rising on a global basis Rise in copper prices since 2016 cannot offset transportation costs Chinese activity slowed as “New Year” approached Trump’s infrastructure plan has not catalysed prices Market is at a resistance; longer-term sentiment looks for a gain of 6% What’s going on in the world of copper? There are … Continued
Euro’s good week fell apart on Friday The Dollar has supported but may struggle to break 1.2132 Eurozone economy improves; ECB could start normalising earlier than expected Treasury yields have broken higher That could unsettle the US economy and Dollar demand There can be no argument that EURUSD had a great run this past week … Continued
Trumps plans are adding %1.5 Trillion to America’s debt burden This is the cost of his tax cut programme and new infrastructure investment Treasury yields have broken higher after months of decline Is the given that foreign accounts will keep on buying a certainty? There used to be an infallible rule of western politics. Parties … Continued
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies suffered a woeful week The potential for much tighter regulation grows each day The diehard believers think this is the right time to buy Is the risk that it is all a Ponzi Pyramid worth it…probably not Bitcoin has been under pressure in the past week like never before. Just as … Continued
Global growth is expected to reach 3% in 2018 The potential for much faster growth is limited This time there is less reliance on one growth engine Do not overlook potential flat-spots in America, China and Europe It is now a decade since the world descended into a devastating economic crisis. A key signal of … Continued
Dollar found few friends in the ring last week The fear of a shutdown in the Federal Government kept many away German party leaders want a “Grand Coalition”, but their parties must approve it On Thursday, Draghi has to sweet talk the Euro down from lofty heights In the past week, many major currencies rose to … Continued
Gold has posted another good week of price gains The upside keeps coming despite the prospect of Fed Funds rate rises The withdrawal of monetary stimulus has a diminishing effect The start of the week may see selling, but prices will soon bounce back Gold prices posted a four-month high on Friday to record … Continued
High expectations of a good equity market in 2018 What will be the appropriate mix of equity exposure? Spotlight Indices has embraced a new psychology Look for ongoing “cyclical” and “sensitive” exposure At moments of economic uncertainty, it is only natural that questions arise pertaining as to the best approach toward making investments in the … Continued
Equities have made good gains since Donald Trump was inaugurated The gains are overshadowed by the returns under Obama and H.W. Bush Their rally is mostly down to coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus It is disingenuous for the 45th President to seek all the glory We are almost through a full calendar year of Donald … Continued
WTI has slipped into a corrective channel, cannot hold above $58/barrel The action by OPEC and Non-OPEC producers just encourages shale output The market has edged toward to balance, but demand will fall again next year Without a quick break over $62, then a retreat toward $54 is on the cards This week I want … Continued
Bitcoin futures launch creates excitement as they surge past $18,000 There are many powerful voices for and against the concept It marks the most dramatic financial leap into the dark since the 2008 crisis Questions are being raised if the contract will soar high, or crash and burn? Bitcoin, the best known of all the … Continued
Technically: After remaining it its 500 pip range for most of the year, is it time for the pair to move up and break above 114.00? Additional to the range, we have also seen a downwards channel from late 2016 to September 2017. The price broke above this channel in September and has pulled back … Continued
The US Senate passed a sweeping tax cuts bill This is President Trump’s first significant legislative victory It marks the biggest tax overhaul since the 1980’s Democrats complained it only benefits the wealthy and big business Weak week, in White House The week just passed was looking bad for Donald Trump’s administration. A genuine “Black … Continued
This past week, crude oil speculation reached a new high for the year OPEC seeks to push prices higher by restricting output… …this just encourages more shale oil production I am looking for prices to decline in Q1 2018 The oil market has enjoyed a good run of late. It has been driven higher by … Continued
This week, the Chancellor has to revive the Conservative Party He is so boxed in with limited money to spend and pressure all around The young need help and he needs to address housing and public sector pay He will be walking a tight line as he delivers his budget One could argue that the … Continued
There is too much volatility in cryptocurrencies They fail the test of being “money” as there is no source of final accountability Delaying SegWitz2X is not progressive It is correct to call Bitcoin a commodity A lack of volatility can destroy a market. If an asset just goes up, or just goes down, there is … Continued