- A further “risk off” move across global equity markets on Tuesday (as seen from mid-December), and as we highlighted in yesterday’s report here, driven by US equity averages breaking through Q4 lows and now in the case of the S&P 500 to prod the 2018 low.
- Additionally, European equity averages have pushed down close to recent Q4 and 2018 lows, with the threat for more negative activity here too.
- The macroeconomic focus today is on the FOMC rate decision, where a rate hike is expected, but the extent (or not) to which the Fed shifts to more dovish will be key for equity markets into year-end (and likely January 2019).
- Here we focus on the UK and German equity benchmarks, the FTSE 100 and DAX.
FTSE 100 bear bias intact
A low-level consolidation Tuesday (of Monday’s plunge through 6789.5/82.0, 6743. and 6713.5 supports), then a late probe below 6693.5 support, further rejecting the recent recovery efforts and sustaining bear pressures from the earlier December plunge (below key 6891.5 support and the 6824 cycle low), to keep the bias to the downside Wednesday.
The plunge through 6891.5 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- We see a downside bias for 6684.5; break here aims for 6671.0 and 6660.0, then 6633.0.
- But above 6765.0 opens risk up to 6791.5, maybe 6856.5, even 6869.5.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 6660.0.
- Lower targets would be 6599.5 and towards 6389.5.
- What Changes This? Above 6979.5 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 7148.5 is needed for a bull theme.
4 Hour Chart
DAX downside threats intact
A reluctant rebound and then setback Tuesday from below 10917.5 resistance, to sustain negative forces from Monday’s selloff through 10730/724.5 and 10678.5 supports, to ease upside forces from last week’s recovery effort and sustain bear forces from the prior December plunge (below key 11002 support), keeping the bias to the downside Wednesday.
The early December plunge below 11002 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- We see a downside bias for 10669.5; break here aims for 10581.5, 10555 and maybe towards 10500.
- But above 10844 targets 10917.5 and opens risk up towards 10981.5/11000.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 10406.5 and 10000/994.5.
- What Changes This? Above 11263 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 11566.5 is needed for a bull theme.
4 Hour Chart