- A weaker US Dollar still the dominant Forex markets theme with the ongoing “risk on” environment.
- “Risk on” is being driven by the start of the US Presidency transition of power, the appointment of Janet Yellen as US Treasury Secretary, plus from the three vaccine announcements in November.
- The Euro has pushed above 1.1900 and resumed the positive tone seen earlier November, aiming EURUSD into month-end and December
- The Pound continues to strengthen with rumoured progress at the EU-UK trade talks, with GBPUSD pointing higher in the short- and intermediate-term.
EURUSD day trade outlook: Firm rebound, upside threats
A resilient consolidation tone and firm rebound on Tuesday to prod higher above Monday’s peak at 1.1906, having held above our 1.1799/97/93 support, to sustain upside pressures from the whole November rally from 1.1601, to keep risks higher for Wednesday.
Day trade setup
· We see an upside bias for 1.1920; a break here aims for 1.1966, maybe the cycle high at 2011.
· But below 1.1834 aims for 1.1799/97/93, which we would look to try to hold. Below opens risk down to 1.1744.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above key 1.1881 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.2011, 1.2140 and 1.2556.
- What changes this? Below 1.1744 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.
8 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Bull threat still to key 1.3483/1.3515 targets
A Monday-Tuesday rally above 1.3312/13 and 1.3359 resistances to stall just below our 1.3403 level, at 1.3398, and despite a setback, whilst above 1.3263/49 to retain bull forces from the mid-November rally up to 1.3313, to 1.3312, plus from the earlier November rally above the key peaks at 1.3177 (to set an intermediate-term bull trend), to keep risks higher for Wednesday.
Day trade setup
· We see an upside bias for 1.3366 and 1.3398/1.3403; a break here aims for 1.3444, maybe the key cycle high at 1.3483, even 1.3500/15.
· But below 1.3263/49 aims for 1.3195/93 and possibly opens risk down towards 1.3150.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above 1.3177 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.3483/1.3515 and maybe 1.3711.
- What changes this? Below 1.3106/1.3092 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.
8 Hour GBPUSD Chart