Euro in focus into key European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting

Intermediate
  • All eyes will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting today, which much anticipation around a more dovish shift.
  • US Dollar weakness has seen EURUSD rebound in September with a resumption of a global “risk on” theme, but the EURUSD Forex rate losses over the past 24 hours highlight caution into the meeting.

EURUSD: Risks flip lower

A selloff Wednesday through the 1.1016/06 support area to reject immediate upside forces from the strong rally last week above 1.1050 resistance, flipping the bias lower for Thursday.

The late August selloff through 1.1025 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.0983 and 1.0975; break here aims for 130924 and maybe 1.0901/1.0898.
  • But above 1.1050 opens risk up to 1.1068, 1.1085 and 1.1094.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.0839 and 1.0578.

  • What Changes This? Above 1.1165 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above 1.1250 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

EURUSD Chart

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