EURUSD remains vulnerable into ECB meeting and Fed Minutes

Intermediate
  • The Euro remains somewhat vulnerable sustaining losses versus many major currencies through March, most notably the US Dollar, but including the Canadian and Australian Dollars and to a lesser extent the Pound.
  • This has primary reflected a still very dovish European Central Bank (ECB), and a deterioration in European economic data, mostly in Germany in the past month.
  • Furthermore, the US Dollar has displayed a solid tone, strengthening against most major currencies throughout March, with global economic slowdown concerns seeing the US currency bought as a safe haven (despite a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve).
  • Today, Wednesday 10th April, the Forex market sees both an ECB Meeting and the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which could combine to see a significant move in EUR USD, with the technical risks skewed towards the downside.

EUR USD risks stay lower

A prod to the upside Tuesday, after Monday’s better rebound effort than we had expected through our 1.1255/61 resistance area but fading back from just below the 1.1286/95 resistance zone (from 1.1284), to just keep risks lower for Wednesday.

We see a broader, intermediate-term range as 1.1509 to 1.1175, BUT with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bearish shift through 1.1175.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1239 and 1.1205; break here aims for key 1.1175.
  • But above 1.1284/95 aims for 1.1332/41, then maybe towards 1.1390.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1509 to 1.1175.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1509 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1570/1.1621, 1.1815/52 and 1.1996/1.2000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1175 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

4 Hour EUR USD Chart

EUR USD

Comments on this analysis


Latest News

Gold Chart
Golden Breakout: Potential for 1,486 for spot gold

We upgrade our neutral conviction on GOLD, mentioned in our prior post, to buy. Yesterday saw a solid 1.3% rise in XAUUSD on the back of a weaker USD, Middle East tensions and Ray Dalio comments. The precious metal broke above key 1,438.63 resistance and a consolidation pattern. A close near the top reinforces bull … Continued

GBPUSD Daily Chart
Elliott wave Analysis: GBPUSD On A Bearish Ride

Hello fellow traders! GBPUSD is looking bearish and can now be unfolding final stages of a sub-wave 3) of blue wave 1. We are observing minor leg 5 of 3) in progress, with possible support, and a turn into a corrective wave 4) around the Fibonacci ratio of 261.8 (1.235/1.223 region). GBPUSD, Daily On the … Continued

Forex News Category
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like ’95 or ‘07?

You should completely understand that the market is dangerously overvalued and that global economic growth has slowed to a crawl along with S&P 500 earnings. However, you must also be wondering when the massive overhang of unprecedented debt levels, artificial market manipulations, and the anemic economy will finally shock Wall Street to a brutal reality. … Continued

Gold Futures
Gold Getting a Boost as Fed Expresses Concern

As the Fed indicate rate cuts are coming gold will keep rising over the summer  There is a disconnect between asset price inflation and the real economy  Earnings will be flat or disappointing and too much debt has little or negative yield  I last looked at Gold on May 26, 2019 when I called for … Continued


Forex Brokers in your location