- The Euro remains somewhat vulnerable sustaining losses versus many major currencies through March, most notably the US Dollar, but including the Canadian and Australian Dollars and to a lesser extent the Pound.
- This has primary reflected a still very dovish European Central Bank (ECB), and a deterioration in European economic data, mostly in Germany in the past month.
- Furthermore, the US Dollar has displayed a solid tone, strengthening against most major currencies throughout March, with global economic slowdown concerns seeing the US currency bought as a safe haven (despite a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve).
- Today, Wednesday 10th April, the Forex market sees both an ECB Meeting and the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which could combine to see a significant move in EUR USD, with the technical risks skewed towards the downside.
EUR USD risks stay lower
A prod to the upside Tuesday, after Monday’s better rebound effort than we had expected through our 1.1255/61 resistance area but fading back from just below the 1.1286/95 resistance zone (from 1.1284), to just keep risks lower for Wednesday.
We see a broader, intermediate-term range as 1.1509 to 1.1175, BUT with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bearish shift through 1.1175.
- We see a downside bias for 1.1239 and 1.1205; break here aims for key 1.1175.
- But above 1.1284/95 aims for 1.1332/41, then maybe towards 1.1390.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1509 to 1.1175.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1509 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1570/1.1621, 1.1815/52 and 1.1996/1.2000.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1175 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.
4 Hour EUR USD Chart