Macrowatch – US-China optimism aims stocks higher, further gains forecast

Intermediate
  • US President Trump spoke on trade at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday with a positive view on a China trade deal, but also with threats of further tariffs if a deal was not made.
Trump economic club NY
  • Then Thursday evening saw Larry Kudlow (economic advisor at the White House) signal a deal with China was close.
Larry Kudlow
  • US share indices (the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500), went on to hit all-time highs Friday.
  • Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman) gave an upbeat account on the US economic outlook when testifying to Congress through the middle of the week but didn’t signal the path for interest rates into 2020.
  • In the UK, the Brexit Party will not stand in any of the constituencies won by the Tories in 2017 and are not contesting 38 other marginal seats that the Conservatives could win.
  • The chances of a majority Conservative government have increased, echoed by opinion polls that signal a 10-13 point lead for the Conservatives over Labour.
  • This has seen a stronger GBP, with the Pound at its strongest level versus the Euro for six months.
  • The FTSE 100 has underperformed European/ US stock indices given the negative repercussion for the UK benchmark average from Sterling strength.
  • Hong Kong has seen more violent demonstrations and responses from the authorities, which has had some only minimal negative impact on Asian (and global) stock markets.
Hong Kong protests
  • The impeachment enquiry into President Trump has moved into the public arena, but without noteworthy bearing on financial markets. But we still anticipate this impacting later in 2019 and into 2020.

Key this week

  • US-China trade talks
  • UK election campaign and opinion polls
  • Tensions in Hong Kong
  • US impeachment hearings.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes Tuesday, People’s Bank of China (PBoC) interest rate decision and the FOMC Meeting Minutes both on Wednesday.
  • Data is light with Friday’s Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI), German GDP and global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) the main foci.
Date Key Macroeconomic Events
18/11/19 Nothing noteworthy
19/11/19 Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
20/11/19 PBoC interest rate decision; Canadian CPI; FOMC Meeting Minutes
21/11/19 Nothing noteworthy
22/11/19 Japanese CPI; German GDP; global PMI data

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Latest Related News

Topping threat for the FTSE 100 (FTSE forecast)

A fading rebound for many global stock averages over the past 24 hours, after the late June-early July strong moves higher, for a deeper corrective setback threat into today.The more negative tone has been driven by an absence of economic data, switching the focus back to threats from the global increase in new COVID-19 cases (in Melbourne, Australia, but particularly in some southern and western… Continued

Elliott Wave Analysis: EUR/GBP In Bearish Reversal

Hello traders, EURGBP started firmly dropping from the 0.918 level (also level of a Fib. ratio of 61.8), giving us first signs of a possibly completed A-B-C move in a higher degree wave B) correction. We are now observing a minimum three-wave decline in play, so be aware of possible corrections/setbacks within the decline (first one can be seen from the lower corrective channel line).… Continued

Quiet conditions in Forex

Positives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD)Whilst Euro-Pound posts a major negative (EURGBP) Continued

A bigger top still forming for stocks averages – FTSE forecast

An indecisive tone across global stock averages over the past 2-3 weeks.This has been as two competing influences have impacted markets; the belief in a strong re-opening of the global economy and ensuing demand for riskier assets versus the rise in new COVID-19 cases (particularly in the southern US states).Here we look at the UK benchmark share index future, our FTSE 100 forecast for today… Continued

EURGBP Midpoint Breakthrough Threatens Mar-Apr Downtrend Structure

Regional cross EUR/GBP has widened its bullish management, infringing a bear Cloud Top and the Mar-Apr correction midpoint at 0.9085, to shift the attention to the vital 61.8% fib @ 0.9183; So far, mkt has surged 77pips, breaching its 70pip 10-day ATR value which could imply that prices have completed their sharp leg higher today and are due a ‘rest’; studies have taken a more… Continued

Forex Brokers in your location