Macrowatch – US-China optimism aims stocks higher, further gains forecast

Intermediate
  • US President Trump spoke on trade at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday with a positive view on a China trade deal, but also with threats of further tariffs if a deal was not made.
Trump economic club NY
  • Then Thursday evening saw Larry Kudlow (economic advisor at the White House) signal a deal with China was close.
Larry Kudlow
  • US share indices (the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500), went on to hit all-time highs Friday.
  • Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman) gave an upbeat account on the US economic outlook when testifying to Congress through the middle of the week but didn’t signal the path for interest rates into 2020.
  • In the UK, the Brexit Party will not stand in any of the constituencies won by the Tories in 2017 and are not contesting 38 other marginal seats that the Conservatives could win.
  • The chances of a majority Conservative government have increased, echoed by opinion polls that signal a 10-13 point lead for the Conservatives over Labour.
  • This has seen a stronger GBP, with the Pound at its strongest level versus the Euro for six months.
  • The FTSE 100 has underperformed European/ US stock indices given the negative repercussion for the UK benchmark average from Sterling strength.
  • Hong Kong has seen more violent demonstrations and responses from the authorities, which has had some only minimal negative impact on Asian (and global) stock markets.
Hong Kong protests
  • The impeachment enquiry into President Trump has moved into the public arena, but without noteworthy bearing on financial markets. But we still anticipate this impacting later in 2019 and into 2020.

Key this week

  • US-China trade talks
  • UK election campaign and opinion polls
  • Tensions in Hong Kong
  • US impeachment hearings.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes Tuesday, People’s Bank of China (PBoC) interest rate decision and the FOMC Meeting Minutes both on Wednesday.
  • Data is light with Friday’s Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI), German GDP and global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) the main foci.
Date Key Macroeconomic Events
18/11/19 Nothing noteworthy
19/11/19 Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
20/11/19 PBoC interest rate decision; Canadian CPI; FOMC Meeting Minutes
21/11/19 Nothing noteworthy
22/11/19 Japanese CPI; German GDP; global PMI data

Steve Miley

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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