- A spotlight in this report on the NZD cross currency rates, focusing on the New Zealand Dollar against the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar.
- NZDJPY, NZDCHF and NZDCAD all stay bearish on an intermediate-term basis.
NZDJPY sitting at cycle low
Despite a small rebound on Friday after another new cycle low on Thursday, the short-term bear theme remains intact from the negative consolidation in the second half of May after he acceleration lower in early May, to keep risks lower for Monday and into month-end.
- We see a downside bias for 71.50; break here aims for 71.29 and 71.00.
- But above to 71.82 opens risk up to 71.98 and maybe 72.17.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 70.00.
- Lower targets would be 69.27 and 67.01
- What Changes This? Above 72.78 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 73.47 is needed for a bull theme.
Daily NZDJPY Chart
NZDCHF rebound, but bear theme very much intact
A Friday rebound from a new cycle low at .6533 for a bullish outside daily pattern, BUT the very short-term bear view is undamaged whilst below resistance at .6582, to leave the bias back to the downside on Monday and into late May.
- We see a downside bias for .6545; break here aims for .6533 and .6500.
- But above .6582 opens risk up to .6605 and .6620.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6500/ 6496.
- Lower targets would be .6273 and .6000.
- What Changes This? Above .6641 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.
Daily NZDCHF Chart
NZDCAD corrective recovery stalling
A strong recovery effort from the middle of last week from the new cycle low on Wednesday at .8692, but the a somewhat negative, almost Shooting Star candlestick on Friday down from just below .8830 resistance highlights recovery exhaustion and sees the bias set to return for a push lower into Monday and month-end.
- We see a downside bias for .8778; break here aims for .8755 and .8718.
- But above .8825/30 opens risk up to .8853, maybe towards key .8894.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .8691.
- Lower targets would be .8500 and .8172
- What Changes This? Above .8894 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.
Daily NZDCAD Chart