- A more positive tone for the Pound to start this week, for now rejecting the more negative tone we highlighted in our report here last week.
- The broader “risk off” theme has eased as global stock indices have rebounded since Friday which has seen a slight weakening of the US Dollar.
- The Pound also benefited Monday from some positive soundings and hopes regarding the UK trade negations with the EU, which restart this week.
- Below we again look at the technical analysis foe GBPUSD and the near-term upside risks for today and month-end, though for now the bigger picture threat into October stays bearish.
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Threat shifts higher
A strong recovery Monday to overcome resistance at 1.2805 and 1.2867/71, plus reversing above the September down trend line, to for now reject bear forces from latter September sell-off through various supports (after the earlier September plunge through key 1.2981to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bearish), to keep the risk to the downside Tuesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.2929 and 1.2967; a break here aims for key 1.3007 and maybe the 1.3035/56 area.
- But below 1.2822 opens risk down to 1.2762 and possibly 1.2687/75.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early September push below 1.2981 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.2644, 1.2480 and maybe 1.2251.
- What changes this? Above 1.3007 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend to neutral; through 1.3239 to an intermediate-term bull trend.
