Pound strengthens on Brexit deal hopes into first key vote

Intermediate
  • A very strong rally by the Pound on Monday, with rumours and soundings of some breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.
  • Today sees the first vote on Prime Minister May’s likely new Brexit deal and depending on the outcome, potentially further votes over the next two days on a “no deal” Brexit and to extend the Article 50 leaving date.
  • Sterling has rallied strongly across major currencies in FX markets, but here we focus on the GBPUSD Forex rate.

 

GBPUSD risks shift to the topside into first of key Brexit votes

A late session surge Monday through multiple resistances to probe as high as our 1.3286 level (up to 1/3289), after an initial plunge lower to probe below key 1.2967 for an intermediate-term shift to neutral, flipping risks higher into another key Brexit vote Tuesday.

We see an intermediate-term range as 1.3350 to 1.2771.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3249; break here aims for 1.3289 and key 1.3350.
  • But below 1.3184 opens risk down to 1.3123, maybe 1.3066.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2771 to 1.3350.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3350 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3473 and 1.3608.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2771 sees a bear trend to target 1.2668 and 1.2437.

 

4 Hour GBP/USD Chart

gbp/usd chart

 


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