- Global share indices tried to advance further on Tuesday into the end of quarter (end of the Japanese fiscal year) but have been unable to resume the bullish themes seen through latter March, last week.
- The subsequent hesitant setback over the past 24 hours may have reflected recovery fatigue, but also potentially a conclusion to end of month/ quarter, rebalancing flows.
- We see the short-term threat for a roll back still further for today and early April, but also potentially for the bigger picture, intermediate-term bear forces from the first half of March to resume.
- Here we spotlight the future on the US benchmark average, the S&P 500.
S&P 500 Future day trade outlook: Downside risks
A further recovery Tuesday to build on Monday’s intraday rebound, to push Tuesday just above the recovery high at 2634.5 (to 2635.75), to then stall back lower for a weak close and further setback overnight, to flip risks back to lower for Wednesday.
- We see a downside bias for 2517.25/14.25 and 2495.0; a break below aims for 2445.0, 2402.5 and maybe 2386.0.
- But above 2562.25 targets 2591.25 and maybe towards 2635.75 and 2650.0.
S&P 500 Future intermediate-term outlook
The latter February plunge below 3303.5 signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 2000.0 maybe 1802.5.
- What Changes This? Above 2884.75 sees an intermediate-term neutral range and above 3137.0 a bull trend.
Daily S&P 500 Future Chart