Stocks stay very bullish into Thanksgiving – S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast

Intermediate
  • A firm tone seen for the main global stock indices this week, throughout November and also over the past 24 hours.
  • The solid “risk on” theme is still been driven by:
    • The ongoing Biden bounce, reinforced by the start of the transition of power
    • The appointment of Janet Yellen as US Treasury Secretary
    • The announcement of THREE very positive COVID-19 vaccine trial results
    • Lockdowns in Europe starting to work, with the numbers of new COVID-19 cases plateauing an even falling
  • But there is a wariness regarding the ominous rising of US COVID-19 cases, with today’s Thanksgiving holiday a potential massive “super spreader” event.
  • Here we analyse the US and UK benchmark stock average, with our S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecasts.

S&P 500 future day trade outlook: Risks stays up to the record high

A Wednesday dip but holding just above our initial support at  3615/13, to retain upside forces from Tuesday’s strong advance to overcome 3637.0 resistance, plus from the extremely aggressive, earlier November surge to a new all-time high at 3668.0 (through the key 3541.0 level), to leave the threat to the upside into the shortened trading session for Thanksgiving on Thursday. 

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 3643.0 and 3655.0; a break here aims for the record peak at 3668.0 (maybe 3700.0).
  • But below 3615/13 targets 3593.25 and maybe opens risk down to 3570.25, which we would look to try to hold.

S&P 500 future intermediate-term outlook

The early November push above 3541.0 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for extension targets at 3709.75, 3775/76 and 3866.5.
  • What changes this? Below 3456.75 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.

8 Hour S&P 500 Chart

s&p 500 chart

FTSE 100 day trade outlook: Setback after push above key 6451.5 peak

A setback Wednesday after Tuesday’s firm advance to overcome resistances at 6380/81.5 and overnight to a new multi-month recovery and cycle high above 6451.5 to 6472.5, but whilst above 6351.5 we see upside forces intact from the rebound from the 6296.5/95 support area, plus from the firm, mid-November advance above 6378/84 and 6439 resistances, to keep the threat higher for Thursday.

Day trade setup

·      We see an upside bias for 6458/60 and 6472.5; a break here maybe aims for 6483/85.

·      But below 6376.5/74 aims for 6351.5 and possibly opens risk down to 6296.5/95.

FTSE 100 intermediate-term outlook

The early November push above key 6012.5, signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 6871.5, maybe 7000.
  • What changes this? Below 5943-5929.5 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.

Daily FTSE 100 Chart

ftse 100 chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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