An erratic tone into the holiday season for Forex markets with the Fed on hold, the UK election behind us and the US-Sino trade deal done, for now.
The Forex Zone looks at day trade views and forecasts for the major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY.
EURUSD: Erratic, but upside bias still
An erratic tone Thursday, to probe just above 1.1142/43 resistances to 1.1144, then setback but to hold in the 1.1109/01 support zone, to hold onto a positive bias from this week’s spike just above the 1.1173 resistance (to 1.1175) after the mid-December surge above the peaks at 1.1176/83, to keep risks higher Friday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1142/44; break here aims for 1.1173/75 and maybe 1.1197/1.1200.
- But below 1.1107/01 opens risk down towards 1.1054.
GBPUSD: Threat stays lower to key 1.2983
A Thursday plunge below key 1.3051 to switch the intermediate-term outlook from bullish to neutral, with a range now seen as 1.2983 to 1.3422, with risks skewed lower.
Furthermore, this negative price action keeps the threat lower for Friday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.3030; break here aims for critical 1.2983, maybe 1.2930/29.
- But above 1.3088 opens risk up towards 1.3132 and maybe 1.3174.
USDCAD: Bias stays lower
A low-level consolidation Thursday after Wednesday’s selloff below 1.3142 to probe lower through 1.3110/07 supports, to reinforce Tuesday’s rebound stall at the down trend line from early December and capped by the 1.3205 resistance level, to keep risks lower for Friday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.3098; break here aims for 1.3069 and maybe key 1.3037.
- But above 1.3164 opens risk up to 1.3205 and maybe 1.3235.
AUDUSD: Positive theme resuming
A firm rebound Thursday to prod above .6898 resistance, having held through midweek above the .6826 support at the new .6835 level and more notably at the up trend line from late November, to retain a positive tone from the mid-December bull extension above the peaks from early November at .6928/30, plus from the earlier December surge above the .6862 peak and key .6865 level (for an intermediate-term bullish shift), to keep the bias higher into Friday.
- We see an upside bias for .6898/6900; a break above aims for .6939.
- But below .6835 and .6826 opens risk down towards .6797/90 and maybe key .6751.
NZDUSD: Upside bias
A Wednesday-Thursday rebound after Tuesday’s setback held above the support level at .6548 (at .6551), to resume bullish forces from the mid-December rally to another new cycle high above .6622 resistance (to .6636), and the prior rally above key .6591, to keep the bias back higher into Friday.
- We see an upside bias for .6614; break here aims for .6636 and maybe .6643.
- But below .6551/48 opens risk down to .6518/17.
USDJPY: Upside bias, despite dip
A Thursday dip just below minor support at 109.17, but to bounce from just below off of 109.15, after the solid Monday-Wednesday consolidation, to retain upside forces from the mid-December surge above resistances at 109.00 and 109.21 close to the 109.73 cycle peak, to keep the bias higher into Friday.
- We see an upside bias for the key 109.73 peak; break here aims towards the psychological/ option level at 110.00 and maybe 110.37.
- But below 109.17/15 quickly aims for 108.91/90 and opens risk down to 108.53, maybe 108.36.