- An intraday shift to a “risk off” theme Thursday as stock averages reversed early gains with the major global equity indices now eyeing important supports,
- For the Forex markets, this “risk off” theme has again seen some US Dollar strength return against major currencies, (but still sideways against Yen).
- We now look at the US Dollar strength as reflected by EURUSD weakness.
EURUSD day trade outlook: Bear theme reinforced
A Thursday selloff through 1.0767 the April swing low, to reinforce Wednesday’s probe just below 1.0810/09 supports, and despite an intraday bounce, a failure back from the down trend line from March, capped by 1.0847 to retain negative pressures from the mid-April push down through various supports, to keep the risk lower into Friday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.0754/43 and 1.0718; a break below quickly aims for 1.0664 and maybe the cycle low at 1.0633.
- But above 1.0847 targets 1.0905, which we would look to try to cap. Above aims for 1.0939.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early April selloff below 1.0782 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend for 1.0633 1.0500, 1.0340, maybe 1.0000.
- What changes this? Above 1.1039 sees an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral, and above 1.1147 to an intermediate-term bull trend.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart