US equity indices poised for an upside break

Intermediate
  • In recent articles this week here we have highlighted the ongoing resilience of European equity markets, with both the DAX and DJ Euro STOXX 50 benchmark averages hitting new highs for 2019 over the past 24 hours (see below for the DJ Euro STOXX 50 European benchmark).
  • The major US equity averages, however, have remained in sideways ranges and have if anything been testing modest range support factors throughout this week, capped below latter February peaks.
  • This resilient consolidation though, does leaves the major indices in the US poised to play catch up with their European brethren, with risks today and into early March still skewed towards the upside and here we focus on the US flagship average, the S&P 500.

S&P 500 E-Mini bull trend setting up to restart

A sideways consolidation Thursday above our 2781/80 support area, to reinforce upside pressures from Monday’s solid advance to another new cycle high at 2814.0 (just faltering ahead a set of key resistances from Q4 2018 at 2819.0 to 2831.25), leaving risks higher for Friday.

The late January push above 2690.5 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 2803.5 and 2814.0; break here quickly aims for key Q4 2018 targets at 2819.0, 2824.5 and 2831.25 maybe even towards 2850.0.
  • But below 2781/80 opens risk down to 2775.0/70.5, which would look to hold.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 2819.0/31.25.

  • Higher targets would be 2953.25 and 2600.0
  • What Changes This? Below 2612.5 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 2560.5 is needed for a bear theme.

4 Hour Chart

S&P 500 Chart 2019-03-01

DJ Euro STOXX 50 bull trend extends

A dip and a rebound Thursday for a bullish outside pattern to a new cycle high through a 3293 resistance and the psychological/ option target at 3300 and higher again already this morning, to build on Tuesday’s rebound exactly from our 3258 support, keeping risks higher Friday.

The mid-January surge above 3105 set an intermediate-term bull theme.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 3308 and 3312; break here aims for 3324, then maybe towards 3337/38.
  • But below 3291 targets 3281/80 and then maybe aims for 3265, which we would look to try to hold.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 3257.

  • Higher targets would be 3306 and 3429.
  • What Changes This? Below 3025/22 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 2931 is needed for a bear theme.

4 Hour Chart

DowJonesEuro Chart 2019-03-01


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