- An erratic Tuesday session with initial gains to a new record high for the S&P 500, alongside the major US equity indices, with ongoing hopes from last week on positive soundings from the US-China trade talks.
- However, some negative rumours from China alongside further tariff threats from President Trump saw stock markets retreat through the session Tuesday and again overnight.
- However, from a technical perspective, the recent rallies leave risks higher for today and into this week.
Another new record high Tuesday through 3127.75 to 3132.5 to build on Friday’s strong rally through 3011.5, and despite a setback just through 3112.75/11.0 support, whilst holding at 3108.25, to keep the bias higher for Wednesday.
- We see an upside bias for 3124/25; break here aims for 3132.5 and 3138.5 and maybe 3150.0.
- But below 3108.25 quickly targets 3103/02 and then opens risk down 3097/96, even 3081.75.
The mid-October surge above 2965.5 set an intermediate-term bull trend.
Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 3250.0.
What changes this? Below 3020.25 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to an intermediate-term bear theme.
4 Hour S&P 500 Chart