US tariff hike on Chinese goods leaves equites vulnerable

  • This week we have highlighted the overall “risk off” setting for global stock markets here and here and the imposition of a tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods on Friday leaves this negative outlook very much intact.
  • Again, here we spotlight the US benchmark average, the S&P 500.

S&P 500 E-Mini downside threat to key 2789.5

A plunge back lower Thursday through the late March support gap at 2844.5-40.75, after Wednesday’s lacklustre bounce was capped at 2899.5 (below even our initial, modest resistance at 2908/09), to keep the bias lower for Friday.

The early May push below key 2877.25 support sets an intermediate-term range we see as 2789.5 to 2961.25, BUT with risk growing for a push below 2789.5 for an intermediate-term shift to bearish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 2849/48, then 2837.0 and 2832.25; break here aims for 2821.25, 2813.75 and 2802.5/00.0, maybe key 2789.5.
  • But above 2870/71 aims for 2889.0 and opens risk up towards 2899.5 and even 2908/09.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 2789.5 to 2961.25.

Upside Risks: Above 2961.25 sets a bull trend to aim for 3000.0.

  • Downside Risks: Below 2789.5 sees a bear trend to target 2726.5, 2686.0 and 2627.75.

4 Hour Chart

S&P 500 Chart 2019-05-09

Latest News

nikkei 225
Global equity index vulnerabilities

Global financial markets continue to react negatively to global trade war concerns. Asian, European and US equity averages have all rolled back lower this week into late May, damaging rebound effort made from mid-May. This sets the immediate risks lower and starts to resume the negative tone set during the significant selloff in the first … Continued

USDNOK and EURNOK mixed short-term outlooks

USDNOK retains a positive short-term tone within a broader, intermediate-term range. EURNOK has a negative short-term bias, also in a neutral, intermediate-term environment. This tells us more about EURUSD than anything else, that the risks for EURUSD are to the downside. USDNOK upside threat A resilient consolidation for much of May, digesting the later April-early … Continued

Dow Jones
US equity averages cling to a positive tone

A consolidation theme has emerged for the major US (and in fact European) equity averages over the past 1-2 weeks, with no significantly new bad news emerging from the ailing US-Sino trade negotiations. This has allowed equity markets to rebound and ease bear forces from the aggressive selloffs seen in the first half of May. … Continued

USDPLN breaking out for renewed bullish theme

Another push higher Tuesday and again into Wednesday, reinforcing the previous tentative breakout from the Ascending Triangle pattern above 3.8594 and 3.8644 resistances, leaving both short- and intermediate-term bull themes intact and aiming higher for Wednesday. The intermediate-term outlook is bullish, sustained by 2019 solid consolidation above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 rally. … Continued

Forex Brokers in your location