US tariff hike on Chinese goods leaves equites vulnerable

Intermediate
  • This week we have highlighted the overall “risk off” setting for global stock markets here and here and the imposition of a tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods on Friday leaves this negative outlook very much intact.
  • Again, here we spotlight the US benchmark average, the S&P 500.

S&P 500 E-Mini downside threat to key 2789.5

A plunge back lower Thursday through the late March support gap at 2844.5-40.75, after Wednesday’s lacklustre bounce was capped at 2899.5 (below even our initial, modest resistance at 2908/09), to keep the bias lower for Friday.

The early May push below key 2877.25 support sets an intermediate-term range we see as 2789.5 to 2961.25, BUT with risk growing for a push below 2789.5 for an intermediate-term shift to bearish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 2849/48, then 2837.0 and 2832.25; break here aims for 2821.25, 2813.75 and 2802.5/00.0, maybe key 2789.5.
  • But above 2870/71 aims for 2889.0 and opens risk up towards 2899.5 and even 2908/09.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 2789.5 to 2961.25.

Upside Risks: Above 2961.25 sets a bull trend to aim for 3000.0.

  • Downside Risks: Below 2789.5 sees a bear trend to target 2726.5, 2686.0 and 2627.75.

4 Hour Chart

S&P 500 Chart 2019-05-09

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