- Still further gains to yet further highs for 2019 by global equity markets over the past 24 hours with anticipation of a positive outcome from the US-Sino trade negotiations.
- The overall “risk on” tone across global capital markets has also impacted Forex markets, with the Australian Dollar rebounding firmly this week, whilst the Japanese Yen, usually seen as a “safe haven” currency, losing ground against most other major currencies.
- The USDJPY Forex rate is often a significant mover through the US Employment report, which is due for release today.
- USDJPY has been grinding higher all week and is poised to make a more bullish technical signal.
USDJPY upside technical risks
Again, another prod higher Thursday/ Friday just above resistance at 111.70, to build on Monday’s push up through better 110.95/96 resistances, plus the late March dip and rebound from 110.00/109.99 supports, to keep the bias higher Friday.
We now see an intermediate-term range as 109.69/66 to 112.14, BUT with risk growing for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 112.14.
- We see an upside bias for 111.80 and 111.90; break here aims for key 112.14, maybe then 112.16 and 113.07.
- But below 111.18 quickly aims at 110.80 then 110.51 and maybe opens risk down to 110.00/ 109.99.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 109.69/66 to 112.14.
- Upside Risks: Above 112.14 sets a bull trend to aim for 113.71, 114.55 and 115.00.
- Downside Risks: Below 109.69/66 sees a bear trend to target 108.47, 107.74, 106.72/55 and 105.00.
4 Hour USD/JPY Chart