AUDUSD and NZDUSD rebounds question bear trends

Intermediate
  • Positive comments from US President Trump regarding a likely meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Meeting in Osaka, Japan.
  • This sparked hopes of a resumption of trade negotiations, increasing investor risk appetite and sent riskier assets higher, with global stock indices posting firm gains on Tuesday.
  • Furthermore, the “risk currencies”, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars also benefited, with AUDUSD and NZDUSD Forex rates rallying.
  • The AUDUSD and NZDUSD FX rates are in an intermediate-term bear mode, but the recent rebounds have questioned immediate bear risks.
  • In addition, we have the Fed Meeting today, so all eyes on them to signal a possible interest rate cut in July (with only a small possibility for a rate cut today), although this is very much discounted into financial markets.

AUDUSD bear threat eased

A Tuesday rebound exactly from our .6829 support from the start of 2019 flash crash, to reverse above the very accelerated down trend line from early June, easing immediate bear risks for Wednesday (with a possible upside threat).

The mid-June plunge through.6863/62 lows resumed an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see an upside bias for .6885/86; break here aims for .6903 and opens risk up to .6938.
  • But below .6848 opens risk down to .6829, maybe towards .6800.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6829 and .6738.

  • What Changes This? Above .6973 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .7022 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd

NZDUSD short-term bear forces eased

A firm rebound Tuesday having held Monday just above the cycle low at .6480, to push above the accelerated June bear trend line and the .6515 resistance level, to ease bear forces, but we hold onto a negative tone whilst below .6548 to aim lower Wednesday

The mid-June surrender of key .6495/93 supports set an intermediate-term bearish trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6548; break here aims for up towards key .6593.
  • But below .6506 opens risk down to .6484/80, maybe for .6455.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6424.

  • Lower targets would be .6347 and .6196.
  • What Changes This? Above .6593 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .6681 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd

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