Australian Dollar bullish in “risk on” environment (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate
  • Markets are still in “risk on” mode through the Easter weekend as we highlighted in early April reports, most recently here highlighting downside risks for USDCAD.
  • The S&P 500 and European equity indices have reinforced this view already this week hitting new recovery highs.
  • The “risk currencies”; the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars continue to rally, particularly versus the US Dollar, which itself is currently viewed as a safe haven currency.
  • Here we spotlight AUDUSD

AUDUSD day trade outlook: Intermediate-term bull shift reinforced 

A surge Thursday through .6281 and .6326 resistances and higher again Monday, to reinforce Wednesday’s probe above our key swing peak at .6214 (that shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish) and to keep risks higher into Tuesday.

  • We see an upside bias for .6401; a break above aims for .6459, maybe towards .6501.
  • But below .6328 targets .6284, which we would look to try to hold. Below aims at .6223.

AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early April push surge above .6214 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

  • Upside threat: We see an intermediate-term bull trend for .6685 maybe .7032.
  • What changes this? Below .5977 switches the bull trend to neutral and through .5860 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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