Euro still negative – EURUSD Forecast

  • A further shift towards a “risk off” theme Wednesday after a similar move Tuesday, with global stock averages selling off and the US Dollar rallying against most major currencies, as a “safe haven” currency.
  • This has been driven by concerns of second wave of infections and deaths from the COVID-19 coronavirus, in the wake of global economies starting to emerge from lockdown.
  • Plus, Wednesday’s speech by Fed Chairman Powell was somewhat downbeat on the US economy.
  • Here we look at the negative tone for the Euro as displayed by the EURUSD Forex rate, from a technical analysis perspective with our EURUSD forecast.
  • Also see our bigger picture article, Forex Zone: Intermediate-term Euro forecasts – broadly bearish, here including EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, EURSEK and EURNOK forecasts

EURUSD day trade outlook: A negative bias

A Wednesday failure from just above our 1.0885 resistance, from 1.0896, to hold onto a negative tone from the early May selloff from 1.1019 down through various supports, to keep the risk lower into Thursday.

  • We see a downside bias for 1.0782, then 1.0764; a break below maybe aims for key 1.0725/18.
  • But above 1.0896 targets 1.0926, maybe even towards 1.0949.

EURUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early April selloff below 1.0782 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend for 1.0633 1.0500, 1.0340, maybe 1.0000.
  • What changes this? Above 1.1039 sees an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral, and above 1.1147 to an intermediate-term bull trend.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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