Euro surges after ECB PEPP expansion (EURUSD Forecast)

Intermediate
  • The “risk on” theme that has extended into early June has kept the safe haven US Dollar in a weakened position, sending EURUSD higher since latter May.
  • The acceleration higher over the past 24 hours was driven by the European Central Bank (ECB) confirming larger than expected increase of EUR600bln for its Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Programme (PEPP).
  • Here we look at the EURUSD forecast into today and June.

EURUSD day trade outlook: Bull theme re-energised

A surge Thursday through numerous resistances as high as 1.134 to 1.1363, to build on Monday’s rally through the key 1.1147 target (to signal an intermediate-term shift from neutral to bullish), PLUS the late May surge above key 1.1039, to keep the risk higher Friday.

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1363/67; a break above here aims for 1.1414, maybe towards 1.1457.
  • But below 1.1310 targets 1.1272/70 and maybe even 1.1193/82.

EURUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early June rally above 1.1147 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend for 1.1367 and 1.1496
  • What changes this: Below 1.0869 sets intermediate-term neutral theme, and only below 1.0764 a bear trend.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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