The Forex Zone: US Dollar Weakness


The second edition of a regular feature, FX Explained in The Forex Zone. We will take a video run through of the Major Forex pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD upside risks

A Thursday extension above the 1.1289/1.1304 resistance area to build on Wednesday’s surge above 1.1250/53 resistances, to reinforce the erratic, intermediate-term theme, but to also set the bias higher for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for the 1.1317; break here aims for the key 1.1348 peak, maybe towards 1.1390
  • But below 1.1268 opens risk down to 1.1233.

GBPUSD risk stays higher

A Thursday extension higher above resistance at 1.2708 and the down trend line from early May to just stop and the May-June basing neckline, to build on Wednesday’s strong advance, to keep risks higher into Friday.

For Today:     

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2727; break here aims for 1.2763 and maybe closer to key 1.2814.
  • But below 1.2630 opens risk down to 1.2540.

USDCAD bear forces intact

A further plunge Thursday as also seen Wednesday after the Fed Meeting to wipe out further June support at the multiweek low as 1.322, to reinforce both short- and intermediate-term bear threats, keeping risks lower for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3145; break here aims for 1.3114/10 and then 1.3064.
  • But above 1.3246 opens risk up to 1.3308.

AUDUSD upside risks increasing

A firm advance Thursday to build on the positive, but erratic tone Wednesday after the Fed, now up through 6909 resistance to just stall at our 6938 barrier (at .6936), to sustain upside forces from Tuesday’s rebound exactly from our .6829 level (support from the very early 2019 flash crash), keeping the threat higher Friday.

For Today:     

  • We see an upside bias for .6936/38; break here aims towards key .6973.
  • But below .6884 opens risk down to .6852/48.

NZDUSD intermediate-term shift to neutral from bearish; risks higher

The surge Thursday through .6593 now sets a broader, intermediate-term range, we see as .6681 to .6484/80, BUT with the skewed bias for an intermediate-term bullish shift above .7022.

The strong rally Thursday also keeps the threat higher Friday.

For Today:

We see an upside bias for .6604; break here quickly aims for .6628, maybe even towards key .6681.

But below .6549 opens risk down to .6510/06.


USDJPY bear trend re-energised

Another plunge lower Thursday through 107.79/74 supports and overnight through 107.10 to reinforce Wednesday’s post-fed selloff,  having been reluctant through June to overcome the resistance area at 108.72/80 restarting the intermediate-term bear bias from the late May/ early June plunge through notable support at 108.47 (from January 2019), keeping the risks lower into Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 107.02; break here aims for 106.72/55, then maybe towards 106.00.
  • But above 107.39 aims for 107.88 and maybe opens risk up towards 108.40

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