FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 30/09/19 – Trump impeachment enquiry

Intermediate

Recap: Trump impeachment enquiry and UK politics to the fore

Trump Pelosi
  • The main event last week was the publication of the conversation between US President Trump and the Ukrainian President. Subsequently, Nancy Pelosi (the House of Representatives Speaker), has initiated an impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s actions. The impact on riskier assets classes (notable stock markets) was negative.
  • Middle East stresses remain high in the wake of the September attacks in Saudi Arabia and although these tensions have not escalated, this sensitive situation has to be monitored going forward.
  • The US-Sino trade talks are set to resume in early October. The minor development the past week was President Trump stating in relation to a trade deal, “it could happen sooner than you think
  • In the UK, the English Supreme Court ruled that the proroguing of Parliament by the Conservative Government and Prime Minister Boris Johnson was unlawful. This leaves UK politics in a fragile position with a possible vote of no confidence in the Government this week.  The Pound has weakened due to this uncertainty, with Sterling significantly lower against the Euro and also the US Dollar.
  • European data continues to disappoint with German, French and Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) missing market expectations. This saw a weakening of the Euro with the EURUSD Forex rate moving to its lowest level since 2017.
  • Overall, late September has seen a raising of geopolitical strains (plus the waning European data).  Global stock indices have plunged lower this past week, with safe haven bond markets pushing to lower yields. The US Dollar stays the strong currency in the Forex world as a safe haven, assisted by Federal Reserve Members indicating an “on-hold” Fed into year end.

Key this week

Date Key Macroeconomic Events
30/09/19 China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), UK GDP
01/10/19 Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting, Manufacturing PMI (global), Eurozone CPI, US ISM Manufacturing
02/10/19 US ADP Employment Change
03/10/19 Non-Manufacturing PMI (global), US ISM Non-Manufacturing
04/10/19 US Employment report

Steve Miley

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Latest Related News

The Forex Zone Forecasts – US Dollar weakens, with Pound to USD bullish

US Dollar shifts to a weaker theme across the major currencies, with the GBP USD Chart showing a bullish break The Forex Zone looks at day trade views and forecasts for the major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD: Bull theme intact A firm rebound and consolidation tone on Thursday to build on Wednesday's spike above key 1.1097 (to signal an intermediate-term… Continued

EURUSD forecast is positive with a weakened US Dollar

A broad “risk off” scenario hit global markets Monday as US President Trump put tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina, heightening the global trade war.This sent stocks lower, and in this scenario had a negative impact on the US Dollar within G3, with the greenback losing ground to both the Japanese Yen and Euro (EURUSD higher).This theme was reinforced by weaker… Continued

A cautious Thanksgiving week ahead of a busy week

The US-China trade talks yielded some upside last week with reports of a positive phone call between China’s top trade negotiator Liu He and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary on Tuesday. This was followed by China announcing new guidelines and penalties for the protection of patents and copyrights, which has been a key issue in the dispute. On the… Continued

Rising Eurozone Inflation does not lift EUR/USD Prospects

Eurozone inflation picked up in NovemberBroader economic picture does not indicate pricing pressureThe market is showing a greater disposition to the DollarThe EURUSD pair cannot break out from a long running bear channel Despite signs of recovery in recent Eurozone data the Euro to U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) exchange rate ended the week on a lower note. The pair started the past week at 1.1021 and… Continued

Cautious Forex through the Thanksgiving week

Very quiet conditions see minor negatives on the Dollar Index (DXY)Positives on the Euro (EURUSD)Markets tend to reverse or accelerate around holidays, so some action and bigger ranges should begin this week Continued

Forex Brokers in your location