Pound rebounds on YouGov poll pointing to Tory majority (GBPUSD)

Intermediate
  • In the U.K. a YouGov poll using a method that successfully forecast the 2017 general election result was released late Wednesday.
  • It has forecast a Conservative win, critically giving them a 68-seat majority.
  • This helped the Pound rally in late trading Wednesday with GBPUSD pushing back up to 1.2950
  • Remember, however, markets are likely to be relatively quiet Thursday and with reduced volatility today, given the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with markets there closed.

GBPUSD: Risks flip back higher

A Wednesday push above 1.2912 and 1.2928 resistances, having rebounded from just above our 1.2823 support (from 1.2827) to reject Tuesday’s setback and resume upside pressures from Monday’s rebound (above 1.2888 resistance), to switch risks lower for Thursday.

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2950; break here aims for 1.2970 and 1.298, maybe even key 1.3013.
  • But below 1.2882 opens risk down to 1.2827/23.

Intermediate-term outlook

Range breakout parameters: Range seen as 1.2768 to 1.3013.

  • Upside risks: Above 1.3013 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.3177, 1.3397, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
  • Downside risks: Below 1.2768 sees an intermediate-term bear trend to target 1.2516, 1.2405 and 1.2197.1.2895

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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