Pound shifts far more bearish – GBPUSD forecast

Intermediate
  • The GBPUSD positive theme we highlighted here a week ago has been rejected by the negative price action this week.
  • Far more negative developments from EU/UK trade negotiation with more aggressive brinkmanship have weighed on the Pound against both the US Dollar and Euro.
  • In addition, US Dollar strength in the wake of the US tech stock rout since last week has also helped Cable (GBPUSD) lower.
  • Here we look at GBPUSD downside risks today, this week and through mid-September.

GBPUSD day trade outlook: Intermediate-term bear shift

Again, a plunge lower Tuesday through solid 1.3053/45 supports and key 1.2981, to shift the intermediate -term outlook straight to bearish, to also reinforce immediate downside forces from Monday’s deep setback (as also seen from early September) to reverse below the up trend line from late June, to keep the risk to the downside into Wednesday. 

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2950/44 and 1.2888; a break here aims for 1.2838, maybe even towards 1.2777.
  • But above 1.3056 opens risk up to 1.3100/05 and possibly 1.3159.

GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook

The push below early September push below 1.2981 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.2644, 12480 and maybe 1.2251.

What changes this? Above 1.3239 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend to neutral; through 1.3359 to an intermediate-term bull trend.

6 Hour GBPUSD Chart
6 Hour GBPUSD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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