Pound stays negative despite rebound – GBPUSD forecast

Intermediate
  • The GBPUSD negative theme we highlighted here last week has been questioned by the rebound efforts this week.
  • However, with regards to both the Internal Markets Bill and the trade negations with the EU we still see game theory, brinkmanship resuming.
  • This could still leave the Pound vulnerable going forward.
  • Here we look at GBPUSD downside risks today and into the second half of September.

GBPUSD day trade outlook: Strong rebound, but looking for 1.3035/56 to cap

A firm advance Wednesday through 1.2919/26 but to stall below 1.3035/56 resistance and whilst below her we hang onto the bear forces from the earlier September plunge down through numerous supports including key 1.2981 (to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bearish), to just keep the risk to the downside into Thursday. 

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2877/75 and 1.2815/10; a break here maybe aims for 1.2762 and even 1.2717.
  • But above 1.3007 quickly aims for 1.3035/56 and possibly opens risk up to 1.3100/05, maybe towards 1.3159.

GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early September push below 1.2981 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.2644, 12480 and maybe 1.2251.

What changes this? Above 1.3239 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend to neutral; through 1.3359 to an intermediate-term bull trend.

6 Hour GBPUSD Chart
6 Hour GBPUSD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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