“Risk currencies” consolidating, but still bullish – AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts

  • A consolidation theme over the past couple of days for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars, the major “risk currencies”
  • We see this as a digestion with the core “risk on” theme intact
  • The “risk on” outlook driven by:
    • The Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine announcements
    • Congress looking to discuss the next pandemic relief package
  • Mnuchin pulling the plug on some pandemic lending programs has been a negative
  • The AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD Forex rates are all reviewed below from a technical analysis standpoint.

AUDUSD day trade outlook: Setback and rebound sustain upside forces

Again, a Thursday dip just below our .7268 support, to again bounce now from .7251, to hold onto upside forces from this week’s rally to stall just below resistances at 7340/45, from .7334, plus from the earlier November surge up to .7340, to keep risks higher for Friday

Day trade setup

·      We see an upside bias for .7334/40/45; a break here maybe aims for .7382.

·      But below .7251 aims for .7218 and opens risk down to .7199.

AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early November push above the key .7244 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to bullish.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for .7413 and .7677.
  • What changes this? Below .7046 sees the intermediate-term bull trend switch to neutral and below .6987 to a bear trend.

8 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD day trade outlook: Dip and a bounce, aiming at the new multi-month high

A setback Thursday after Wednesday’s firm advance to a new cycle high at .6945, but holding and rebounding Thursday from above the .6871 support level, from .6875, to sustain upside forces from the earlier November rebound from the now key .6807/6792 support area, plus from the whole November surge above key resistance from 2019 at .6837, to keep the bias higher Friday.

Day trade setup

·      We see an upside bias for .6945 and key .6969/70 and maybe towards critical .7000.

·      But below .6875/71 quickly opens risk down to .6858 and maybe aims for key .6807/6792.

NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .6969/70 and maybe .7395/7400.
  • What changes this? Below .6486 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.

8 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

USDCAD day trade outlook: Bear theme

A consolidation Thursday after the mid-November push lower close to 1.3026/23 support started to reject the prior November rebound from 1.2924 to 1.3173, to resume beer forces from the earlier November, significant sell-off through the key 1.2990 low from September and critical 1.2948 low from December 2019, to a multi-year low at 1.2924, to keep the risk lower for Friday. 

Day trade setup

·      We see a downside bias for 1.3026/23; a break here aims for 1.2982/72, maybe even 1.2924.

·      But above 1.3124 aims for key 1.3173 and maybe 1.3200.

USDCAD intermediate-term outlook

The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2799 and 1.2550.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3418/20 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.

8 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued

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