S&P 500 bull threat, poised at key resistance – S&P 500 forecast

Intermediate
  • In our last report on the S&P 500 at the end of September we highlighted the rebound for this index and global equity markets.
  • The Subsequent price action has seen strong recoveries across global equity markets, particularly in the US, driven by renewed hopes of a US economic relief package before the US election.
  • In addition, markets are becoming increasingly comfortable with a Biden victory and a potential clean sweep by the Democrats, as this would open the way for a more substantial relief package going forward.
  • Furthermore, a categoric Biden victory would ease the threat of an uneasy transition of power (Trump challenging the election result). This is a concern for traders and investors, remember markets hate indecision.
  • Here we once more look at the technical analysis for the US benchmark average, the S&P 500.

S&P 500 future day trade outlook: Upside risks still to key 3421.75/24.25 peaks

Day trade update and view

A Wednesday rebound from 3330.5 to reject the Tuesday’s late session setback and reinforce Tuesday’s probe up into the area defined by our key peaks at 3419.5/24.25, to 3421.75, to retain upside pressures from the latter September dip and bounce from above the 3282.0 support (from 3291.25), to keep the risk to the upside Thursday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for key peaks at 3421.75/24.25; a break here aims at 3447.0/53.25, even towards 3484.25.
  • But below 3362.75 opens risk down to 3330.5 and possibly 3319.5 and even 3300.25.

S&P 500 future intermediate-term outlook

The early September sell-off below 3319.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a broader range seen as 3190.25/88.5 to 3484.25.

Downside risks: Below 3190.25/88.5 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to target 3105.25, 3000.0, 2983.5 and 2923.75.

Upside risks: Above 3421.75/24.25 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to target 3587.0, the 3626/30 extension target area and 3709.75.

6 Hour S&P 500 Chart

S&P 500 chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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