Stocks bounce but still heavy, with US economic relief bill stalling – S&P 500 forecast

  • Global stocks averages have rebounded overnight into Tuesday, despite the US Senate stalling on the $2 trillion economic relief bill
  • Asian and European stocks have advanced through resistance levels, BUT are far from bullish
  • US equity futures, however, remain under negative pressures having gapped lower to new bear cycle lows on
  • Here we focus on the future on the US benchmark average, the S&P 500, which has underperformed slightly this week compared to Asian and European equity averages.

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures day trade outlook: Bear theme intact, despite bounce after new cycle low

A Monday recovery after a gap lower (2229.0-60.0) through the prior bear cycle low at 2262.0 to a new low at 2174.0, to close the bear gap and also overcome further resistances, but to stall at 2386.0 new resistance, and whilst capped here to leave the very bearish tone seen throughout March, to keep risks lower again Tuesday.

·       We see a downside bias for 2270.25 and 2241.25; a break below aims for 2230.5, maybe 2174.0 and 2147.5.

·       But above 2386.0 targets 2395/2400, which we would look to try to cap; above opens risk up 2442.5 and maybe towards 2499.0.

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures intermediate-term outlook

The latter February plunge below 3303.5 signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.

·       Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 2000.0 maybe 1802.5.

·       What Changes This? Above 2884.75 sees an intermediate-term neutral range and above 3137.0 a bull trend.


Daily S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Chart

S&P 500 chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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