The Forex Zone – US Dollar staying broadly firm


The Forex Zone is a review of day trade views for major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. In another erratic week for FX markets the US Dollar has broadly remained the strong currency (alongside the Japanese Yen).

EURUSD: Bear forces intact

Another failure back from below the 1.1133 resistance level on Thursday (from 1.1115) to now push to another new setback low through 1.1064, reinforcing negative pressures from the notable mid-August selloff through the key 1.1069 level, to keep risks lower Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1059; break here aims for the key cycle low at 1.1025 and psychological/ option target at 1.1000.
  • But above 1.1090 opens risk up to 1.1115 and maybe 1.1133.

GBPUSD: Intermediate-term shift to neutral (from bearish); risks stay higher

A surge Thursday through 1.2250 resistance to neutralise the intermediate-term bear trend and establish an intermediate-term range we now see as 1.2518 to 1.2013.

Furthermore, this positive price action sets risks higher again for Friday.

For Today:                                               

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2253 and 1.2273; break here aims for 1.2297, maybe 1.2323.
  • But below 1.2181 opens risk down to 1.2106.

USDCAD: Risks stay higher

Again, as seen on Wednesday a dip and firm rebound Thursday from above our 1.3248/33 support area (from 1.3271) to reinforce Tuesday’s advance to a new recovery peak just above 1.3345 to 1.3346, keeping the bias higher Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for and 1.3345/46; break here aims for 1.3383 and maybe key 1.3432.
  • But below 1.3271 opens risk down to 1.3248/33.

AUDUSD: Negative in a range

A push lower Thursday for a more negative tone since Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, having been capped by the .6816/22 peaks (from the .6795/99 resistance area), for a negative breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, to keep risks lower into Friday.

For Today:                                                         

  • We see a downside bias for .6743 and .6732; break here aims for key .6707 and maybe .6673.
  • But above .6795/99 aims for .6816/22 and maybe opens risk up towards .6868.

NZDUSD: Bearish shift

A plunge lower Thursday to a new cycle low through .6376, to reinforce the negative consolidation theme over the past and from the earlier August plunge lower, and despite a bounce this morning after dovish comment from the RBNZ, we see risks lower into Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6359 and .6347; break here aims for .6323 and opens risk down to .6301/00.
  • But above .6396 opens risk up to .6420.

USDJPY: Bias still lower whilst below 106.78

A sideways consolidation theme again Thursday and as seen all of this week, but whilst still capped at our 106.78 resistance we see a negative bias from the mid-August failures back from 106.98 and 106.78, to keep risks lower into Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 105.93 and 105.60; break here aims for 105.02/00.
  • But above 106.78 opens risk up to 106.98/107.09 and maybe towards 107.28.

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