The Forex Zone – US Dollar weakness on Fed rate cut concerns


A weaker US Dollar this week with a global and more specifically US risk off theme emerging, with trade tension escalating to Europe and poor US ISM Manufacturing data highlighting US economic weakness.

The Forex Zone looks at day trade set ups for the major Forex pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD: Risks shift higher

A further rebound Thursday now above notable 1.0948 and 1.0967 resistances to reject bear forces from Monday’s plunge to another new multi-year low, to shift risks higher for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.0996; break here aims for 1.1024/26 and maybe 1.102.
  • But below 1.0939 opens risk down to 10909 and maybe 1.0878.
eurusd chart

GBPUSD: Risks higher

A surge back higher Thursday to build on Wednesday’s positive consolidation tone to now push above 1.2340/46 and 1.2381resistances, rejecting immediate bear forces from Tuesday’s plunge below key 1.2231 support, to flip risks higher for Friday.

For Today:                                               

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2412 and 1.2436; break here aims for key 1.2503.
  • But below 1.2323 opens risk down to 1.2264, maybe 1.2203.
gbpusd chart

USDCAD: Threat stays higher

A prod higher Thursday and high-level consolidation through 1.3335/39 resistances, to reinforce Wednesday’s surge up through 1.3291 from the 1.3209/00 support area, to sustain immediate upside pressures and keep risks higher for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3348; break here aims for key 1.3383 and maybe towards 1.3433.
  • But below 1.3285 opens risk down to 1.3234.

AUDUSD: Upside correction threat

A Thursday rebound through initial .6719 resistance and also .6734, to ease bear forces from Tuesday’s surrender of key .6685 and .6673 to a new cycle low, to flip the bias higher Friday.

For Today:                                                         

  • We see an upside bias through .6760 for .6776/81; break here aims for key .6806/09.
  • But below .6720 opens risk down to .6699.

NZDUSD: Upside bias

A Thursday rebound through .6272 and .6294 resistances and the down trend line from mid-September, to reject immediate bear forces from Tuesday’s selloff to another new cycle low, to switch the bias higher for Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6326/27; break here aims for key .6349.
  • But below .6279 opens risk down to .6252, maybe .6215.

USDJPY: Intermediate-term bear shift through key 106.93 

A plunge lower Thursday for an intermediate-term shift from bullish to bearish through 106.93.

This negative Thursday push below 106.93 has reinforced Wednesday’s failure from below 108.04 resistance (from 107.89) after Tuesday’s failure rally from just below the notable 108.48 resistance peak, to keep the threat lower Friday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 106.47 and 106.32; break here aims for 105.99/97 and maybe 105.69
  • But above 107.30 opens risk up to 107.89.

Steve Miley

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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