USDJPY aiming back lower (USDJPY forecast)

Intermediate
  • Global financial markets have shifted back to more of a “risk off” phase since the start of Q2 into April, with stock averages lower (see our recent reports on the DAX and S&P500 ).
  • In turn, this “risk off” phase has seen broader US Dollar strength resuming, except against the Yen, with the safe haven Japanese currency probing lower against the US Dollar.
  • Despite a small USDJPY bounce over the past 24 hours, the threat remains for further USDJPY losses, whilst we stay in the “risk off” theme.

USDJPY day trade outlook: Threat still lower, despite bounce

A small rebound Thursday just above 107.94 resistance, but to stall at 108.20, and whilst below here we still see negative forces from the late March rebound failure from below 109.07 resistance (from 108.73) and latter March selloff through the March bull trend line, to keep risks lower for Friday.

  • We see a downside bias for 107.22, 106.89 and key 106.73; a break below aims for 106.21 and maybe towards 105.56.
  • But above 108.20 targets 108.73, maybe even towards 109.07.

USDJPY intermediate-term outlook

The mid-March surge up through 108.50 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside threat: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 112.23 and 114.55.
  • What changes this? Below 106.73 shift the intermediate-term bull trend to neutral and only below 105.12 to bearish.

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

USDJPY chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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