Latest USD JPY Analysis and ForecastUpdated May 16th, 2021
US Dollar weakens in "risk on" environment, but the Japanese Yen is even more vulnerable as the ultimate "safe haven" currency
- The US Dollar has weakened across the Forex board into mid-May, as global equity markets retain a "risk on" tone.
- But the Japanese Yen is even more vulnerable as the ultimate, historic "safe haven" currency.
Holding onto upside risks, maybe to key 109.94/96 resistances
Day trade update and view
A prod lower Friday to then bounce intrastate from 109.15. and whilst holding here to sustain upside pressures from the mid-May surge through topping resistance, keeping risks to the upside for Monday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 109.79 and key 109.94/96 resistances; a break here aims for 110.55 and maybe 110.97.
- But below 109.16 opens risk down to 108.87 and possibly 108.31.
The mid-April push below key 108.30/29 supports signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 104.89 and 102.57.
- What changes this? Above 109.94/96 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.
USD JPY Calendar
17/05/21 China Industrial Production & Retail Sales
18/05/21 Japanese GDP; UK Employment report; EU GDP; ECB’s President Lagarde speaks
19/05/21 UK CPI; Canadian CPI; FOMC Minutes
20/05/21 Australian Employment report; ECB’s President Lagarde speaks
21/05/21 Japanese CPI; Australian Retail Sales; UK Retail Sales; Canadian Retail Sales; global Markit Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIView Full Calendar
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