USDJPY Currency pair flag

Latest USD JPY Analysis and Forecast

US Dollar weakens in "risk on" environment, but the Japanese Yen is even more vulnerable as the ultimate "safe haven" currency  

  • The US Dollar has weakened across the Forex board into mid-May, as global equity markets retain a "risk on" tone.
  • But the Japanese Yen is even more vulnerable as the ultimate, historic "safe haven" currency.

Holding onto upside risks, maybe to key 109.94/96 resistances

Day trade update and view

A prod lower Friday to then bounce intrastate from 109.15. and whilst holding here to sustain upside pressures from the mid-May surge through topping resistance, keeping risks to the upside for Monday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 109.79 and key 109.94/96 resistances; a break here aims for 110.55 and maybe 110.97.
  • But below 109.16 opens risk down to 108.87 and possibly 108.31.

Intermediate-term outlook

The mid-April push below key 108.30/29 supports signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 104.89 and 102.57.
  • What changes this? Above 109.94/96 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

USD JPY Calendar

17/05/21 China Industrial Production & Retail Sales

18/05/21 Japanese GDP; UK Employment report; EU GDP; ECB’s President Lagarde speaks

19/05/21 UK CPI; Canadian CPI; FOMC Minutes

20/05/21 Australian Employment report; ECB’s President Lagarde speaks

21/05/21 Japanese CPI; Australian Retail Sales; UK Retail Sales; Canadian Retail Sales; global Markit Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI

View Full Calendar

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Other major currency pairs

BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
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