- In this article we are going to take a look at the intermediate-term outlooks for two “risk” currencies, the Australian and Canadian Dollars versus the safe haven currency, the Swiss Franc.
- Bear trends in CADCHF and AUDCHF are a result of the current, broad “risk off” environment across global financial markets, in the wake of developing trade wars.
- The threats for both CADCHF and AUDCHF into June are for further losses.
A plunge lower at the end of May last week has reinforced short-term bearish pressures and also pushed below a key swing low from March at .7384, to produce an intermediate-term Double Top pattern.
This reinforces both the intermediate-term bear trend and also leaves immediate risks lower for early June
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7347.
- Lower targets would be .7224, .7177 and .7000
- What Changes This? Above .7493 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7550 is needed for a bull theme.
A plunge lower throughout May through a key swing low from late March at .7023 to form an intermediate-term Double Top pattern.
The low -level consolidation into the end of May, pushing lower again into month end late last week, sustains very short-term bear forces and keeps both short- and the intermediate-term bear trends intact for early June and beyond.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6881.
- Lower target would .6678 and .6500
- What Changes This? Above .7016 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7166 is needed for a bull theme.
Daily AUDCHF Chart