A focus on the Euro versus the Eurozone periphery (EURSEK, EURPLN, EURTRY)

Intermediate
  • The Euro has seen a strong rebound in early June versus the US Dollar (EURUSD through notable resistances at the 1.1264/65 peaks, as the US$ has weakened due to concerns about a deteriorating outlook for the US economy and a more dovish FOMC.
  • HOWEVER, the Euro remains vulnerable to further losses versus the Eurozone periphery currencies.
  • Here we focus on the intermediate-term downside risks for the Euro versus the Swedish Krona, the Polish Zloty and the Turkish Lira (EURSEK, EURPLN and EURTRY).

EURSEK

A low-level consolidation to start June after the selloff from mid-May that saw a reversal of the uptrend line from latter April and through numerous supports to reject the up leg from early May.

This activity leaves intermediate-term bearish pressures intact and sets the bias lower for early June, this week, and also for the month.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 10.566.

  • Lower targets would be 10.432 and 10.378
  • What Changes This? Above 10.726 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 10.849 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURSEK Chart

eursek

EURPLN

A plunge lower in latter May into early June has reinforced the roll lower in mid-May from 4.3139, from below the key March failure peak at 4.3160, to leave an intermediate-term downside risk within a broader consolidation.

The intermediate-term threat is to the lower end of the 2019 trading range, which would look to offer support between 4.2699 and 4.2589

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 4.2371.

  • Lower targets would be 4.2699 and maybe towards 4.2589.
  • What Changes This? Above 4.3039 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 4.3160 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURPLN Chart

eurpln

EURTRY

A late May plunge lower reinforced the earlier May reversal below the accelerated, up trend line from late March to confirming an intermediate-term top and an intermediate-term bear theme.

The push still lower into early June has reinforces both the short- and intermediate-term bear trends, leaving risks lower for both this week and at least into mid-June.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 6.4537.

  • Lower targets would be 6.2414, 6.0000 and maybe 5.9568
  • What Changes This? Above 6.8999 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 7.0321 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURTRY Chart

eurtry

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comments on this analysis

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Latest Related News

Forex Zone: Intermediate-term Euro forecasts – broadly bearish

EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, EURSEK and EURNOK forecasts In this analysis we are going to spotlight the Euro in the aftermath of the substantial price action seen throughout global financial markets in March, April and into May, since the spread of the coronavirus, COVID-19 into Europe and the US. Together with the impulsive moves across global stock markets, the Forex markets have seen significant price… Continued

Forex Brokers in your location