A focus on the Euro versus the Eurozone periphery (EURSEK, EURPLN, EURTRY)

  • The Euro has seen a strong rebound in early June versus the US Dollar (EURUSD through notable resistances at the 1.1264/65 peaks, as the US$ has weakened due to concerns about a deteriorating outlook for the US economy and a more dovish FOMC.
  • HOWEVER, the Euro remains vulnerable to further losses versus the Eurozone periphery currencies.
  • Here we focus on the intermediate-term downside risks for the Euro versus the Swedish Krona, the Polish Zloty and the Turkish Lira (EURSEK, EURPLN and EURTRY).


A low-level consolidation to start June after the selloff from mid-May that saw a reversal of the uptrend line from latter April and through numerous supports to reject the up leg from early May.

This activity leaves intermediate-term bearish pressures intact and sets the bias lower for early June, this week, and also for the month.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 10.566.

  • Lower targets would be 10.432 and 10.378
  • What Changes This? Above 10.726 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 10.849 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURSEK Chart



A plunge lower in latter May into early June has reinforced the roll lower in mid-May from 4.3139, from below the key March failure peak at 4.3160, to leave an intermediate-term downside risk within a broader consolidation.

The intermediate-term threat is to the lower end of the 2019 trading range, which would look to offer support between 4.2699 and 4.2589

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 4.2371.

  • Lower targets would be 4.2699 and maybe towards 4.2589.
  • What Changes This? Above 4.3039 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 4.3160 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURPLN Chart



A late May plunge lower reinforced the earlier May reversal below the accelerated, up trend line from late March to confirming an intermediate-term top and an intermediate-term bear theme.

The push still lower into early June has reinforces both the short- and intermediate-term bear trends, leaving risks lower for both this week and at least into mid-June.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 6.4537.

  • Lower targets would be 6.2414, 6.0000 and maybe 5.9568
  • What Changes This? Above 6.8999 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 7.0321 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURTRY Chart


Comments on this analysis

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