Hungarian Forint stays weak in “risk off” phase – USDHUF and EURHUF

Intermediate
  • Global financial markets are still within a “risk off” environment, with ongoing fears from trade war concerns, despite no significant negative developments recently.
  • Stock markets in Asian, Europe and the US have sold off again this week, with the European averages making (or poised to make) more bearish statements, as highlighted here in our report from Wednesday 29th May (the DAX has already broken its key level from the report).
  • In this environment, Emerging Markets currencies tend to lose value and the Hungarian Forint has retained a more negative tone in this “risk off” phase.
  • Here we look at upside threats for both USDHUF and EURHUF Forex rates (that is potential Hungarian Forint weakness)

USDHUF

A setback last week from a new cycle high at 294.76, but then a rebound from a probe of the April-May up trend line, off of 289.77, to sustain the intermediate-term bullish theme from the latter April breakout above the key 287,86 range peak, to keep risks higher for Thursday and late May (likely into early June).

The intermediate-term outlook is bullish, with the April bull shift through the multi-month range top at 287.86 setting the intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:  

  • We see an upside bias for 293.62; break here aims for 294.76.
  • But below 291.20 opens risk down to 290.84, maybe towards 289.77.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 294.76.

  • Higher targets would be 295.59, 300.00 and 302.18
  • What Changes This? Below 287.10 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

Daily USDHUF Chart

USDHUF Chart 2019-05-29

EURHUF

A setback over the past 24 hours, but likely reflecting very short-term bulish exhaustion from the recent recovery activity, still holding above the April-May up trend line, retaining bull forces from the May up leg and intermediate-term rally from March, keeping the immediate risks higher for Thursday and likely into very early June.

The latter March surge above 320.06 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift, reinforce in late April above 324.39.

For Today:  

  • We see an upside bias for 326.60; break here aims for 327.53, maybe 328.00.
  • But below 325.10 quickly opens risk down to 324.75, then the 323.90/57 area.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 329.04.

  • Higher targets would be 330.07 and 340.00
  • What Changes This? Below 322.53 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

Daily EURHUF Chart

EURHUF Chart 2019-05-29

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