Spotlight on Pound Crosses (GBPSGD and GBPCHF)

Intermediate
  • Given ongoing concerns regarding a “no deal” Brexit or a snap UK General Election, the Pound (GBP) continues to slide lower against many major currencies, not just against the US Dollar (the much-watched Cable Forex Rate, GBPUSD).
  • These concerns have been heightened by the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May and a leadership contest for the Conservative party, which has increased uncertainty.
  • Here we spotlight the intermediate-term risks into June for The Pound versus T
  • the Singapore Dollar and against the Swiss Franc, GBPSGD and GBPCHF.

GBPSGD

A selloff throughout May down from 1.2961 through 1.7549 set an intermediate-term bear trend, reinforced more recently by the probe below the February 2019 swing low at 1.7352.

This leaves the irks lower for both early June and potentially through the month ahead.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .17171.

  • Lower targets would be 1.7016/00, 1.6674 and possibly 1.6232
  • What Changes This? Above 1.7555 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.7635 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily GBPSGD Chart

gbpsgd chart

GBPCHF

Nearly a one way plunge lower throughout May, breaking out from a multi-month Triangle type pattern, or even confirming an intermediate-term Double Top below 1.2915, with losses right into the end of May keeping risks lower for early June at least, likely beyond.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2529.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2419, 1.2305 and maybe toward 1.2000
  • What Changes This? Above 1.2796 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1/2936 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily GBPCHF Chart

gbpchf chart

Comments on this analysis


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