EUR PLN

EURPLN Currency pair flag

Latest EUR PLN Analysis

A focus on the Euro versus the Eurozone periphery (EURSEK, EURPLN, EURTRY)

  • The Euro has seen a strong rebound in early June versus the US Dollar (EURUSD through notable resistances at the 1.1264/65 peaks, as the US$ has weakened due to concerns about a deteriorating outlook for the US economy and a more dovish FOMC.
  • HOWEVER, the Euro remains vulnerable to further losses versus the Eurozone periphery currencies.
  • Here we focus on the intermediate-term downside risks for the Euro versus the Swedish Krona, the Polish Zloty and the Turkish Lira (EURSEK, EURPLN and EURTRY).

EURSEK

A low-level consolidation to start June after the selloff from mid-May that saw a reversal of the uptrend line from latter April and through numerous supports to reject the up leg from early May.

This activity leaves intermediate-term bearish pressures intact and sets the bias lower for early June, this week, and also for the month.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 10.566.

  • Lower targets would be 10.432 and 10.378
  • What Changes This? Above 10.726 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 10.849 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURSEK Chart

eursek

EURPLN

A plunge lower in latter May into early June has reinforced the roll lower in mid-May from 4.3139, from below the key March failure peak at 4.3160, to leave an intermediate-term downside risk within a broader consolidation.

The intermediate-term threat is to the lower end of the 2019 trading range, which would look to offer support between 4.2699 and 4.2589

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 4.2371.

  • Lower targets would be 4.2699 and maybe towards 4.2589.
  • What Changes This? Above 4.3039 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 4.3160 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURPLN Chart

eurpln

EURTRY

A late May plunge lower reinforced the earlier May reversal below the accelerated, up trend line from late March to confirming an intermediate-term top and an intermediate-term bear theme.

The push still lower into early June has reinforces both the short- and intermediate-term bear trends, leaving risks lower for both this week and at least into mid-June.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 6.4537.

  • Lower targets would be 6.2414, 6.0000 and maybe 5.9568
  • What Changes This? Above 6.8999 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 7.0321 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURTRY Chart

eurtry

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Other major currency pairs


BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
SELL - rate is expected to go down, i.e. the first currency is expected to lose value against the second currency.


EUR/PLN – Live and Historical Rates

The Euro/Polish Zloty pair isn’t considered a major or a commodity pair. While the EUR is indeed a major currency, the PLN is not. The EUR is in fact expected to replace the Zloty at one point. The above chart illustrates how many PLN one needs to purchase a EUR.

The EUR

When it comes to major currencies, the EUR is indeed a perfect fit. It is the second most traded currency in the world, after the USD, and it is the second largest reserve currency too. It is officially used by 21 countries in Europe, members of the biggest and most ambitious currency union ever. Still, despite its success story, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for the Euro. Lately especially, it has been caught in some dire headwinds, brought about  by the 2008 financial crises. Indeed, due to its structural intricacies and the disparate nature of Eurozone economies, the EUR proved to be a major brake on recovery. While the above mentioned crisis was indeed a global one, the Eurozone was by far the slowest to effectively recover from its ill-effects.

The PLN

The Polish Zloty is one of those currencies that are rather new, yet have roots that reach back through the centuries. Although this incarnation of the currency was only introduced in 1995, there were Zlotys used in the 14th and 15th centuries too. The Polish government exercises rather strict control over the PLN, keeping a watchful eye on its inflation, to ward off instability and to safeguard economic growth.

EURPLN Analysis

The EUR and the PLN are closely correlated, which is hardly surprising considering the geographical proximity and the fact that Poland is indeed bound by treaty to join the EUR one day. Another major trading partner of the country is Russia, so any developments on that front will impact the PLN too.