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Latest EUR SEK Analysis and Forecasts

A focus on the Euro versus the Eurozone periphery (EURSEK, EURPLN, EURTRY)

  • The Euro has seen a strong rebound in early June versus the US Dollar (EURUSD through notable resistances at the 1.1264/65 peaks, as the US$ has weakened due to concerns about a deteriorating outlook for the US economy and a more dovish FOMC.
  • HOWEVER, the Euro remains vulnerable to further losses versus the Eurozone periphery currencies.
  • Here we focus on the intermediate-term downside risks for the Euro versus the Swedish Krona, the Polish Zloty and the Turkish Lira (EURSEK, EURPLN and EURTRY).


A low-level consolidation to start June after the selloff from mid-May that saw a reversal of the uptrend line from latter April and through numerous supports to reject the up leg from early May.

This activity leaves intermediate-term bearish pressures intact and sets the bias lower for early June, this week, and also for the month.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 10.566.

  • Lower targets would be 10.432 and 10.378
  • What Changes This? Above 10.726 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 10.849 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURSEK Chart



A plunge lower in latter May into early June has reinforced the roll lower in mid-May from 4.3139, from below the key March failure peak at 4.3160, to leave an intermediate-term downside risk within a broader consolidation.

The intermediate-term threat is to the lower end of the 2019 trading range, which would look to offer support between 4.2699 and 4.2589

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 4.2371.

  • Lower targets would be 4.2699 and maybe towards 4.2589.
  • What Changes This? Above 4.3039 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 4.3160 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURPLN Chart



A late May plunge lower reinforced the earlier May reversal below the accelerated, up trend line from late March to confirming an intermediate-term top and an intermediate-term bear theme.

The push still lower into early June has reinforces both the short- and intermediate-term bear trends, leaving risks lower for both this week and at least into mid-June.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 6.4537.

  • Lower targets would be 6.2414, 6.0000 and maybe 5.9568
  • What Changes This? Above 6.8999 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 7.0321 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURTRY Chart


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EUR/SEK – Live and Historical Rates

The EUR/SEK pair is neither a major, nor a commodity currency pair. The Euro is obviously a major currency, while the SEK is not. The chart above illustrates the number of SEK one has to pay to buy a EUR.


Introduced in 1999, the Euro is currently the common currency of the Eurozone, which is indeed the largest economy in the world. Despite the fact that its story has been one of overwhelming success thus far, the EUR is increasingly viewed as a cumbersome construct, priced way to low for some of the Eurozone economies (Germany) and way too high for others (Greece), which acts as shackles on growth and which has to be reformed. The EUR is the second most traded currency in the world and it is the second largest reserve currency. It is currently the official legal tender of 21 countries, and 6 more are compelled by treaty to join in eventually. Interest towards joining the Eurozone has waned though, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, which exposed some of the vulnerabilities of the EUR.


First introduced under the authority of the Scandinavian Monetary Union in 1873, the Swedish Krone (or Crown) is theoretically supposed to be replaced by the EUR sometime. Sweden is indeed compelled by its EU accession treaty to join the common currency and to drop the SEK, but it has thus far ignored this obligation, despite the fact that – unlike Denmark – it does not have an opt-out in this regard.

Sweden’s economy is heavily dependent on trade with the Eurozone.

EURSEK Analysis

As an EU member, Sweden’s economy is heavily dependent on trade with other EU nations and with the Eurozone. Thus, the SEK is closely correlated with the EUR, which means that trading opportunities involving this pair will be few and far between. Machinery, automotive and timber product price-changes will have some impact on the EUR/SEK though.

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