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Forex Zone: Intermediate-term Euro forecasts – broadly bearish

EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, EURSEK and EURNOK forecasts

In this analysis we are going to spotlight the Euro in the aftermath of the substantial price action seen throughout global financial markets in March, April and into May, since the spread of the coronavirus, COVID-19 into Europe and the US.

Together with the impulsive moves across global stock markets, the Forex markets have seen significant price movements, with the Euro a notable mover.

We will look at the Euro against the US Dollar, the EURUSD Forex rate, but will also spotlight the Euro versus the Japanese Yen (EURJPY) plus against a number of the other major European currencies, with our EURGBP, EURCHF, EURSEK and EURNOK forecasts.

Macroeconomic backdrop

Global financial asset classes suffered a massive “risk off“ shock in March as the COVID-19 coronavirus spread from Asia, to Europe and the United States. Global stock markets plunged, whilst safe havens assets (such as Government bonds and Gold) surged higher.

In the Forex environment, most currencies plunged lower versus the US Dollar in March, as Forex markets saw a global thirst for US Dollars, with the US currency became the ultimate “flight to quality” currency.

April and early May has seen a shift to a “risk on” theme, with global stock markets rebounding, and the “risk currencies” the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars strengthening. But in this “risk on” scenario, the Euro has remained under negative pressures.

Technical Analysis of the Euro

The EURUSD Forex rate plunged lower in March with the global financial market panic as the US Dollar surged.

But the Euro was sideways and erratic in this “risk off“ phase versus the traditional safe havens, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, whilst strengthening against the European periphery, versus the GB Pound, the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone.

With the resumption of the “risk on” theme through April and into May, the Euro has been choppy, but overall negative against the US Dollar, but notably weakened against the European periphery.

EURUSD forecast

A very erratic, broad consolidation theme through April and into May for EURUSD, after the plunging selloff in the first half of March and the surging recovery in latter March.

The underlying theme stays bearish from the negative April consolidation, whilst below 1.1039.

An even more bearish intermediate-term view for EURUSD in May needs a push below 1.0725 and 1.0633.

This can offer a move to 1.0500, 1.0340, maybe 1.0000 (parity).

What changes this? Above 1.1039 aims for 1.1147 and 1.1367 chart targets.

Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD chart

EURJPY forecast

An erratic selloff for EURJPY since the start of 2020, with the latter March, mid-April and early May bearish accelerations sustaining the overall bearish theme.

A still more bearish intermediate-term EURJPY view for May needs a push below 114.42.

This can offer a move to 112.08, 110.00 and 109.53 chart targets.

What changes this? Above 117.78 chart and retrace barriers aims for 119.04 and 119.71 chart and retrace targets.

Daily EURJPY chart

EURJPY chart

EURGBP forecast

A negative consolidation theme for the EURGBP Forex rate through April and into May, after the plunging selloff in latter March.

The underlying theme stays negative from this selloff, whilst below dual peaks at .8864.

An even more bearish intermediate-term EURGBP forecast for May needs a push below .8671 and key .8621 supports.

This can offer a move to .8282 and .8000 targets.

What changes this? Above .8864 aims for the .8987 and .9183 retrace targets.

Daily EURGBP chart

EURGBP chart

EURCHF forecast

An erratic, but negative consolidation phase for EURCHF through April and now into May, after the early 2020 plunge and negative extensions in March and April.

Although erratic, the EURCHF forecast remains negative from this early 2020 selloff, whilst below 1.0635/55, retrace /chart resistances.

A still more bearish intermediate-term view for May needs a push below 1.0510.

This can offer a move to 1.0315, 1.0235 and maybe parity, 1.0000.

What changes this? Above 1.0635/55 aims for the 1.0710/16 chart/ retrace target, maybe 1.0788.

Daily EURCHF chart

EURCHF chart

EURSEK forecast

An erratic grind lower through April and a plunge at the end of the month and into early May, to now push below the 78.6% retracement (at 10.6080), of the whole rally from the December 2019 low (at 10.3972) to the mid-March spike high (at 11.3822).

An even more bearish intermediate-term view for May needs a push below the 10.4882/1715 area to aim then for 10.3972 and 10.1261/0963 supports from 2018.

What changes this? Above 10.8991 aims for the 11.1093 chart target.

Daily EURSEK chart

EURSEK chart

EURNOK forecast

A surging rally and then a plunging selloff in March for the EURNOK Forex rate, to probe the 618% retracement of the Q1 2020 rally, at 11.0848.

A still more bearish intermediate-term EURNOK view for May would see a more aggressive break below this support (at 11.0848), to then aim for retrace/ chart targets at 10.5180/4350 and maybe as low as 10.0013, even 9.7959.

What changes this? A more positive intermediate-term view for May needs a push above 11.6968 for 11.8185, maybe then even towards 12.7562.

Daily EURNOK chart

EURNOK chart

The intermediate-term Euro outlook: a summary of our Forex forecasts

In conclusion then, we see a bearish environment for the Euro against most of these major currencies, but particularly with risks skewed towards a weakening of EUR versus the Japanese Yen EURJPY), the Swedish Krona (EURSEK) and Norwegian Krone (EURNOK).


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EUR/SEK – Live and Historical Rates

The EUR/SEK pair is neither a major, nor a commodity currency pair. The Euro is obviously a major currency, while the SEK is not. The chart above illustrates the number of SEK one has to pay to buy a EUR.

The EUR

Introduced in 1999, the Euro is currently the common currency of the Eurozone, which is indeed the largest economy in the world. Despite the fact that its story has been one of overwhelming success thus far, the EUR is increasingly viewed as a cumbersome construct, priced way to low for some of the Eurozone economies (Germany) and way too high for others (Greece), which acts as shackles on growth and which has to be reformed. The EUR is the second most traded currency in the world and it is the second largest reserve currency. It is currently the official legal tender of 21 countries, and 6 more are compelled by treaty to join in eventually. Interest towards joining the Eurozone has waned though, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, which exposed some of the vulnerabilities of the EUR.

The SEK

First introduced under the authority of the Scandinavian Monetary Union in 1873, the Swedish Krone (or Crown) is theoretically supposed to be replaced by the EUR sometime. Sweden is indeed compelled by its EU accession treaty to join the common currency and to drop the SEK, but it has thus far ignored this obligation, despite the fact that – unlike Denmark – it does not have an opt-out in this regard.

Sweden’s economy is heavily dependent on trade with the Eurozone.

EURSEK Analysis

As an EU member, Sweden’s economy is heavily dependent on trade with other EU nations and with the Eurozone. Thus, the SEK is closely correlated with the EUR, which means that trading opportunities involving this pair will be few and far between. Machinery, automotive and timber product price-changes will have some impact on the EUR/SEK though.

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